Right, but you know how the Ames straw poll works, right? It’s a fundraiser for the Iowa Republican party. People who want to participate (until this year, you didn’t even have to live in Iowa) pay a fee and then vote for the candidate of their choice. That means it’s really easy for the numbers to be manipulated by the campaigns. The campaign gets a bunch of people together, puts them on a bus, pays the entry fee for them, and, bang, all sorts of votes. So I wonder how many of the votes were campaign plants and how many were independent Republican voters.
I know WV politics. Hillary would be a disaster for Dems there. She would beat Guiliani or Romney there in a close race. McCain would win big. Any other GOP candidate would beat her in the low 50s for the third straight GOP win in a state with a 66% Dem registration advantage.
I know WV politics so well, that I’ll bet anyone here a hundred bucks that if you give me the names of two candidates, next April, I’ll pick their vote percentages within + or - two points in the general election…
Tommy Thompson is getting out now? Who knew he was ever in?
Come on now, people, be honest with your answers.
Huckabee is surprisingly appealing for a hard right candidate…however, he doesn’t have the national backing to get much of anywhere.
The Fred Thompson fascination will fade; he’s full of shit and everyone knows it. I think they’re going to be left with Giuliani, Romney and maybe McCain.
Of those, I don’t know who will win; they all have terminal baggage (I can’t believe Giuliani hasn’t been exposed yet). However, I thought the same thing about Bill Clinton years ago*; his sheer political talent and some good luck overcame that. I don’t see any of those guys doing what he did, however.
- I’m an Arkansas native; throughout the whole '92 campaign, I just knew all that womanizing would come to light and he’d be toast…I’m still surprised he got elected in the first place. If Bush the Elder had sucked an iota or two less, things would’ve been different, IMHO.
I think Newt has a very serious shot.
Newt has called the war on terror “phony” and said other things that would at the very least make him seem sort of troubling to most Republicans. He’s not very on message, at least in terms of a primary. And of course, his now exposed adultery in the very midst of the Clinton impeachment is not exactly the white horse the religious right is looking for.
Not quite. He called Bush’s prosecution of the war on terror “phony,” not the war itself.
At any rate, I see Captain Amazing already made the point I was going to. A conservative blogger or two I’ve seen has already declared their unwillingness to take this poll seriously. But if it makes Romney look more viable and visible than he had before (or replace “Romney” with any other top finishers), it might have an impact neverthless…
Perhaps more significant than the winner of this straw poll is the diminished turnout from the last one in 1999:
Huckabee has a funny name. A genuinely funny name. We haven’t elected a president with a funny name, at least since Grover Cleveland, and back the “Grover” wasn’t all that funny. The man could be an entire forest of presidential timber and he’d still be screwed. Barack Obama’s name is also funny, funny-weird, but Huckabee is funny-funny. A president can’t have a name that breaks up anchormen. And, since that movie both sucked and tanked, he’s dead meat.
Hillary, named, as she wasn’t, after Sir Edmund Hillary, a god among men, THAT is a good name. Had I a son he’d’ve been named after him, except Hillary is a girl name now so he’d’ve been named a good, solid, All- American name: Tenzing Hillary zone. Has a certain ring, no?
Sounds vaguely obscene. In a clinical kind of way.
Hmmm…Norkay Clinton zone isn’t any better in that vein, is it?
No, it isn’t. So be glad I ended up with daughters, even if one is named after a squirrel.
However they are twins so I pushed for Hillary and Mallory, but since I named our first I lost.
You named your daughter Sciurida? And you thought Tenzing Hillary zone was bad?
No, our oldest (named after greatgrandmother and foth grandmothers) had named the local female squirrels Lisa. Since Wife was going for a variation on Elizabeth that worked.
The male squirrels were all named Tickle. Tickle Hillary zone would’ve been REAL bad.
No, it didn’t.
Apparently not. I thought for sure he’d wait at least until Tuesday to get some breathing room.
As for the others…as I said I don’t think Tancredo will drop out as he’s on a crusade. Paul has said he’s in until the money runs out and I’ve got no way of saying when that will occur. Brownback finished just well enough to allow him to stay in.
I just found out who John Cox was: he apparently was running on a plan to zoom down from space to save America/the planet from illegal immigrants/terrorists with a hefty round of Led Zepplin covers.
Worth watching just to stand in awe at the zaniness.