How has Blu-ray been selling? I myself do not plan to buy any blu-ray equipment–the benefits seem slender and the discs are expensive–but I wonder if the world in general shares that mindset.
Is there any info available on how well Blu-ray sales are tracking Sony’s expectations?
As a WAG I’d assume that it’s far behind Sony’s expectations. This has less to do with the technology or pricing and more to do with the ramifications of the drawn out battle with HD-DVD.
To speculate, I’d imagine the future looks bright regardless. Prices will steadily decline, and with the PS3 and many Sony Laptops including the technology for far less than market price more and more players will find their way into the market. While it’s true that much of benefits of Blu-Ray are hype it won’t matter. People have been pretty quick to start buying up 1080p HDTVs even though that technology is unnecessary for 90% of the viewing public, so much so that non-1080p HDTVs are becoming impossible to find in sizes greater than 40". Since the only technologies out there right now that can use 1080p are Blu-Ray and a small percentage of video games the fate of Blu-Ray is tied to that of 1080p. So long as 1080p keeps taking off, Blu-Ray will follow simply because that’s the only technology that will allow people to use their new HD sets properly.
36 million discs sold last year and a projected 100 million this year.Blu-ray is doing fine.
Considering its the only HD format release by major movie studios there’s really no competition for high quality HD picture. Netflix’s streaming is SD and below DVD quality. “On Demand” quality isnt much better.
That said I have a player in my htpc and almost never use it. I think people are getting comfortable with the idea of watching lower-quality non-disc sources. The idea of renting is going out of style and buying comes at a pretty high price, imho. Toss in all the pirating that going on and I doubt we’ll ever see anything like the DVD’s marketshare again. The market is too fragmented. Still, its going to make a lot of money just not a ridiculous amount of money.
Im more looking forward to burning BD for data purposes. Even that isnt that tempting considering how cheap HD storage is nowadays.
Yeah, I think that’s pretty much the case. I suppose it depends what Sony’s costs were in the format war and development outlays. It could turn out that HD-DVD actually “won” the war by losing if Sony continues to hemorrhage cash in trying to make Blu-Ray the new DVD. However, if Sony is closer to being in the black right now and are content to accept a market niche type product they will probably do handsomely.
Personally I’ll probably upgrade to a 1080p Plasma when my current one dies (or I get a house and need a second one) and then I’ll get a Blu-Ray player. After that happens I’ll probably buy the Blu-Ray versions of my very favorite action/sFX movies, stuff like LotR, Star Wars, select comic book movies and war movies. Stuff I’ll want to have on hand and watch in optimal quality every time.
What I won’t do is buy multiple Blu-Ray players and rent Blu-Ray movies at Blockbuster. I won’t impulse buy Blu-Rays at Best Buy for movies I’ve never seen before. I won’t lay out for Blu-Ray versions of movies I already own. If Sony is prepared to live with that type of marketplace I think they’ll be fine. If they need it to become pervasive and replace DVD completely they are screwed. Streaming On Demand content will be in place and cheaper before that will ever happen.