This move in the prediction track back to the east is unnerving for me. Right now, I’m one of the pins in the 7-10 split and I don’t know how good the bowler is.
We are still recovering from Sally. Got flooded out by the surge.
TWC is worse than useless. They could give accurate tide and timing for surge prediction as landfall approaches. Instead they never get above boiler plate with superficial graphics.
So, if it gets close we will evacuate. The car is gassed and emergency rations are packed - 2 weeks of cat food and disposable cat trays; Dinty More beef stew with adulterants to make it edible; oxygen tanks for spouse; Favorite tea bags and mugs; most important $1000 in cash with a couple of hundred in small bills. When power goes out cash is king.
Shutters would be good if they would fit more than half the windows on the house. My daughter has them on some of her windows. Only storm damage she’s had so far was when a shutter came loose and beat up the wall.
We don’t put plywood on the house…don’t have storm shutters either, for that matter. I’m wishing we did, right about now, but we’re about 60 miles inland. We’re adding some plywood to the barn stalls where the animals will have to ride it out.
I’m thinking of putting up a sign:
<<< State capitol … Mar-a-Lago >>>
My son is near Gainesville. He secures the outside stuff (furniture, grill, etc) and hopes for the best. I told him to keep my granddaughter safe and secure so that I might meet her some day.
by Jeff Masters and Bob Henson, formerly at Weather Underground.
There is a vast difference between a hurricane when you live at most 5 miles from the ocean as the folks who endured the worst of Andrew did versus living 100+ miles from the coast as everyone in Orlando does. To be sure, greater Orlando can suffer rain-driven flooding and wind-driven power outages. But that’s a very different thing from the ocean and waves being driven ashore 10 feet above the land level and accompanied by truly insane winds. Plus even more rain and far more electrical supply damage. And lots more debris and general wreckage.
As comedian Ron White said about hurricanes and Florida: “It’s not that the wind blows, it’s what the wind blows.”
I know you posted this yesterday, and others have replied, but I figured I’d check in from Broward today. We’ve started to get some rain bands from Ian. Periods of heavy rain. The next two days will likely be more of the same, with increasing frequency and some tropical storm level wind gusts. The message I’ve been giving my friends and co-workers is this is very much a “just don’t do anything stupid” storm. Don’t go for a jog or a drive during the downpours. Be flexible on when you run that errand. Expect some localized flooding and maybe a few power outages. But other than that, we’ll move on just fine from Ian.
The Tampa area is likely to be much worse off. 
I live on the Broward / Palm Beach County border. Agree this will be a blustery very rainy day on Wed and little more. Same as Michael & Dorian turned out to be for us.
That’s putting it mildly. I live in Tallahassee, so right now, we’re looking relatively okay. We’ll be on the west side and well after landfall. Some wind, a lot of rain, and not much else. I’m a alternate to the third-string for the state EOC, but don’t expect to get called down there.
Tampa Bay is a funnel with the mouth pointed south-west. The top of the bay is about 3 feet above the tide line on a good day. If this thing pushes a 12 or 14 foot storm surge up the bay (well within current predictions), the water will go through downtown Tampa and up for miles. Houses, streets, and businesses flooded. The count of people impacted will likely be in 6 figures. Many of those people will be disadvantaged (if you’re rich, you live in a high-rise or out in the suburbs - although not all those will be safe either). This has the makings of a major catastrophe for those folks and mandatory evacuations have been declared in Hillsborough (Tampa) county and, I believe, parts of Pinellas (St. Petersburg). Wind strength at landfall is not directly correlated with storm surge strength which is much more dependent on the size of the wind field and how much time and open water it has to push. This could be hella bad for my brothers and sisters (not literal family, just shared risk) down there.
As for storm prep here: I went to the liquor store today, checked the flashlights and batteries situation, and charged the block rocker. No need for bottled water, the city water will run just fine even if we lose power. Added some big bottles of water to the garage freezer to help create a heat sink until we can get the generator up and running. Worst case, I grill a bunch of food before it spoils (lump charcoal grill) and just put the fridge on the gen, but I expect we’ll be less than 12 hours without power.
