Israel will make lots of whatever is the proper Hebrew for bluster and then thats it. They are not going to go “medieval” on anyone. They are not stupid enough to start a ful on conflict with a nuclear power… maybe Bibi is, but they stil have the cabinet and the Kenesset to deal with.
The Saudi are going to go crazy but I doubt a Saudi programme wil go anywhere. They will need infrastructure which they don’t have and is going to be difficult to get.
Eventually the world will learn to live with this fact like they did with Pakistan and India.
Of course this is predicted on them having a reliable nuclear capability with the means to deliver it. Which is unlikely as hell right now.
Now, it might bestow a certain gravitas upon Iran, such that their diplomatic efforts would be taken more seriously worldwide. They could use the implicit power to back up their negotiations.
But, then, they might just bluster and rant and threaten to destroy Israel, and nobody would find it possible to admire them. The whole key to the scenario is: how do they behave? Do they join the grown-ups club…or do they act like spoiled infants? (Or…somewhere in between.)
The world would have an opportunity – the world has this opportunity now! – to engage with them in a way as to persuade them toward moderation. This is why we’re much better of negotiating with them than bombing them.
But note that North Korea is believed to possess only a very small number of bombs, none of them thermonuclear. Since a large fusion bomb has more than 10,000 times the power of a small fission bomb the distinction does seem important. Is it only the Big Five that have thermonuclear weapons?
Kudos to South Africa, Belarus, Kazahkstan and Ukraine, the only nuclear powers to abandon their capability. (Let us hope Texas joins that number when it secedes.)
Is this for real? North Korea has been formally engaged in a state for war with their archrival South Korea for five decades, and the two countries are separated by the world’s most heavily guarded border.
Yes, in that both are mainly bluster from leaders of a dilapidated third world country against a powerful western nation, and each would get obliterated if they tried to do so. But they each have the will and ability to harm their enemies–it’s the threat of adverse consequences that stops each of them.
Yes, because both countries’ desires to destroy their neighbors are far less strong than their desires not to be obliterated by the international community for starting a nuclear war.
I think both are irrational to some degree, but I don’t believe either are irrational enough to believe that they could get away with nuking Israel (for one thing, they would be almost immediately nuked by Israel).
Ukraine gave up its nukes in exchange for promises that the western powers (including the USA) would guarantee its territorial integrity. When it was invaded by a nuclear power, the western powers welched on those promises.
Saudi Arabia has already made overtures to Pakistan to buy nukes. Turkey and Egypt are also rumored to have nuclear ambitions.
I agree. The Iranian government is nowhere near as irrational as the North Korean government. If the world can live with a nuclear North Korea, it can live with a nuclear Iran.
The only immediate response to an announcement that Iran has a bomb would be political posturing. The long term response would that other countries would be more careful in their dealings with Iran.
I would never pretend to be an expert on these issues, but it’s an interesting subject to me, so I’ll have a go.
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I don’t want to hijack the other thread and this is just a hypothetical scenario:
Let’s assume Iran announced tomorrow “screw you all, we already have a bomb.”
Without a verifiable test, unlike North Korea, we can’t know for sure.
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Without a verifiable test, Iran doesn’t know for sure either. A gun-type device would probably get the desired degree of bang, but would be extremely dangerous to handle, and require a relatively large amount of fissionable material. An implosion-type device would be more efficient, but more much technically demanding.
I don’t have the knowledge or crystal ball to do much more than speculate, but I don’t see any particular reason why the reaction would be any stronger than that upon learning that North Korea has a (possibly workable) nuclear weapon.
No idea. I would hope not.
Then they’ll be bullshitting. I don’t think there’s the slightest chance Saudi Arabia could obtain and deploy nuclear weapons in six months, even if they managed to buy them from some sympathetic supplier.
IMO, no. Not even if you live in downtown Tel Aviv. Consider asking yourself two questions: What is most likely to happen if a country with hundreds of operational nuclear weapons is attacked by a country with one or two maybe workable nuclear weapons? What is the evidence that Iran’s government is suicidal in nature?
IMO, the ability to wave around a nuclear weapon would of greatest use to Iran as deterrent to adventurism by neighboring states, and as diplomatic leverage (as it is for most nuclear-armed countries).
I really doubt it. Nations that hate each other have learned to live together if the alternative is a nuclear war between them. Tensions between Israel and Iran are no worse than tensions have been between the United States and Soviet Union or India and Pakistan.
That would kind of defeat the whole reason for having nuclear weapons. Their possession gives Israel a strategic option that they have control of so they don’t have to depend on the United States or any outside power.
No, that’s not what was promised. America, Great Britain, and Russia promised to respect Ukrainian independence and to not invade Ukraine. But there was no promise to defend Ukraine if it was invaded. So when Russia broke its word and invaded Ukraine, the United States and United Kingdom were not obligated to fight.
If the US sit now with leader of North Korea and agree to end support for South Korea,end the US Amargo, open trade and agree not to invade North Korea and North Korea can do what ever they wont in their own backyard. And this Asia not North America backyard.
A peace treaty would be sign.
North Korea could care less what people in US worship,atheist or sinners or what, well Iran religious fanatic do.
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Saudi Arabia has already made overtures to Pakistan to buy nukes. Turkey and Egypt are also rumored to have nuclear ambitions.
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There is no way in hell that S Arabia is going to be able to buy nukes from Pakistan or anyone else. The strategic consequences for the seller would be nothing short of catastrophic for no gain.
Egypt and Turkey can have all the ambitions they want, but neither has the infrastructure or expertize . And before you bring up India and Pakistan, do know that as part of British India both countries had scientists who worked heavily in the Manhattan project and also after independence in the British programme.
I’d like further opinions. The article you linked to argues only that Israel doesn’t have the fighter-bomber capacity to deliver 200 bombs all at the same time.
The article acknowledges that they have processed enough Plutonium for 200 bombs.