It’s interesting that the Republican Party since at least Reagan is the real architect of their own fiasco. They’ve been preaching for decades that government wasn’t to be trusted, and they’ve gotten that message across quite effectively.
But somehow, the Party seemed to think that their message would only apply to Democratic candidates and elected officials. Instead, their base has embraced it for candidates of both parties, and the Republican establishment is left twisting in the wind.
[They’ll invent a new branch of mathematics:
](http://www.theonion.com/article/gop-statisticians-develop-new-branch-math-formulat-52463)
This clearly indicates to me that #nevertrump is for real. They will do whatever it takes first to try to deny him the nomination, then to deny him the presidency if that fails.
No they won’t. If he wins the nomination they will support him in the election. What other choice do they have – to officially concede that the Democratic candidate is better and ask Republicans to vote for the Democrat? To tell their base to stay home, and conceded the election by default? Nope, won’t happen.
No, they will mount a third party effort a la John Anderson in 1980 but with more teeth behind it. They will insist that this is the “real” GOP. It won’t be with an eye to actually winning, of course, but to giving mainstream Republicans someone to vote for rather than Hillary, and then wiping the slate and starting over in 2020.
I can only speak for myself, but this particular republican (who has voted for every republican nominee in the general election since 1996) will definitely NOT be voting for Trump in November. I might vote for Hillary as the lesser of two evils, or for a 3rd party candidate, but it will not be for Donald. I know of at least one other self-identified Republican who has said that he would vote for ANY other candidate in the race (including Bernie!) rather than Trump. Believe me, there are a LOT of republicans out there who will absolutely refuse to vote for Trump. Many of them may just stay home rather than voting for Hillary, but they will not vote for Donald.
I certainly won’t dispute many individuals will do this, but sitting it out or endorsing the Democrat won’t be something the Republican Party endorses.
Yup, I can’t see it, either…particularly not the “stay home” idea, as it would cede not only the presidential race to the Democrats, but also many other contested races.
IMO there is zero chance of this. If Trump wins the nomination, he IS by definition the Republican candidate. The Party as an institution won’t just cast off the results and declare that everybody at the convention who voted for Trump are now some kind of renegades and are no longer Republicans.
I’m not saying the actual official GOP will do it “on the record”. They are doing it by having people like Romney, McCain, etc., as their proxies. If Drumpf earns the majority of delegates, the official party machinery will give him whatever their rules say they have to, and not an iota more. They will give him their official “support” in the most unenthusiastic, lifeless manner possible.
Oh, and that’s right: the Speaker of the House and the Senate Majority Leader have also denounced him. What more proof do you need?
They will endorse him after the convention.
But, what would be the point? If they don’t do what you’re describing, the worst thing that can happen from the Pub Establishment’s POV is that Trump loses, and the second-worst thing is that he wins. But if they do take the unprecedented step of mounting a third-party effort, the Republican brand-name is muddled, which is much worse; they’d run the risk of causing a fracture that can’t be healed and watching both “Republican” parties running their own candidates in future elections – thereby splitting opposition to the Dems, and neither party ever winning anything outside solid-red counties.
I believe they first of all don’t see any good options if they can’t stop him from being nominated. But I think they see the party’s brand name being “muddled” as being worse than having it be taken over by Drumpf. I further don’t think (and I agree with them) that Drumpf is going to mount any kind of ongoing third party, any more than Teddy Roosevelt’s Bull Moose Party had any lasting legs.
But I don’t see how you can watch the biggest names in the party attack Drumpf in no uncertain terms, and think they are going to then take it back and make nice in a couple months. It’s one thing if your opponents in the primary do this: even though it has been awkward with Christie, people do understand the idea that you’re running against each other, and then come together later. But for the last two GOP nominees, and the Speaker of the House, along with at least one sitting senator, to denounce him like this when they did not run against him in the primaries…that’s unprecedented and it’s not something you can just take back in the summer. They would look ridiculous to do that. You may think it was foolish of them to put themselves in that corner, but they did it.
Of course they will. It’s a no brainer. They are smart enough to know that either Trump or Hilary will win, and they would rather have Trump than Hilary, especially since throwing the election to her will mean an open civil war within their party.
Ryan denounced Trump? When did that happen? [This is the only mention of the two that I’ve seen today:
](http://thehill.com/homenews/house/271646-ryan-on-trumps-threat-i-just-laughed-out-loud)That doesn’t sound like much of a denunciation to me.
Even if Trump loses in Nov he’ll have given a big leg up to the idea that there’s a big rejectionist voter base out there free for the taking.
You’re probably right that Trump isn’t the guy who runs that ball forward in 2018 & 2020 & beyond. But *somebody *will see the Rs have fumbled the ball; they’ll pick it up & start running it downfield.
[aside]
IMO only, but misstating the guy’s name does nothing to enhance your argument’s credibility.
You may have that order reversed.
I’m not sure what the establishment will do. I do think that I know:
The establishment is incompetent. They started seriously gearing up against Trump about 4 days before Super Tuesday. No exaggeration. Jeb’s Super-Pac spent about the same attacking Trump as Kasich. Trump has yet to receive a Super-Pac ad-bomb.
The players in the establishment will proceed as follows:
a. Trump is going to lose anyway this November (unless/until the economy goes south).
b. How will my support or lack of it affect my career?
Usually mid and high level operatives get brownie points for supporting a losing candidate. Not clear that will happen this year.
Ryan denounced him over the KKK thing and the anti-Muslim thing, according to this article I saw when googling “ryan denounce trump.”
And if you read the articles that say that, it’s clearly a fiction. Here’s some quotes from the article you linked (bolding mine):
He never denounces Trump; he denounces the things that Trump said. There’s a huge difference there, and as your link notes, it isn’t an accident:
ETA: Also, as I noted above, just today Ryan said he could get along with Trump should Trump win the election.
Don’t need it, may as well rock 'n roll. Anybody not convinced by the bleeding obvious isn’t going to be persuaded by civility.
(You do know, right, that its a John Oliver bit that’s bled into the memeshphere?)