Unless the bastard changes course, but, honestly, the prep wouldn’t change that much. If it looked like another Michael, the fam would be leaving tomorrow and I’d find a hotel with a generator to hunker down.
We leased a condo on Longboat Key, just outside Sarasota, for this winter. It’s ground floor, right on the coast, and I’m guessing the elevation is about 5’. I’m wondering if it will be there come January.
I got activated by the County but won’t know what my duties are until 5 am. Yay. The east edge of the cone is very near me so even if the storm goes right of the middle of the track, I’m still in the storm.
Can I ask which county?
Evac orders (both mandatory and voluntary) are up for Charlotte (M-Zone A), Collier (V), Hernando (V), Hillsborough (M-Zone A, V-Zone B), Levy (M-Select areas/residence types), Manatee (M-Zone A, V-Zone B), Pasco (M-Zone A, select areas/residence types, V-Zone B), Pinellas (M-Zones A, B, C), Sarasota (M-Zone A, Select areas/residence types).
The select residence types are usually mobile homes, RV parks, coastal and/or low-lying areas.
For information and updates, see here: Evacuation Orders | Florida Disaster
I hope Florida just gets a little wet and wind tossed and comes through unscathed, and that Ian keeps enough oomph to dump some badly needed rain on us in central SC.
The timing certainly sucks for our family. My in-laws live in Ocala and we were supposed to head down there this weekend to start moving them out. They were expecting an offer on their house any day and I was to drive them back to Maryland on next Friday, with my husband following a few days later with a truck full of their furniture.
So our worries:
- Will the house come thru unscathed so the sale proceeds?
- Will they still have power?
- Will we be able to get the truck and car trailer we reserved?
- Will the roads from Ocala to I-95 be OK?
- Will I-95 be OK?
We were so happy when they finally agreed to move - if only they’d done so months/years ago… Watching the track and trying to plan is just a tad stressful right now. I know other people are facing much worse and I feel for them, but this is what’s directly affecting us, so it’s kinda at the forefront in my mind. Stupid hurricane…
- Ian is currently predicted to be a TS by the time it hits Ocala (2AM Friday), so a well-built house should come through okay although if it has lots of trees around it, there’s always fallen trees. A lot depends on when it was built though. Anything built post-Andrew is generally going to be better.
- Probably not - at least for a period. How quickly it comes back will depend on the damage and where their feeder lines are. Lineman (linepersons?) are my heroes.
- You’re going to want to contact the rental place ASAP. Emergency services folks (Insurance mitigation teams, etc) have a habit of sucking up a LOT of rental trucks.
- If not immediately following the storm, VERY quickly thereafter. Road clearing is the first thing to happen.
- I-95 itself will be fine, but expect heavy traffic in both directions. Southbound will be emergency response and power trucks, north will be evacuees.
More importantly is that the storm is on a track that would have you driving through the remnants. It will be in Southern GA (around Savannah) at 2AM Sat and in the Carolinas (over by Greenville) at 2AM Sun.
One key thing: If you hook your house up to a generator, REMEMBER TO TRIP THE MAIN SWITCH AT THE TOP OF YOUR PANEL! If you don’t, you can feed power back up the line and potentially kill a lineman trying to restore power.
My mom’s condo had a tree in the back. It was knocked down by a hurricane a few years ago. Mom was happy because now she has a wonderful view of the lake. My mother’s ability to look on the bright side is amazing and a more than a bit disturbing.
Even better, get a proper transfer switch or interlock installed in your breaker panel so that it’s impossible to accidentally backfeed the line from your generator.
I’m in St Petersburg, and currently right in the crosshairs. I’m less than a mile from the bay, but oddly not in a flood / evac zone. With two cats and a tiny car, the prospect of fleeing is not an appealing one. I will either be fucked or I won’t. I’ve been through this many times over the last 30 years, though this is the closest one. It’s not so much complacency as , I don’t know, resignation?
Today’s track looks better for my household, worse for my mom and grandma, who live right on the St. John’s River. Fuck off, Ian!