One thing I’ve learned over the past 4 years, when Trump’s goons behave as if there won’t be consequences, they probably know something we don’t.
For almost 2 years we though Mueller was going to sink Trump, and it turns out that weasel Rosenstein was stacking the deck for Trump in order to (I guess) save his pension. We were assured Bill Barr wouldn’t be an amoral lackey for Trump, which turned out to be the opposite of true.
I think Barr is going to be fine, and I think Barr knows Barr is going to be fine.
It is to the Republican’s advantage, if they lose the election, to leave the country in as much disarray as possible, so that they can point to the Democrats who are in charge, and blame them for not fixing all the problems fast enough.
It’s true that Chump was astonished he became president. But a lot of people predicted he would quickly become bored with the job and resign, and that proved not to be. I think no matter how much he may hate the job, Chump desperately craves reelection so as not to be labeled a “loser.” And when he is defeated, he will strike out like the spoiled brat he is. This ain’t gonna be pretty.
This seems so far over the top that I truly question your rationality on this subject. I don’t mean to be over the top myself, but start a war with the third* most powerful country militarily, and one of the strongest that the world has ever seen? On what possible pretext would Trump use to do this? I’m assuming you don’t think he really needs one, but I’d be interested to hear it if you do. And how would this keep him in office anyway (or whatever it’s supposed to do for him)?
I don’t buy it about North Korea or Iran either, btw.
I think this is in line with how I see it playing it as well, @HMS_Irruncible.
The way I see it, what makes him dangerous to democracy right now is that he is living in survival mode. His first order of business is to find a way to stay in power any way he can, which means casting doubt on the process itself and hoping he can find a way to use power to usurp at least the standard political conventions if not the Constitutional norms outright.
I think the dynamics may also depend on how the senate and House races play out. Republicans who win will want the election results to be validated; those who lose may be more inclined to side with Trump and de-legitimize the vote. So we could see a split in support based on pure self-interest. But let’s say McConnell barely survives his contest but still manages to win, then McConnell would likely be inclined to ask Trump to quietly step aside, negotiate with Pence on a full measure of pardons, and move out so that the GOP can move on to the next election cycle. Others would then have to decide whether to follow a winning McConnell or a losing Trump. This is where we get deeper into the speculative weeds about whether Trump’s base could bring themselves to support a party led by Mitch McConnell (with out Trump) or not.
ETA: As insane as this might sound, maybe McConnell winning isn’t the end of the world for Democrats - if they can somehow eek out a 50-50 or 51-49 majority in the Senate.
Oh yeah. The courts are going to be testing the federal self-pardon power in 2021, guar-on-teed. I expect they will also be testing a novel fringe theory that presidents can pardon themselves from state charges, which will have been rubberstamped in lower courts by Trump’s judicial lackeys.
Yeah, I can’t see him starting a reckless war with NK. If Trump saw that the end was near in the US, he might be looking for a new country to call home and that option’s off the table if he starts a world war.
This is a point I hadn’t really considered and it gives me a little comfort. What gives me hesitation is that Republicans have a singular talent for avoiding schisms and keeping everyone in lockstep. This is easy to do for a party that has no ethics except transactionalism.
I also think Mitch already has his golden parachute worked out in every scenario. I worry that the consequences of opposing Trump, whatever the situation, might induce him to choose a comfortable retirement instead of contesting a close election. Different Congressmen will have different motivations though, so this does give me hope.
I’d lay good odds on this. Following the election he spends more and more time at the golf course on Trump Tower Dubai, “working hard on mideast peace independently because I didn’t lose the rigged election! Definitely not staying here due to extradition reasons, definitely making a triumphant return to America very soon when the patriots take to the street and overthrow the fake government! In the meantime I’ll be building a news media empire to crush those yahoos at the failing New York Times and Al-Jazeera!”
We all need to brace ourselves for the perpetual Trump Comeback Tour. It will never end. It’ll be like Guy Fawkes day 500 years from now, we’ll roll out a strawman Trump Effigy, he will declare he’s president forever, and somebody dressed like Nancy Pelosi will torch him. We’ll all get drunk and start fistfights based on which effigy we rooted for, without really knowing why. So I guess basically today’s status quo.
To an even more positive degree, this is how I see things playing out with other elected officials. So for instance McConnell, I see no evidence or any reason to believe that he, who has spent most of his life in politics, coming out to support a president who wants to stay in office after the voters have spoken. He know how this all works. And that goes for any other Senator or Representative I can think of. I would hope they are smart enough to know that there is nothing Trump can do to stay in office, and they won’t go down with a sinking ship. Not by a long shot.
I don’t worry about the Republicans who win, as much as the ones who lose, and who might feel like they have less to lose.
One reason why I don’t believe the US will go completely full-on authoritarian quite yet is the fact that, as you point out, the Republicans have used democracy to get where they are now. Even though they have authoritarian leanings, I would describe them as more hybrid authoritarian/democratic rather than full-on authoritarian. In the late 1700s and early 1800s, the US was arguably an aristocratic democracy, but it was still a democratic republic. They just had different notions about who should have access to the ballot box which is kind how I see republicans today.
That said, backsliding can have unintended consequences. It can go further down the slippery slope than people first imagine.
A big part of me expects Trump will use his bully pulpit and AG Barr to do everything in his power to invalidate the millions of absentee ballots under the auspice of voter fraud. I wish I could say I was more confident of this failing than it succeeding.
My larger concern is these militias and rural supporters with guns. I am pretty convinced they are preparing for action in the event Trump losses. And I mean coordinated planning, not one or two yahoos acting out. They spent 8 years during Obama being told, and telling themselves, that they’re losing their country. At the time they mostly just bitched impotently. Then Trump won and they felt they had finally won. But instead of things getting better for them, they’ve been fed a steady diet by their Dear Leader of grievances and “enemies” trying to take from them all that they hold dear. It feel like there has been radicalization there and they’re prepared for action.
But who are they going to take their mis-placed grievances out on? Neighbors that had Biden signs in their yards? I’m not totally disagreeing with you, but what do you see them doing?
Anything they do will just end up as a replay of the Easter Rising in Ireland or Waco. Either way the armed nutballs end up dead. Just a difference in innocent lives lost.
I am not familiar with the Easter Uprising, but I think an armed uprising over national election results would be far more consequential than Waco, even if it’s put down within a day or two.
My fantasy is that Trump ends up in a Prince’s palace in Saudi. Trump will be locked in a small apartment with one-way mirrors installed. People will be able to do a tour and watch the Prince’s new pet groom himself and shit on the golden toilet.
