Let’s just hope it does not play out like this
Hypothetical scenario: Trump loses and goes 'scorched earth' on his way out. What does it look like?
Rebellion in Ireland, beginning Easter Day in 1916. Did not end well for the insurrectionists.
I don’t. The armed tRump supporters are a bunch of pussies. The second there ceases to be tacit approval by the authorities, they will scamper back under their rocks like scared lizards.
I think a lot of people are thinking in terms of a clear winner, and therefore take comfort that no matter what Trump does, cooler heads will prevail and there will be enough Republicans who won’t support him to avoid chaos. But the real risk is a disputed election, and in that case all bets are off.
If one of the tipping states goes narrowly for Biden, Republicans crying fraud will not be a fringe group, especially in the likely scenario that Trump is leading on election night and Biden pulls ahead several days later when all mail-in votes are tabulated. Going the other way, if millions of urban voters can’t vote because of crowded or closed polls, Dems will contest it on those grounds. This could cycle into disaster.
Fivethirtyeight has a chilling analysis today of what could go wrong. I was much more dismissive of these fears before reading it.
Puh-leeeeze. These Bubba McBeerguts couldn’t organize a church bake sale. They’d be shooting each other in the driveway arguing about who’s in charge.
That’s precisely the concern we’re talking about: a scenario in which election night returns show Trump leading and then gradually being overtaken by Biden as mail-in returns are added to the totals. This occurs against the backdrop of weeks in which Trump’s campaign has repeatedly pushed lies and conspiracy theories suggesting that mail-in voting is fraudulent and will be used to somehow “alter” or “steal” the election from him and his supporters. So there’s that risk of a contested election.
I think we’re all in agreement that there’s a low chance of unrest of Biden crushes Trump and the results are obvious on election night. Whether Trump accepts that gracefully or not is another matter. Even in the face of an obvious defeat, it means something if Trump refuses to concede. It’s more than just a time-honored tradition; it’s a signal to the defeated faction that their opposition was legitimately elected and that there are rules we must all play by. Refusing to concede would be a serious break from that norm, even if the electoral college ultimately votes to declare Biden the winner.
It doesn’t have to be a coordinated effort to cause some serious headaches, though. Pockets of armed unrest would be a serious problem for law enforcement, and it could inspire other extremists who might be waiting for their cues to be more aggressive, whatever form that takes.
A war. A big one. Starting around new year is my guess.
Iran most likely. But wouldn’t rule out one with China (a nuclear armed power 
).
If it looks like he is bound to lose, or he has already lost, Trump’s main goal will be to beg, borrow and steal as much as possible and/or try to create a situation where the Republicans have an excuse to keep him in because of a crisis/emergency/catastrophic fuck-up. If neither of these are possible, he will escape the country with the aid of loyalists.
I’ve had thoughts about this, and my fantasy is that Biden puts out a memo telling Trump that Biden basically uses his looming state prosecution as a stick to keep him well behaved. He either stays compliant, or he uses his resources that he has now to run away to a country without extradition. Given his love for Russia, I’d honestly expect he’d run off there. Then, in the fantasy, Putin does what he would normally due with now useless assets.
Biden also threatens literally anyone who would follow Trump with punishment as soon as he takes office. If they do anything that could be interpreted as retaliation by Trump, those in the military get court martialed. Those in his cabinet get strung up by the states for abetting a criminal and possibly other crimes based on whatever they do. And he’ll pull funds to the states if they don’t do it.
Basically, he just actually asserts the power he has and uses it. Yes, even if it’s based on absentee votes, because, as the Republicans told us in 2016, that’s the system we agreed to.
Of course, I know 100% this is all fantasy. But, if Trump remains quiet or runs away to a country without an extradition treaty with the US, it will be my Onion-Biden version of reality.
The real reality, I have to just decide not to worry about, because worrying doesn’t help anything, and I have no power to control events.
Yep. They wont do anything but talk big.
Militia yahoos did a decent job of taking over a federal facility a few years ago in Oregon. And in that case, their motivation was only the arrest of a few ranchers for setting fires. Their motivation, and level of support, would be orders of magnitude greater in this case.
It’s easy to dismiss them as beer-swilling yokels, but there are plenty of them who don’t fit that mold, and plenty of the yokel-types to back the smart ones. I don’t think they’re going to overthrow the government, but they are certainly capable of major disruptions.
Because no one cared enough to oppose them. It was decided to let them stand around and look stupid.
If they had wanted to do something, SWAT and such would have taken them down in a minute.
That simply isn’t true. Loads of people in Oregon cared enough. The reason the feds decided to wait them out is because the militia was heavily armed and they wanted to avoid a bloodbath. It had nothing to do with people “not caring”.
Anyway, the argument was that the militias are incapable of planning anything, or won’t actually take action. This is demonstrably false.
The second those yahoos take over something important or shoot people as a tactic, police and National Guard will crush them like the vermin they are. The authorities won’t care if there is a bloodbath, as long as it is the disruptors who are doing the bleeding.
Kind of how the National Guard crushed the militia members who invaded the Michigan statehouse? Oh right, they did nothing.
Or how the police arrested the Trump supporters who beat counter-protesters with bats and shot them with paintball guns and mace? Oh right, the police let them fight, then rounded up the counter-protesters once the Trump supports had left.
You aren’t paying attention if you think that these people are incapable of actual violence, or that we can rely on authorities to immediately stop them.
But who would control the national guard and the federal police in the interim?
You guessed it.
Weird scenarios are what 2020 is all about
Get a grip, guys. As long as it is sporadic and non-lethal, the Guard and cops will support the yahoos. But the second it ceases to be non-lethal, you will see a crack-down that will make the Chinese envious. Cops value order over everything. When the yahoos are the ones that are causing the problems, they’ll get swatted, no matter what the cops personally think. The general population will demand it.
Of course, if the protesters are out from both sides, we are going to see a bloodbath. But they will still have to take action, because with all the cameras around, failing to do so will be tantamount to career suicide. For tRump to pardon them, they have to be identified. And none of the black-suited and black-hearted Authority figures could stand that if it means that the New World Order can come after them.
Looking at the PA situation that 538 discusses at length, there is one state official (I think the Secretary of State) who is charged with signing the certificate and for the legislature to send another one would have no more force than if I were to. And it is not the house and senate looking at the EVs separately, but sitting in joint session where it is almost certain the Dems will have a majority.