I was watching a Nova episode about dogs a while back, and part of it focused on an effort (in, I think, Russia) to domesticate foxes. They took a large group of wild foxes, ranked them according to aggressiveness and friendliness towards humans, and then allowed only the human-friendliest 10% to breed. Then they followed the same procedure with each subsequent, resultant generation. After seven or eight generations, they had bred foxes that were innately human-friendly enough to be domestic pets, with behavior very similar to that of dogs. I thought that was pretty cool.
So what I wanted to know was whether (and to what extent) a similar effort directed toward feline and canine intelligence could succeed. The Wiki article on dog intelligence highlights the kinds of problems one faces when trying to define and measure animal intelligence, but it seems to me that some at least tolerably valid tests of underlying learning, logic, and/or problem-solving capacity could be constructed. But are there likely to be insurmountable evolutionary roadblocks that prevent cats or dogs from achieving a qualitatively different level of intelligence in a reasonable amount of time (say a few hundred years), regardless of any directed effort we might make?
Do we have anyone here with a background in evolutionary biology or animal husbandry? Or at least some smart people willing to take an educated guess?
Some dog breeds were bred for jobs that require more intelligence than others, and those breeds do indeed tend to be more intelligent. I think the general consensus is that border collies are among the most intelligent dogs, though not necessarily the easiest to train.
So I suppose the question here is, “What is the limit to that capacity short of any evolution?” Anyway, if there is an answer, how is it to be expressed? “Dogs can be bred to this, but only this, and no more.”?
Working on the assumption that any hereditary mutation can be reversed, it is theoretically possible to breed a dog (or cat) that is exactly as smart as a human: simply breed a dog back to the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of dogs and humans, and then breed forward to humans. This will require a phenomenal amount of time and resources, plus sufficient knowledge of the genome of all ancestors between the MRCA on the one hand and modern humans and dogs on the other.
In a sense, but I believe what Whack-a-Mole means is that distilling all the best smart doggy genes into a single breed via ordinary breeding practices wouldn’t get you much past Border Collies. In order to get significant gains in intelligence you are going to need mutations (or gene splicing) resulting in more smarts.
My WAG is that you’d hit a plateau quite quickly. We’re not quite sure how or why our ancestors got so smart so fast, but communication – being able to share information as well as the potential for deceit – cooperation and competition appear to have been significant factors. Once we were pitting our minds against one another, there was a runaway effect.
Not that you’re talking about dogs becoming as smart as humans, I just mean that before you establish “the three Cs”, progress might be quite slow. And these social effects won’t come about from doing tests on individual dogs.
Our Border Collie would pick up a new trick with 3-5 repetitions. Motivating him was difficult, though. Plus he’d learn stuff you didn’t want him to learn.
Our Golden Retriever picks stuff up more slowly, but is more willing to please. Motivating him isn’t a problem; but it takes more effort to get it to sink into his brain.
If they are too smart they get weeded out pretty quickly. Smart dogs are a bugger to train, as my mate the vet says “I only have problems with smart dogs”.
Depends on what your definition of “smart” is. You seem to assume that existing animals are lacking in intelligence.
The reality is that given the context of their environment, animals have developed all the intelligence they need to survive. Also, within any population of animals, you will have a wide range of “intelligence”.
Looking at the mass of humanity, how would you define a “smart” human?
Also, look at the context. From what I have read, based on “intelligence”, the current dwellers of the Amazon jungles and New Guinea highlands are on average of far greater intelligence than the average modern city dweller.
Similarly, I know people who have PhD’s in particle physics who are dumber than a bag of doorknobs.
So when you want to breed something for “smartness”, are you really only asking for a creature whose behavior will conform to your will and expectations?