I said it poorly. No mutation, so far. But, are the chances upped even a fraction for it to mutate (either so that meat is unsafe, or going back into humans more virulent) now that it has gone back into pigs? 
Lucida Console is a monospace font. All of the characters are the same width. Comparing two strings of letters works best in one window rather than two. For example:
A/PR/8/34 NP (nucleocapsid) /
MASQGTKRSYEQMETDGERQNATEIRASVGKMIGGIGRFYIQMCTELKLSDYEGRLIQNSLT
MASQGTKRSYEQMETGGERQNATEIRASVGRMIGGIGRFYIQMCTELKLSDYDGRLIQNSIT
California 2009 nucleocapsid /\
Each letter stands for an amino acid. The ones underlined are the variants as compared to a known strain with a known virulence.
Vlad/Igor
Well, I read the comment by Evans to imply that they were watching out, but didn’t seem too concerned about mutation from this event.
They also quarantined all the pigs on the farm. And the sickened pigs ‘are recovering’. I don’t know why, but I find the use of such language with regard to pigs kinda amusing. As compared to say, bird flu, though, it seems that this swine flu version is mild in the pigs, too. It seems to be a pretty routine thing with flu that it is passed animal-human and also human-animal.
Oh they also had the official saying he wouldn’t hesistate to eat the meat of these pigs, for what that’s worth.
And he’s Jewish!
(betraying my geekitude) Ain’t it fun? Like those “compare these pictures” games in HighLights.
No, please, help me out here. My spouse mentioned people referring to a conspiracy, and I just can’t find one.
Warning the population about a possibly particularly virulent flu, keeping them informed, recommending greater caution than is warranted (demonstrably) … I just can’t find a conspiracy there.
I was really hoping you had a take on this that made sense.
I guess Conspiracy Theories have been so degraded that no theory is required. Damn.
I blame the schools.
Oh you’ll hear them soon enough.
Let’s go with the standard: there really isn’t any flu risk - it is made up, exaggerated, or perhaps even an engineered bug, with Pharma and the WHO in cahoots with the intent of creating a market for potentially 600 million doses of a new vaccine in America alone come Fall, let alone the number in the world. And the makers of Tamilflu and Relenza are in for their take too. Maybe doctors also to get the extra visits from people panicking.
Maybe there is nothing in the shots even. Or it gives you the flu. (“I always get the flu right after I get one of those shots!”) Oh and then you’ll get the theory that there is something … experimental and/or neferious in the vaccines. This one will get much traction in Africa (it sterilizes you), maybe even promoted by some governmental leaders there, and also in some Hollywood types. Oprah will give them a few shows of exposure in order to fairly present “both sides of the controversy” - CDC representatives will declare that there is no significant evidence that the vaccines cause any of the hundred and three diseases that they are accused of causing but of course further studies to further assure that there is no significant risk are ongoing.
Give them time. They’ll come up with the conspiracy after - first comes the execution, then the trial - don’t forget.
Ah, I see why I am out of the Conspiracy Loop here; I know too much.
I will retire, unsatisfied, until a nice Education or Financial Conspiracy crops up.
Honestly, I think this is just giving Conspiracy Theories a bad name.
I can invent one if it will make you feel better… ahem, let’s see! Assume for a moment that the Bush Administration was actually a nefarious fascist regime, and that though some trick of electoral politics Obama is actually committed to advancing the exact same fascist agenda. Part of this agenda is the end of personal freedom in America- individuals are to be viewed by government as ‘the raw material of the state’ from now on.
So obviously, this swine flu will be destructive of this ‘raw material of the state’, i.e. you and I. Therefore, the efforts of the authorities to keep us all safe from the 21st century plague are all just a part of their selfish designs for this ‘raw material’- protecting their assets for use in future perfidy. :eek: Those bastards!
Ok, that’s totally nuts, but you have to admit that the necessary preparations against a 1% chance of a global catastrophe (and a 99% chance of not much at all) creates a bit of a paranoid atmosphere, no? Kind of a… necessary paranoia? And how suspicious is that??? :rolleyes:
Great little system, but I think there is a way to make it even easier for you and other armchair molecular sleuths. Word has a compare function. Simply create two documents, one for each of the sequences (or sets of sequences) you want to compare. Then go to Tools –> Track Changes –> Compare Documents and select the two docs you want to compare. The differences between the two will be tracked as changes (typically red underlines).
You can do this for thousands of lines with 100% accuracy and virtually instantaneously, so you don’t have to rely on your eyesight or ability to spot differences visually character by character.
Guys, I’m going to blow your mind. Ultracompare - UltraEdit
Hell, DOS had it long, long ago, and, IIRC, Peter Norton had it before that, but where’s the sport in THAT?
Thanks. I have to admit, it doesn’t quite grab me, but I appreciate the effort.
As for the precautions, well, I am learning a bit about Risk Assessment. First one evaluates the Severity of the adverse effect. A pandemic is bad; a pandemic of a virus with high morbidity +/or mortality is very (very) bad.
Hey - I’m back. Sorry it took so long.
No Pandemic! Widespread areas of new flu virus, transmitted person to peron in North America and mainly associated with travel to North America otherwise.
