Any Florida Dopers doing anything to prepare?
Based on the NWS reports, The Weather Channel might be sensationalizing this a bit. Major Threat seems a bit strong based on what we know so far.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdspd
In reading the “discussion” page on Ian from the National Hurricane Center, a few things to note:
- Ian is likely to be a major hurricane when it hits Cuba, probably on Tuesday.
- While it’s being predicted to lose some strength as it moves towards Florida’s Gulf Coast, it’s also predicted to slow down, which would lengthen the amount of time in which affected areas would be receiving high winds, storm surge, and rain.
- The models don’t have a good handle on the storm’s track as it moves north; this morning’s prediction cone has the center of the storm potentially hitting the U.S. coast anywhere from Mobile, Alabama to Fort Meyers, Florida.
Edit: Or, what @What_Exit shared. 
Quite possibly so, but then, that seems to be part of TWC’s brand positioning these days.
We’re near Gainesville, so very likely to get affected by this. At least we aren’t on the coast.
We’re fairly prepared, just doing some outdoor cleanup and waiting a little longer to see if we need to put up plywood.
I’m more worried about other family members at this point, and disappointed that I’ll probably miss the last January 6th hearing.
Professionally speaking …
The Weather Channel jumped the shark into pure sensationalism about 15 years ago. Shame because they started out with a well-earned reputation for delivering honest factual information with enough background & context for laypeople to understand those facts. Not anymore. Stick with NWS for just the facts ma’am.
As of a couple days ago Ian was looking like a real problem for Southern Florida. As it’s evolved, it’s becoming (probably) less of a big deal for wherever it hits. Less strong and aimed at a less populated area after a longer delay to get ready. Good news all around.
Somebody somewhere is going to get swatted; no hurricane comes ashore in the USA without wrecking something. But the difference in collective impact between 140mph in downtown Miami or 85mph in Nowheresville is tremendous.
Wife & I have started our prep countdown. Fill the cars with gas, buy an extra case of bottled water, etc. If it veers our way I will go back to my condo we just moved out of and close all the hurricane-proof shutters over the already hurricane-proof windows. That’s about it. It’s the people who live in precarious residences already with complicated problems like critters, kids, infirmity, etc., who really have it rough before, during, and after. At worst I’ll end up with a weeklong power outage and lose the food in the fridge. Irritating, but hardly a disaster.
Speaking as an amateur weather nerd: I endorse this message.
Down here in Fort Myers, things have been getting better. At first, the landfall was predicted right here in Lee County. But it has been sliding north to the point that we’re just outside the NOAA cone track. Doesn’t mean the storm can’t suddenly make a hard right, but still, the situation is less stressful than previously. I can’t evacuate. I have to work at a shelter if called by the County to do so. But got word a few hours ago that although still on alert, there are no immediate plans to activate our e-Roles (emergency situation plans for County workers).
facepalm Apologies for the typo!
I ain’t believing that until I see the Sharpie projections.
My father passed a while back. My niece was killed by a speeding driver in 2018. My sister, sister in law and my mom all still live in (IIRC) Broward county. I am very worried.
Broward’s on the Atlantic coast, and pretty far south. If that is indeed where they are, and the current projections for the storm’s intensity and path are anywhere close to accurate, they are likely to be affected by the storm’s outer rain bands (meaning there may be some flooding, and some tropical-storm force winds), but aren’t likely to be close to a direct hit. Here’s what the forecast currently looks like for Wednesday, in Fort Lauderdale (the biggest city in Broward County).
I mean this sincerely- A thousand thank you’s! My mom lives on the third floord. I am worried about the new house my sister and sister in law bought. But, IIRC it’s about a century old so it should be rather safe.
You are very welcome!
@LSLGuy lives in that general area, IIRC, so you may want to take a look at his post upthread about his thoughts on prep for this storm.
Thanks, I read the thread before posting. But, I have a terrible sense of direction and a poor grasp of geography. So, I wasn’t sure if what he said was applicable.
Also, I keep forgetting that my sister and her wife moved to (I think) Jacksonville recently.
Jacksonville is up in the far northeastern corner of the state, again on the Atlantic (not Gulf) coast, and very close to the Florida/Georgia border. Based on the forecast cone for the hurricane as it stands now (see picture below), there’s a pretty good chance that the storm will pass over (or near) them on Thursday or Friday, and they, too, may be looking at some heavy rain and gusty winds (gusts up to 80mph or so) on Wednesday and Thursday.
OTOH, if the storm’s path goes towards the western side of that forecast cone, Jacksonville would be less likely to see severe weather, as it’d be further away from the storm’s center.
I am going to sound dumb probably - but for the Florida dopers who own their own houses, and still nail up plywood - is there a reason you have not opted to install storm shutters? It would seem to me [and I lived in Tidewater VA where in the years I was there had 3 hurricane hits/close enough calls] that it is a once every couple of years [potentially now every year with the whole climate change going on] that it would be beneficial over the amount of time you end up living in the place.
My honary daughter lives in Kissimmee, a suburb of Orlando but she spends most of her time with her boyfriend who lives smack between Orlando and Tampa. That’s where she’ll be when this thing hits. She says they’re stocked with water and dehydrated meals and propane and are ready for whatever nature throws at them. Having heard stories from people who lived through Hurricane Andrew in the 90’s, I’m afraid she’s underestimating what a hurricane can do. I’ve never experienced one and neither has she.
I’m watching this thing closely and hoping for the best.
Thanks again!
It’s not a major threat. Anything called Ian, is, by definition, a Minor Threat.