How will people react if Covid-19 flares up when the lockdown ends?
The first thing they’ll do is storm the grocery store and buy all of the motherfucking toilet paper. Trust me.
I dream of the motherfucking toilet paper. We didn’t horde, two packages we ordered by mail in early April are still delayed, and it can’t be bought by curbside pickup at our groceries. That’ll learn me to trust supply chains.
Yes. We’ve driven the numbers down substantially. We’re better off in every way than we were 8 weeks ago. the death rate went from doubling every 3 days to every 71 days. The hospital crunch in NYC is over and the barely used medical ship departed a week ago. I’m not worried about the virus because the numbers are down and I am in control of my environment. I can wear an N-95 mask, wash my hands and steer clear of crowds.
And as a side note, I’m nearing retirement. I would prefer the younger generation remain solvent because they’re either paying my social security or investing in the market which keeps my 401K afloat. My financial well-being is tied to theirs.
My numbering.
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Dead customers don’t buy stuff.
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Businesses opening early can be shut-down quickly. A couple of nearby bars tried that. Sheriff yellow-taped their doors; liquor licenses were pulled; they’re gone now.
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State and local health officials decide. Our county will reopen when the health chief says it’s safe. I trust her and apparently the county supervisors and cities do too.
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Mass-openings can result in mass shut-downs if officials are vigilant. If not, expect infection and death rates to spike and more economic misery to ensue.
Defying safe distancing is iffy. Many in my rural (R) county of ~40k non-prisoners don’t emerge safely in public but many more do. So far: 8 cases, 7 recoveries, and 0 deaths. But under 500 test results are in so we don’t fucking know the infection rate. Our low numbers don’t immunize us from a breakout - following guidelines PREVENTS breakouts. Ounce of prevention vs pound of cure, etc.
I shop after 5pm just to see how well stocked the stores are. I’ve been seeing toilet paper for weeks. Almost bought some but resisted the urge.
You should be able to buy some in-store in the early hours.
Thanks. I won’t be going into stores any time soon. I had a bad, intractable dry cough that exacerbated my asthma from the beginning of October through the beginning of April, and with my reduced lung capacity from stray radiation treatment, that’s enough to keep me self-isolating until it’s safer.
Today, the papers here reported that Norway and the Prime Minister has been invited into the “First Movers” group. This is a group of fast-reacting nations that have managed to get virus numbers low. So far the group consits of Australia, Austria, Norway, Greece, Denmark, Israel, Singapore and the Czech Republic but it is expected to grow as more nations get their Covid numbers to low or zero.
Cite (Google translate probably an advantage)
One of the main subject of group discussions is opening up for tourism, travel and trade between nations of “similar risk profiles” i.e. low corona risks. I do speculate that we might be seeing the outlines of post-covid travel and to some degree trade here. One where nations who cannot control their public health simply won’t be allowed to participate.
Australia and New Zealand are talking tentatively about a shared bubble that allows travel and tourism between only those two countries. Both countries have daily new cases in the very low range [about 1-2 dozen per week] and NZ a lot less. There is also discussion of opening up specific Pacific Island countries that have it under control, which would be good as they are otherwise economically very vulnerable.
Having a couple of dozen cases a week in a population the size of New Zealand’s does not strike me as a good metric for opening the gates given how contagious this thing is.
Nah, it’s the fact that Australia probably won’t press it all the way to Covid elimination that should give the New Zealanders pause. If I were them I’d give it a lot more discussing and waiting before mixing it with us. NZ itself has to be one of the safest places on the planet right now
The EU seems to be getting in on it now. Get the virus beaten low enough, you get to travel. And presumably trade for the more risky items.
It’s signalling that they’re fine with COVID-19 because they believe it’s not impacting the people who vote for them.
That will change. Although COVID-19 is now disproportionately impacting people in large urban centers and mostly people who have to work to keep the lights on, the virus won’t stop at any fence. The virus itself is not racist. It kills mostly aging men, and it puts a wide range of other people in the hospital for weeks.
The virus will find its way into suburbia and rural America, and when it does, it’s going to require far fewer deaths to have the same local impact because hospitals in these areas have fewer resources.
I can already see that a number of people are terrified at the prospect of coming out of their shells and resuming a fairly normal life, and the disease hasn’t even rebounded yet. I think they’ll completely freak if it comes to that.
If school resumes normally in August, and I’m thinking it will because the virus world is virtually dormant during the late summer, people are going to be faced with a big decision. If they’re terrified of standing in the same room with me with masks on, how are they going to bring themselves to stand in front of a classroom full of children? What happens when somebody coughs or sneezes? Stay tuned.
The CSU system in California announces that all fall classes will be remotely taught.
It’s already happening. It’s just like our ongoing war with Eastasia, the news is being suppressed.
The problem is that even if New Zealand completely eliminates SARS-CoV-2 in its population, their economy is heavily dependent upon tourism. Either they are going to have to completely retool their economy for self-sufficiency (not impossible; they’re a net exporter of food, lumber, wool, and warrior princesses, but they are light on manufacturing, heavy industry, and are a net importer of petroleum) or they are going to have to reopen and accept a certain level contagion.
Not only do rural hospitals have much fewer resources but many rural health systems are already collapsing with hospitals and urgent care centers closing. And rural areas are demographically skewed toward older populations with higher incidences of underlying conditions.
VOX: “The coronavirus may hit rural America later — and harder”
This just isn’t true. Certain pathogens like seasonal influenza are less prone to spread in hot weather for a number of different reasons but “the virus world” (an area of ecology that we have only begun to catalogue and characterize) is quite active in all conditions in which humans can comfortably exist and beyond. Viruses are quite robust in terrestrial conditions and the seasonality of contagion is more dependent upon the specific pathogenesis and behaviors in the host population. Despite the political promotion of the idea that the COVID-19 pandemic will subside over summer, no virologist or epidemiologist is saying this because this is a novel virus and we don’t know how it behaves but it does seem to be spreading just fine in tropical and subtropical counties as does the related MERS-CoV virus and many other betacoronaviruses.
Stranger
You shouldn’t expect rural America to be hit anywhere near as bad as big cities, simply because the population density won’t support mass transmission.
When I lived on the farm, we only even saw other people once or twice a week, when we visited neighbors or went into town for supplies. And then we’d interact with someone at the gas station, a couple of clerks at the grocery and hardware stores, then it was back to the farm.
I would expect some outbreaks at churches, however. Singing side by side in pews is a recipe for disaster. But even then, because the parishioners will go home to their farms and get sick there, the spread should be more limited. Not zero, but nothing like the spread caused by, say, the New York subway system.
I wouldn’t expect the infection rate to be super high in a rural locality, but I would expect rural hospitals to be more vulnerable to collaspe than urban hospitals.
Rural inhabitats are also more likely to have the risk factors linked with symptom severity than urban dwellers.
Interesting. What are you thinking those would be?
Age, if nothing else. Rural counties have 18% of their population over 65; cities have only 13%. Diabetes is also significantly more common. They also have less access to doctors and more poverty.