I’ll also say this, delegate wise there is little difference between Rubio and Kasich. Rubio did really well in South Carolina and got 0 delegates. There’s a debate on 2/25, and if Rubio doesn’t do well in Nevada that may be all the justification that Kasich needs to stay in and make a big pitch on 2/25 that he should be the guy everyone is getting behind, not Rubio. Anyway, we’ll see.
I think now that we’re starting to see evidence that Trump is going to get at least some of the supporters of anyone who drops out, it isn’t enough for the other candidates to just coalesce into a “not Trump” camp. To be honest, and I’m guilty of this, I think a lot of people significantly underestimated the fact that Trump was going to get at least some portion of the supporters of anyone who dropped out. I assumed most of the establishment lane for example would have a very low percentage of voters who had Trump as their second pick, but polling on this shows that while he’s not the “first 2nd pick” for any establishment lane candidate, he is > 10% for several of them (including Bush who has dropped out.) He’s a huge favorite among Carson and Cruz supporters as a second pick, the two guys likely to get weaker in the coming weeks.
So basically it’s not enough for Rubio to just scream that “he’s the one” and the party to lean on Kasich and beg Carson to go home. I think they need to find a way to reduce Trump’s vote share base, because that really attacks the problem. If you can’t do that, I think the idea of getting “100% of all votes from other candidates as they drop out” is actually pie in the sky, that to me seems more unlikely than directly attacking Trump and trying to find a way to reduce his vote base.
The real question is whether any other candidate will be able to pick up Trump voters if he eventually loses. Those guys seem to be fully committed at this point and unlikely to be anywhere as excited for anyone else.
Can you link to some stories that aren’t from Democrat-oriented sites? Or sites that support his Republican opponents?
Have any of the GOP establishment who aren’t supporting Trump’s opponents actually come out and said that they’re against Trump?
I was surprised to hear Larry Sabato say on NPR this morning that the only way to stop Trump is if everyone but Cruz drops out and all the other candidates and the establishment get behind Cruz (as if). I wondered why he didn’t say Rubio could alternately be the beneficiary; but I suppose it’s what Martin Hyde says: Cruz’s voters tend to have Trump as their second choice while Rubio’s do not. If his analysis is correct, people are pricing it all wrong at Betfair, where Rubio is given about a 40% chance at the nomination, Trump 50%, and Kasich and Cruz get between two and three percent each.
Some states have three superdelegates (the state’s two Republican National Committee members and the head of the state’s Republican Party); others have none.
We have a Trump Voter holding forth in the Pit right now. It seems doubtful that he would support any other candidate.
There’s no way they can topple Trump without trying to force an open convention. If either Rubio or Cruz drops out to help the other, Trump will eat up a good bit of both of their support. Many Rubio people may simply not vote in the primary when the options are Cruz and Trump. The best strategy for the establishment is leaving everyone in (except maybe Carson).
Both Cruz and Rubio must significantly step up their game. First Cruz must win in Texas. If Trump wins, it’s over. Then Kasich must win Ohio, where he trails by a bit. Also Rubio must win Florida. If they lose any of those states, it’s probably over, but if they win its a possibility they force an open convention where the hacks will try to nominate Rubio or Paul Ryan or Romney (just throwing names out). The problem will be the Trump maniacs at the convention. They would simply walk out if anyone but Trump gets the nomination. I’m sure the Trump campaign has a contingency for that situation.
It maybe all comes down to whether Trump would agree to play kingmaker.
It appears they have enlisted Romney. His last few Tweets, like this one, have been pretty scathing toward The Donald. Perusing his timeline, it doesn’t look to me like he normally does this kind of thing.
The long knives came out last night. Romney has just shown us the country made the right decision 4 years ago.
Who cares what Romney has to say except for the establishment Republican types that Trump is running against? Rubio and Romney can high-five each other and say “Sick burn!” while everyone else remembers Romney as the guy who had to be trolled into giving up his taxes, thinks half of America is a bunch of parasites and overwhelmingly lost the last election.
I think at this point, it comes down to a question of what the party’s goals are. Why do they want to stop Trump? Is it because they want to maximize their chances of winning this election, or do they want to keep the party stronger in the long term? Because a brokered convention that does not choose Trump, despite him having a 40something plurality, might possibly salvage the party’s chances this year, it would absolutely destroy the party in the process.
I think within the GOP primary electorate, his word carries more weight than you might think.
I think this is a far different GOP primary electorate than usual as evidenced by the very high turnout rates compared to 2012. But maybe Romney will be more influential than George W Bush, Fox News or the Pope.
Lookslike they just sent Mitt Romney to be the enforcer.
Epic landslide in the making: https://twitter.com/JonahNRO/status/703403950154842112
To answer the OP: nothing much:
Inside the Republican Party’s Desperate Mission to Stop Donald Trump:
Really, the “establishment” does not have much authority within the party. Their problems were compounded by indecisiveness.
Right here.
Wow, that is getting serious.