As of Saturday, April 25th, we have reports of sickness in Texas, Calif., NY, and Kansas, and well as multiple deaths in Mexico City.
The CDC is convening and emergency meeting and is throwing around words like “very worried” “uncontainable” and “pandemic”
How worried should we be?
Omg. OMG! AHHHHHHHHHHHH
Well, to give a slightly more meaningful post than OMG! (;)) I would have to say…it depends and they don’t have enough information yet. I think most of those who died in Mexico (it was like 20 last time I checked) died of complications (like pneumonia). I don’t believe there have been any deaths due to this in the US as yet, though I think there have been something like 8 reported cases.
My take on this is that the CDC is concerned (they are ALWAYS concerned about new strains of flu, and this one seems unusual because none of the people who have gotten it were in contact with pigs…which I guess is the normal way it’s transmitted), but that it’s hard to tell at this point how serious it may be. The flu is a lot more deadly than most people think…every year a hell of a lot of people die from it world wide, and even in the US and Europe a surprising number of folks die, despite good medical care.
-XT
People take it too lightly because we haven’t had a majorly deadly variety for a long time. The 1918 influenza epidemic killed quadruple the people that the concurrently-running World War I did.
They take it to lightly because they think they know the risks. People are horrible about risk assessment…things they do casually are usually hugely more risky than the things they actually worry about, which are generally pretty improbable. Even without a major pandemic for the flu (and you are right…the one in 1918 was huge, way worse than the Black Death plague), the flu is a major killer every year, especially in the 3rd world.
-XT
Ahhh! Our failsafes have failed (Insert horrified Jewish smiley here)
On a serious note, I’m not sure. I’ve never read anything indicating that anybody was worried about the pandemic of 1917 or saw it coming. This, of course, makes me worried that nobody will see the next one coming either.
Mexican stats are unreliable ,but the deaths are at 68 and thousands are sick. It is in at 5 states in the US. We have to be careful but who thought an epidemic would come from somewhere beside China?
Hey, give me some credit. I’ve been watching India* and all of Latin America too.
Some current expert assessments:
But of course …
Nobody expects the Spanish Influenza!
Seriously we should be constantly worried about a pandemic capable influenza and constantly upgrading out capacity to produce vaccines to novel antigens in short order (something we cannot currently do). This one being the big one? Odds are not. But the big one coming from somewhere sometime who knows when? This year, next, or in a decade? When, who knows, but will it come. Yeah, of that you can be confident of.
BTW, the Spanish Influenza did begin here in the US of A. We have a tradition to uphold!
The Russian Flu of 1580 came from (oddly, given the usual misnamings of diseases) Russia, and the Spanish Flu of 1918 was first noted in Kansas. But yeah, China seems to be the mother of flus.
One of the reports I read suggested that this strain responds to drugs (ie it isn’t drug-resistant) and that work is already being done to create a vaccine (which they presented as pretty easy for doctor-types to accomplish).
So, looks like it is not time to panic. If you get it it looks like you can be treated. And the mortality rate seems much lower than with the Spanish Influenza.
If things start looking like Stephen King’s ‘The Stand’, forget I said this.
India, hell! We have 10 or 15 cases every year in the US!
They not only shut down the schools in Mexico, they are not allowing spectators at the soccer match. This is serious.
The virus has been tied to bird, human, and porcine strains. It’s probably going to be very hard on anyone who contracts it.
This might not be good.
Well I have been having dreams about an annoying, preachy, African American, geriatric who dispenses folk wisdom and won’t shut up.
You’ve been dreaming about Bill Cosby?
Morgan Freeman?
d&r
Pffft. We’ve got bird flu over here. Bring on the pigs! We’ll take 'em on.
Is it the CDC or the media that’s throwing those words around?
Speaking as a person who is versed in the spread of various flus, but is not remotely medical, I assume the CDC is not “throwing those words around,” but is intensely interested.
ETA: That stuff can get really hairy, really quick. It would be irresponsible to not be extremely concerned.
If you’re as worried as Fox News, you should be wrapping yourself in duct tape and jumping out of your window.