how do you think the iraqi government is going to try to prevent soldiers from deserting or surrendering? will the government hold memebers of each soldiers family hostage with threats of execution if they surrender? What leverage are they going to use? I dont’ see how they couldn’t, they must know just like we do that most of their troops don’t want to fight. They must have some plan in action to prevent troops from surrendering.
I wouldn’t put Saddam above decimation. If they concentrate their forces in urban areas, the close proximity to secret police will probably be able to control the situation to a degree.