Let’s skip over the arguments of what is or isn’t probable-this is a hypothetical situation. Enough of the Electoral College, for various reasons, has switched votes and the results are in: Hillary Clinton wins. What immediately happens next? Does Trump have any legal recourse? Are all secret briefings held so far still secret under penalty of…whatever and, if so, for how long a period of time? Does Trump immediately lose his Secret Service detail?
The only recourse to challenging an electoral college result is as it is being counted in Congress. Once the Congress certifies that a candidate has 270 or more electoral votes, there is nothing anyone can do about it.
is everyone that has been briefed given an additional de-briefing? Is there anything in the rules to cover this situation?
Closest historical parallel would be Hayes/Tilden. But that was only possible because Congress was bought off by the end of Reconstruction. How are you going to buy off the Republicans in congress this time?
Why would they need to be “bought off”?
Because they have to certify the result.
And you don’t think they would?
Civil war.
Only way this could be peaceful if it is shown that Trump stole the election with the help of the Russians.
That’s not impossible, btw.
Are you saying that the results of the Electoral College would be rejected?
True enough about the possibility of substantial Russian aid to Trump being discovered.
But: civil war…hmn … I’m trying to picture the combatants.
Certainly many or most of Trump’s fans own firearms. However, they don’t seem likely to become a well-organized militia. Perhaps I’m being overly judgmental, but they don’t seem particularly amenable to training, nor willing to put their lives on the line. Loud declaiming/gloating at the Thanksgiving table: sure. But heading out to face down the National Guard??? …
Granted, some of the National Guard will themselves be Trump fans, as will many members of police departments, nationwide. And also many governors with the power to call out the Guard. And, okay, Congress with its power to call out militias. But the Obama Administration still has power under the Insurrection Act/2007 Defense Authorization Bill to deploy troops.
I would guess that if your ‘civil war’ prediction comes to pass it will be GOP governors and the troops they can call out, versus Obama and the troops he can call out. Seems unlikely that the people we’ve been seeing standing behind Trump at his rallies would play any substantial role. Those who’ve been marching in protest of November 8 might be more likely to come out (on the Clinton side, of course).
But until January 19, it’s surely still advantage-Obama. Thus his personal reaction to any particular vote on December 19 and any particular creativity in the counting of that vote on January 6, will probably be crucial in whether or not there is bloodshed.
We’ve had exactly one civil war in this nation (over slavery and states’ scope of self-determination), along a handful of rebellions primarily over slavery and taxation. Trump does not have the kind of overwhelming popular support that his boosters claim, and in fact most of the people who voted for him did so out of some degree of protest or dislike for Clinton. There might be some degree of civil unrest by certain extreme factions like the white nationalist wackadoos, but despite all of their radio talk show bombast and running around in the woods playing militia they aren’t going to amount to much, especially the first time they decide to get in a confrontation with police or National Guard.
As for the factual answers to the o.p.'s questions, the Electoral College electors are free to select who they want per the Constitution, and while individual states may contest an elector’s vote per their laws, once the vote has been certified as final there is no valid challenge; if she received a majority Hillary Clinton would be President (Elect) and Donald Trump could go back to lying about his personal wealth, selling shitty condos, and hosting beauty pageants. There is no procedure for how to debrief the former assumed President (Elect) but one can assume that he’ll receive a quiet briefing with a pointed reminder that intentionally divulging classified information is a felony, and a note from a relieved Reince Penis and GOP leadership telling him that if he doesn’t go quietly there will be a deep probe into his finances and business practices.
From a political standpoint, the GOP would still control both the Senate and House, blocking any legislative agenda from Clinton while reminding everyone that she won the office on a ‘technicality’ (that she carried the popular vote would be glossed over). Clinton becomes an ineffectual one term president because she can’t get anything passed and is under constant insinuation of scandal (real or manufactured, it doesn’t seem to matter to most people), while the GOP gets their shit together and conspires to select a candidate with better approval ratings than Clinton rather than be seen in a public death match of candidates. Oh, and Veep gets lambasted for not being as outrageous as reality, and Anna Chlumsky has to find a new role suiting her talents of firing wide-eyed profane insults in rapid fire fashion. By conceding the election as cleanly and graciously as she did, Clinton actually paved the way for a future Democratic candidate with favorable approval to come along and challenge Trump (or whomever is going to run in 2020) without having to carry baggage about being poor losers looking to ‘rig’ an election through legal gymnastics. Even if the Electoral College flipped out and voted a majority for Clinton despite the state counts, it would be a legal and political disaster.
Stranger
Right now, the Trumpeteers are praising the Electoral College, and telling the Left, ‘You lost. Get over it.’ (The irony that so many of the people saying ‘You lost. Get over it,’ are the same ones waving the Confederate battle flag, is lost on them.) They will never accept any result wherein Trump is not POTUS.
It would be sporadic and more on the lines of the Bundy’s.
Yes, Congress would block everything.
There will be no “future Democratic candidate with favorable approval”. The Rove and breitbart hate & lie machines will assure that.
Sure, better than Hillary’s, maybe. But I predict nothing significantly higher than 50%, in the last few months of the 2020 elections. No matter who they run.
Would this one be emotionally stable?
Because an emotionally stable GOP President in 2020 seems like a reasonable price to pay to avoid what we have now.
But in the end, it’s just pretty much impossible unless the Election is shown to be fixed.
Given the hypothetical, why? At this time we have a Prez-Elect that got more than a million fewer votes than his opponent-maybe that and news of his various appointments and future appointments changed a few minds in the EC…but for the purposes of this thread the reason it happened just doesn’t matter. All you have to do is accept the premise of this thread then go on.
Typo ensues.
As I understand it, the electoral votes for president and vice-president are separate, so what if the result was Clinton and Pence?
Actually, now that I think about it, if it was Clinton and Pence, I could see him just being frozen out for four years but alternately that Clinton might include him in forming policy as a sign of willingness to work with congressional Republicans as she has in the past. It might turn out to the best possible result overall.
It is impossible. Fake news and Russian propaganda is to Trump haters what the birth certificate was to Obama haters. Anybody who latched on to either theory is childish.
Clinton getting the Presidency by what can justifiably be called highly suspect means. And serving alongside a Republican Congress.
I hope nobody needs any government action in the next four years.