Keep washing your hands. I’ll tell you why at the bottom of this post.
I skimmed the 3 pages since I posted - so I’ll go over what I remember:
Someone wanted my advice about going to Mexico - I don’t know why you wanted to go, and I’m not qualified to give medical advice. I think that if it was me and I HAD to be there, I’d get myself extremely educated about the early signs of flu, and bring my own Tamiflu (as well as all the proper preventive stuff, it goes without saying.
So, why would i be going, would I still be able to do what I needed/wanted to do given the partially geared state mexico is in now, and free advice is worth what you pay for it. But Bring a seriously buffed up travellers first aid kit if you go. And have a drink for me if you do!
So: Why do the numbers keep going up and down in Mexico?
Remember we talked about having a case definition? When this all started, anyone with a flu-like illness was included in the definition of “Having Swine Flu”. And, it was all limited to Mexico. And, very importantly, the only people who were counted were in the hospital.
Then, as it got in to the news, we started hearing about ‘H1N1’. In the US, the case definition has always been 'a person with flu-like symptoms who tests positive for the H1N1 virus. Then, we began testing the cases in Mexico to see which one had H1N1.
At this point it becomes very important for the case definition in the US and the case definition in Mexico (and Canada, and everywhere else) to MATCH. Because then and only then can we compare cases in one place to case in another.
So we use the case definition of cases in the US. Why? Not because it’s the one in the US, but it’s the one that involves a lab-verified presence of the H1N1 virus. And I’m calling it the US definition because that’s how my story works and the lab was at CDC, in the US. Neener.
The biggest impact of this re-definition of the Mexican case definition is that every Mexican case has to be re-evaluated for the presence or absence of the H1N1 virus. A true count for Mexico will never be known, for 2 reasons. First, some deaths have already occurred along with burials, and it is too late to get a testable specimen. Second, cases that were not hospitalized will not have been tested.
So that’s why the numbers in Mexico have changed so much.
Did we dodge a bullet? Well, at this precise moment, it does look like we have a scary thing that didn’t bite as bad as it’s bark after all. Right now. Oh. So why were we supposed to be afraid of it?
People have been whipping around “Avian Flu Pandemic” (which didn’t happen) and “SARS Pandemic” (which most people forgot about immediately) and PANDEMIC FLU OF 1918!!! which was a very long time ago.
But there has been blessed little explanation of why H1N1 might be worrisome. So here goes: we go along and get the flu every year, and the components of the flu change a bit every year, which is why you need a new shot every year. But the genetic components are pretty well related, and they’ve all been drifting around like this for many years. So most of the population has been exposed to them at some point, probably. (This is a population view, not an individual view, right here). We could call those A 1 through 8 and B 3 though 8, if we wanted to be funny.
But H1N1 is new to us, new to the population. There is no one who has any resistance to it at all. So we are out on a limb one-legged and blindfolded. That’s why we’re afraid. We’re not just afraid, we’re sh-t scared.
Right now we’re lucky and H1N1 doesn’t seem to be very lethal. The cool epidemiology term for that is: kill rate. Currently H1N1 appears to have a low kill rate. (kill rate calculated as deaths divided by infections)
As an aside, as far as I now HIV still has a near 100% kill rate. Just slower now - in the developed world where we get the drugs. It’s still pretty fast in places where they don’t get the drugs.
Back to the current virus. There is worry that H1N1 may continue to evolve and become more lethal. The 1918 Pandemic was preceded by a milder spring flu. Does that mean that H1N1 will be a big bad flu in the fall? No. But it could return, and it could be more lethal (and it could be less lethal) and that’s why starting to make a vaccine is a good idea. And we Have to start now because making flu vaccines takes about 6 months.
About washing your hands: get used to it, it’s a healthy habit. 
Some updates.
Analysis of the cases in Mexico show that the deaths came in two main groups. The usual sort of deaths that occur with seasonal flu: individuals with other risk factors, either chronic medical conditions or at risk ages. And a group of young healthies who went had a viral pneumonia trigger acute respiratory failure more similar to the Spanish flu scenario. The two American deaths were both in at-risk individuals.
Meanwhile there has been no reports of sustained community wide transmission outside of Mexico. But cases have now been reported in the Southern hemisphere - significant because they are just going into Winter there.
The origins and make-up of the virus are becoming better described. (Sorry, but I think behind a wall.)
What does that diverse genetic heritage, and the fact that it’s been able to move back into pigs from humans foretell for its capacity to pick up a naughty bit as (if?) it moves around the world in higher numbers?
Check back in six months or so for the answer!
Like Reagan said, trust that this is not an epidemic, but verify.
Looks like Thailand has a ase of swine flu now, although they’re awaiting confirmation from US authorities. All they’ll say now is it’s a person who had returned here from an affected country. The new school year starts in just a couple of weeks or so, and they’re worried about students returning from spending their school break abroad.
Well, that suspected case turned out to be regular flu, again. But they’re still worried about the returning students.
As the public’s attention has now moved on to other things I will just post this update to our brewing storm which may or may not turn into a hurricane that makes landfall.
It is quietly spreading as predicted.
And elsewheres
And Thailand finally got its first two confirmed cases a few days ago. Two Thais who had returned from Mexico.