The importance of the Senate has been demonstrated well, these last 4 years. They serve as the primary check on the Executive branch and, thus, the primary guarantor of good government.
270towin.com has two maps available:
Current polling of the states
The consensus view of where things will end up by voting day
In essence, these maps are saying that the people of Colorado are strongly blue right now, but history tells us that they’ll be pushed way back to the right over the next few months, via advertising and political pressure; Montana is already friendly to the left but will become more friendly to the right; Arizona is leaning left and will be a hard push to move rightwards but should go into balance and be a toss-up.
I would, personally, advise that you ignore the Presidential race and contribute money to the Senate races of Arizona and Colorado, first, and Montana if you feel like getting rid of money. Which side to donate to, I leave to your preference, but those would seem to be the battleground states for the Senate.
Any analysis of how to win the senate that doesn’t mention Maine or North Carolina is seriously flawed.
Arizona, Colorado, and Montana are not enough if Doug Jones (D) loses in Alabama which is all but certain.
With the loss of Alabama, team D needs four of the following six seats to get to 50 senate seats (from easiest D win to hardest):
Colorado
Arizona
Maine
North Carolina
Montana
Iowa
The tipping point is likely North Carolina (or maybe Maine). That’s where donations will be most effective if your goal is for Democrats to control the senate. If you draw the battle lines in Colorado or Arizona you have already conceded defeat.
Five of these races are needed if you want to control the chamber outright regardless of which party wins the presidency.
Can’t we take Kentucky too? Beating Moscow Mitch and Senator Collins in November would make me very happy for a very long time.
A few news outlets called Kentucky for McGrath but it’s close and only 83% are counted. She was expected to win easily.
The OP must be giving good advice because it’s what I’ve been doing all year. Although I also donate to the DSCC so they can flourish.