If he’s really saying this and continues to say it in the debates (with, perhaps a nod to the Evil Greedy Businessmen too) then he might as well start preparing his concession speech now because I think it will be political suicide…except with the left wing faithful. Anyone with a clue knows that it’s not all ‘the fault of the Pubs and deregulators’, nor is it all the financial markets fault. I think even the unwashed masses are starting to jib to the fact that it was the government who gets a lot of the blame for setting up this situation, and that while the Republicans allowed the situation to continue it was the Dems who started the ball rolling…and ALSO allowed it to continue.
Obama would be better off acknowledging the problems caused by the government (both parties) and actually saying what he would do to ‘fix’ it…in specific terms. Playing the blame game at this point I think will be counter productive.
C’mon…I know you know that political reality needs to bear no resemblance to actual reality. As it happens people “think” the Reps are more to blame for this mess than the Dems by a 2:1 ratio (cite). Just like some people “know” Obama is a Muslim or “know” we found WMDs in Iraq. We may know better here but since when have you seen things like facts sway the public?
The number of people who are going to feel screwed by the current meltdown will far outnumber the business men at the top. The people want someone to blame and heads to roll no matter the facts or even their own complicity. This is America…it is always someone else’s fault.
Obama has a tendency to think before answering a question…and although this is usually a smart thing to do, it sometimes comes across as if he is unsure.
McCain has a tendency not to think before answering a question…and although this makes it seem like he is firmly in control, it also puts him at risk for shooting himself in the foot with an incorrect answer or factual gaffe.
The “winner” will come from public perception, not so much from substance.
If Obama can be perceived as a thoughtful, intelligent candidate - in control and solid on the facts, it will be a big boost for him. He also has a certain charm and wit that he needs to display. But if he comes across as a stuttering college professor, it will not help.
If McCain can muddle through and not make any major blunders, he will show he hasn’t totally hit senility yet and people will feel more confident. And say what you want about McCain, but he can play “blue collar worker” like an Oscar-winning actor. But if he shows a flicker of that temper and pissy attitude, or makes a serious gaffe and then try to stammer his way out of it, it might make people wonder how he would react in a real crisis.
The debates are the modern equivalent of throwing Christians to the lions. Nobody really wants the Christians to win, they want to see the lions create a bloodbath. For that reason alone, it will come down to who created the wittiest snappy reply (for sound bites in the news that night) or who made the major gaffe (for late night hosts to repeat for several weeks afterwards).
In other words, it is not who wins, it is who fucks up bigger. That is the American yardstick. If neither totally screws up, it will be considered a draw.
Some comments regarding your perception regarding the polls.
They have, in fact, swung back and forth these last few weeks, but just once. Obama had a solid consistent narrow lead which swung away in the bounce from the GOP convention and the novelty of the Palin pick and which quickly swung back into the stable baseline range. That swing back and forth was the only significant volatility this cycle has seen since April.
Most of the polls use “likely voter” screens which count those who have voted in previous election cycles more than those who have not. These polls are likely very accurate if voters behave as they have in other cycles, during which those more likely to vote for Obama have not been “traditionally reliable” - the potential for systemic error comes in from the other direction if anything. If newly engaged voting demographics - the younger voters, Hispanic voters, etc - actually do come out this time then the polling will have significantly undercounted them.
Thanks, I read it and disagree. I believe this has been ‘debunked’ in the same way that Creationists ‘debunk’ the theory of Evolution from time to time. I concede YMMV…which seems more of a concession than you are willing to make, ehe?