How would an Israeli attack on Iran impact the Presidential election?

[John_Mace]

@DSeid

And of course the logic is sound: if Israel is ever going to do it, before the election is the time. If they do not do it by then then Iran knows that they probably never will.

Can you show your work here? I see your conclusion, but have no idea how you got there.

[Farmer_Jane]

@Stink Fish Pot

Sorry for beating perhaps a dead horse, but I thought there was concern by Israel and I guess American Jews about Obama and his commitment to Israel.

Or am I misremembering? I thought there was concern because of Obama’s possible Muslim roots that he would have sympathy toward Islamic POV’s, such as Palestinian rights.

Or was this just BS?

Thanks

Already? Really?

[Leaper]

Good question!

[Smapti]

This reminds me of when Israel was preparing for an imminent strike on Iran just before the 2004 election.

[gamerunknown]

Hmm, well, if a military strike on Iran is all that’s needed to depose Obama, then we’d better hope the Israelis will be cooperative!

[adaher]

@Smapti

This reminds me of when Israel was preparing for an imminent strike on Iran just before the 2004 election.

It’s not Israel’s fault that Iran never gets close enough to a nuke for them to actually pull the trigger. Might not happen this time either. The sabotage campaign waged by the administration has worked pretty well.

[DSeid]

@Stink Fish Pot

Sorry for beating perhaps a dead horse, but I thought there was concern by Israel and I guess American Jews about Obama and his commitment to Israel.

Or am I misremembering?..

Some think that friendship is best measured by support no matter what (“You go, buddy!”); some prefer friends who try to take away the keys when you are trying to drive drunk. Obama made noises that he was going to be the latter sort of friend and some more Right wing style supporters and many in Israeli leadership still think he might yet and don’t want that kind of friend. Some, including many in Israeli leadership I believe, think that Obama will feel more free to be that sort of friend without election concerns hanging over his head.

@John_Mace

Can you show your work here? I see your conclusion, but have no idea how you got there.

You have on the one side the probable progress of the Iranian program and the very likely hardening and further diversification of the targets. It may already be impossible to do more than delay the program briefly even with a strike that is considered a “success” and it won’t be getting any easier. Knowing that you have a powerful friend behind you who will back you up is part of being able to succeed.

On the other hand the level of unrestrained support from an Obama administration is likely greater before than after the election.

Max-min equation. Iran knows Israel knows that a successful (to the degree that success is at all possible) strike becomes much more improbable after the election and that if statements leaked are disinformational bluster now then all future ones can be assumed to be so as well.

IMHO.

[aldiboronti]

@Oakminster

Obama’s base doesn’t care about Israel. They’re more interested in his domestic policy.

I suppose that’s true now that many Jewish-Americans are no longer part of that base because of his lukewarm attitude towards Israel.

[Zakalwe]

I’ve found it very amusing that “recognizes that the US has interests outside of the Israel and won’t let Israel set foreign policy for the US” is now translated as “lukewarm” support.

Many of the same people who claim that Obama wants to turn the US over to the UN and this is a bad thing, want to turn it over to Israel and this is supposed to be a good thing.