My question is, what are the likely roles to be replaced by robots?
Looking further into the future, is it likely we’ll see greater than 50% of the Army converted to robot positions in our lifetime? Especially combat roles?
I’m asking this question specifically about the Army because it seems the most difficult task for robots to replace ground operations versus sea and air. Perhaps also the most crucial, in terms of saving the lives of combat troops at high risk of injury or death.
A largely robotic military means leaders will show less restraint when going to war. Seems the primary reason Americans don’t like wars right now is due to our own soldiers dying and sympathy for returning veterans. Other considerations, such as:
casualties on the other side
strategic sense, either practical or moral
cost
who benefits
effects on America’s image/soft power
are of far smaller concern. Being anti-war will be much more difficult in this climate.
Interesting. I wonder if this newfound combination of hard power and immunity from international backlash will make victory by military means the go-to option.
Part of me is concerned about the potential increase in conflicts. But my other side feels emboldened by the opportunity to finally be able to fix undesirable parts of the world like Iraq and Somalia by brute force.
It’s probably useful to remember that the majority of troops are not in direct combat roles. A robot in a distribution warehouse for the Army isn’t much different than one in an Amazon warehouse. Any robot that can reduce the manual labor in the tail give you a chance to increase the tooth to tail ratio.
I’m thinking that robots will replace mules in the infantry. Right now they are expecting soldiers to carry really big loads, but stuff like light artillery and ammunition for it was once carried by mules and elephants. I’m think of heavy machine guns now: those guys carry a lot of weight, and it makes them less mobile.
You already have drones forming a major part of the current anti-insurgency strategy.
To all intents and purposes they are robots and I can also imagine fully/partly autonomous or ROV land vehicles to be in use within 20 years.
It depends what war you want to fight though. To hold terrain you ultimately have to have boots on the ground and I can’t see that changing anytime soon. (though more heavy duty drones and ROVs could make that task less dangerous)
If you just want to keeping slapping the enemy then drones are fine (by that I mean fit-for-purpose, I’m not making a value judgement)
Of course the flip side of cheaper and better automation and robotics is that it also becomes available to the bad guys. Don’t know when it’ll happen but for certain there will be a terrorist drone strike as soon as it becomes practical to do so.
AFAIK the robot part enters when communications is disrupted or lost, then the robot part takes over and guides the drone to base and a safe landing. In normal conditions the drone’s actions are still coming from the virtual human pilot on the ground.
But I can see where is that headed. Eventually the military will want more autonomy for a drone if countermeasures made for it become more effective at jamming transmissions and the drones are the most reliable air support in the area.
We are seeing DARPA and other groups making robots that are past the concept stage now. Currently prototypes are being made for support only but I bet that they will eventually turn into the “boots on the ground”.
I do think so too, but such devices depend on a lot of infrastructure and commitment from the enemy, once an attack like that is made then there will be lots of evidence pointing at the guilty parties. (Of course this depends also on having leaders that do look at most of the evidence and not just the little evidence that supports their prejudged conclusions)
With more robots in the service, GIs wouldn’t have to waste time practicing marching for parades and passing in reviews that are a waste of time also. They could just have the robots do that crap.
Some people are predicting that by 2050 up to half of all Americans will be, not just unemployed, but UNEMPLOYABLE because of automation and roboticization. In which case, the drones and robots will probably be used to shoot US while we riot because we have no money or food.
I think this is about right, at least for the near future. I’ve seen projects that the military is developing that are basically a mule to carry equipment in/injured soldiers out of rough terrain.
As far as turning that into a weapon, I think friend-or-foe identification will be a problem. Even humans have a hard time doing that these days. If you were going to use it as an mobile area denial weapon, it probably won’t be as unpopular as a mine, but it won’t be as cheap or effective, either.
Why would a robot mule be a good idea for warfare? They’re relatively slow-moving and make great targets. For clearing the enemy out of cities or rough terrain I’d say the optimal thing might be something like those drones Amazon is planning to use as home delivery vehicle, only faster and carrying grenades and cameras, and painted in camouflage colors. You get an auditorium full of operators well away from your theater of war and then send the drones in by the thousands, flying at high speeds, changing directions unexpectedly, juking and jiving as it were, and shooting up and blowing up the enemy. If one gets shot down, no big deal, they’re cheap, you just have its operator launch another from the mothership. I should think it would make urban warfare hellish for the other guys.
Like the Legged Squad Support System? Because it can carry hundreds of pounds of supplies for a squad and navigate uneven terrain. I don’t know how vulnerable they are to small arms fire, but I’m guessing it takes more to put them down than for a human or horse.
These military bots are cool and all, but I’m waiting for the gray goo.
I don’t think your hypothetical robot is a counter argument to a robot that’s actually in testing. I think autonomous hunter-killer drones are a pretty bad idea in general, and I don’t know of anyone who’s testing them.
As to why use a ground robot instead of a delivery drone? A robot mule can carry more than an aerial one, for starters. After it’s delivered, it also carries it around for you. In urban warfare, they’d use a truck. The robot mule is for where trucks can’t go. The ones I have seen move about as fast as a soldier does, while it’s loaded.
