How sick are victims of the Wuhan virus?

[Hari_Seldon]

I know that 2% of the victims are dying, but how bad does the disease feel to the “typical” victim, assuming there is such a thing? I know what the flu feels like. Is it worse? How long do people take to recover? Are there after effects? I have read nothing except the number of cases and of deaths, both of which I suspect are under reported.

[KarlGauss]

No one knows. Or at least, no one knows (yet) how many mild or even symptomatic infections there are and, critically, whether people who are asymptomatic can transmit it.

There is a good article on this today in the NYT by someone who would appear to know what he’s talking about.

Some excerpts:

What do we most need to know next? For epidemiologists who track infectious diseases, the most pressing concerns are how to estimate the lethality of the disease and who is susceptible; getting detailed information on how it spreads; and evaluating the success of control measures so far.

No. 1 is the “clinical iceberg” question: How much of it is hidden below the surface? Because the outbreak is still evolving, we can’t yet see the totality of those infected. Out of view is some proportion of mildly infected people, with minor symptoms or no symptoms, who no one knows are infected.

Last month, to start understanding the severity of this illness, my team assisted Chinese experts in analyzing the initial 425 confirmed cases of infection. We learned that 65 percent of people had neither visited a market nor been exposed to another person showing pneumonia like symptoms, which implied, among other things, the possibility that some infected people don’t suffer from obvious symptoms — meaning the illness isn’t always severe.

Along with getting a grasp on the level of severity is figuring out susceptibility, or who is most at risk for infection. The data so far indicates that this would include older adults, the obese and people with underlying medical conditions. There are few reports of children becoming infected. But are they not showing symptoms, or are they immune? And could they infect others as silent carriers?

[Chronos]

You don’t know that 2% of the victims are dying. That could be an underestimate or an overestimate: Under, because some of the victims might just not have died yet. Over, because it’s 2% of the diagnosed victims, and nobody knows how many people have it without being diagnosed.

All the comparisons I’ve seen have made it sound similar to the flu, in terms of symptoms.

[bordelond]

(From the "Are you concerned … " thread in IMHO)

Stumbled upon a link that addresses my question. Looking at the Wuhan coronavirus from a glass-half-full perspective, 4 out of 5 people infected will get only mild cold symptoms (CNBC 2/10/2020):

10:34 am: WHO officials say 15% of all patients get pneumonia
The World Health Organization’s Dr. Sylvia Briand told reporters the disease produces mild cold symptoms in about 80% of the cases they’ve seen so far. About 15% of the people who have contracted the virus have ended up with pneumonia, with 3% to 5% of all patients needing intensive care.

[Gray_Ghost]

@Hari_Seldon

I know that 2% of the victims are dying, but how bad does the disease feel to the “typical” victim, assuming there is such a thing? I know what the flu feels like. Is it worse? How long do people take to recover? Are there after effects? I have read nothing except the number of cases and of deaths, both of which I suspect are under reported.

January 31, 2019 articlein the New England Journal of Medicine, First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States, which goes into detail about the treatment and experience of the first NCoV patient in Snohomish County, Washington, USA. Might be of interest.

From the article, the patient was pretty damned sick, and absent hospital medical intervention, probably would have died from pneumonia. I’m not a doctor, but that’s the story the article told to me.

[Hari_Seldon]

[quote=“KarlGauss, post:2, topic:847750”]

No one knows. Or at least, no one knows (yet) how many mild or even symptomatic infections there are and, critically, whether people who are asymptomatic can transmit it.

There is a good article on this today in the NYT by someone who would appear to know what he’s talking about.

Very interesting. It was not, as far as I can tell, in the print edition. Maybe I should stop paying for that and become an online only subscriber.

[bob_2]

One British carrier has been identified:

A man linked to several coronavirus cases in the UK has said he has recovered from the illness.

Steve Walsh, who remains in an isolation unit in hospital, says his thoughts are with others who have contracted the virus.

He said his family have been asked to isolate themselves “as a precaution”.

Mr Walsh, from Hove in east Sussex, caught the virus in Singapore and is thought to have infected 11 others at a French ski resort.

Five of the cases linked to Mr Walsh are in England, five are in France and one is in Mallorca, Spain.

It takes the total number of people infected in the UK to eight.

Two of the new UK cases are understood to be GPs - one of whom works at the County Oak medical centre, in Brighton, east Sussex.

Mr Walsh contracted the coronavirus at a conference in Singapore, before travelling to a French ski resort on his way back to the UK.

In a statement from hospital, Mr Walsh thanked the NHS for their care.

He said he contacted his GP, NHS 111 and Public Health England, on learning he had been exposed to a confirmed case of coronavirus.

He added: "I was advised to attend an isolated room at hospital, despite showing no symptoms, and subsequently self-isolated at home as instructed.

“When the diagnosis was confirmed I was sent to an isolation unit in hospital, where I remain, and, as a precaution, my family was also asked to isolate themselves.”

What are the symptoms of coronavirus and what can help stop its spread?
The main signs of infection are fever (high temperature) and a cough as well as shortness of breath and breathing difficulties.

[gnoitall]

The nightmare scenario would be discovering a prevalence toward completely asymptomatic carriers who can infect without being sick, a la typhoid Mary.

No evidence of that so far, AFAIK.

[MEBuckner]

Another article today, from the Washington Post: Most coronavirus cases are mild, complicating the response.

@The Washington Post

The coronavirus has killed more than 1,100 people, brought a huge swath of central China to a standstill and rattled millions around the globe with hints of a pandemic seen in Hollywood fantasies.

But the virus’s destructive potential has overshadowed one encouraging aspect of this outbreak: So far, about 82 percent of the cases — including all 13 in the United States — have been mild, with symptoms that require little or no medical intervention. And that proportion may be an undercount.

The article also notes that “healthy younger adults” cope better with the disease (by contrast the Spanish flu infamously had disproportionately high mortality among young adults) and “there have been few fatalities among children” from the 2019 coronavirus. Matthew Frieman, a virologist at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, is quoted as saying “Not to diminish its importance — it’s in the middle between SARS and the common cold”. (SARS killed over 9% of people who got it, and MERS–Middle East respiratory syndrome–has a nearly 35% reported mortality rate).