And, of course that is exactly how Al Qaeda will interpret it, right? “Just a coincidence–had nothing at all to do with our bombs, Osama, nope. We might as well just quit. We have no effect on the world.”
Oh come on, its not that wild a piece of speculation, given the way that things have been going on there. But just to make it obvious, I’ll state the basic timeline (or whatever it’s called):
- US et al pull out of Iraq, say, next week.
- Current sectarian and other such words ending with -ian violence escalates beyond critical mass. The Governing Council falls to bits, Iraq falls into violent anarchy something like the popular conception of what Lebanon was in the 1980s (minus the IDF, not that Israel wouldn’t accused of masterminding the whole thing anyway.)
- Abdul Alhazred, strongarmed leader of some faction or other manages to claw, stab, shoot and blast his way to the top. Manages to “unite” the country again through terror or whatever, starts spending ill-gotten money on ugly palaces and dropping his opponents into wood chippers or paper shredders. In other words, same shit, different bastard.
First, nobody has pulled any troops out of anywhere yet and not going to until at least June this year. Second, if new Spain socialist government will indeed pull troops out of Iraq after June, it will be strictly a fulfillment of the promise they made to the electorate long before the 3-11 massacre. Ideally, political promises have to be kept, but in reality they are not made good on too often. Most likely we’ll see a lot of maneuvering, re-assignments and general muddle, with the outcome that majority of Spanish electorate will be somewhat satisfied and no terrorist is going to get a break. Which leads to third: let’s not be disheartened by ululating of some resident cretins here about how nobly peaceful and submissive Spanish people are; let’s look at the real Spain and it’s history. Spanish are pious, passionate, secretive and in time of troubles quite totalitarian, naturally inclined to lend power to Franco or Torquemada. I expect that real response to 3-11 will unfold over time and will be methodical and merciless, kind of like a new Inquisition. I wouldn’t go to Spain wearing flowing robes or even circumcision for the next 20 or 30 years, at least.
Where that came from? All the information about the van and other things was immediately available. Gov. took a stand on a certain version, but nothing was kept secret. And what was wrong with ETA version? ETA was a greatest terror menace in Spain for decades, their last act of terror was a series of simultaneous explosions in three different cities. What if “el Gobierno” blamed AQ and later it was found to be ETA? What would ‘Aldebaran’ say?
I’m afraid the war on terrorism is not going to be won through the symbolism of acts as interpreted by the ignorant.
If I were to advise the new Spanish prime minister, given his anti-occupation views, I would say that it is his legitimate choice to withdraw his troops from Iraq, but he’d be wise to move them to Afghanistan, where the heart of Al Qaeda still resides.
Looking at Ravenman post, it seems that the “liberal media” is not telling much of the background of what Spain is doing in Afghanistan:
http://smh.com.au/articles/2003/05/26/1053801346325.html
Zapatero, the new leader of Spain, is on record of supporting the efforts of Spain in Afghanistan, it just so happens that he an the majority of the Spanish people see the war in Iraq as a detour to the real deal that was to combat Al-queda and the people protecting them.
Looking at the latest news from Pakistan and Afghanistan, all the allies (France and Germany included) are now beating the crap of the enemy…
… Some people still think that is appeasement?
I would disagree… AQ has mostly been dispersed from Afghanistan and even if the Taliban retake it I doubt they will deal with AQ. The problem in Afghanistan now is basically the Taliban remnants.
If AQ members are operating there its more part of efforts to destabilize western influence in the area… not properly retake it.
For the record, I did not mean to imply that Spain is not doing anything in Afghanistan. To the contrary, Spain, France, Germany, Canada, and many other countries are doing yeoman’s work there.
I meant to say that Spain dedicating additional troops to ISAF, thereby speeding the expansion of ISAF into new areas, would be a far bigger “bang for the buck” in the war against terrorism than keeping a similar number of troops in Iraq.
Which social issues did he address? Foreign policy is not a “social issue.”
On the most basic level, politics coalesces into “economics” and “everything else”. Whether or not foreign policy is a social issue, social (as opposed to fiscal) conservatives have a definite common thread to their beliefs on foreign policies issues, for the most part.
Thakyou for the polite and warm reception you have afforded me. The reason my original post was so gaurded was after reading the launches I have seen against some attacks on the Spanish I was quite worried that the same might happen to me.
My FEC is Fadden for the Young Liberals, and yes we have a history of being a more socially responsible than some of the more hard right and hard left branches of my party. The chair of our branch is on the voting cards for the senate at the age of 26 and we are quite proud we helped to get him there. At conferences we also tend to be the people making the motions more reflective of the publics interest.
Bare in mind, these are my own beliefs and some may be incredibly hard to cite. If you want me to I will make a considerable effort to cite but it will be difficult.
My main reasoning behind the original post is that I am truely worried this may kick off another round of attacks. The, imho, bigest problem with terrorists is their ability to ignore logic. They consistantly will make attacks knowing that they will make little if no impact on worthwhile targets, but will still kill and injure a great deal of civillians. The real danger with the rest of the population is the old adage
Fear and poverty generally leads to finding a scape goat. Groups like AQ farm this response to create cells willing to fight for what they percieve to be a worthwhile cause. With the withdrawl of spanish troops the may percieve a victory. This would probably take the form of “Look, we attacked them and they left our homeland. Our holy war (jihad has to many meanings to be used properly here) has borne fruit from our own actions. If we attack more in this style we will eventually remove all the western heaten from our Islamic holy lands and then we will be free to practice our ways.” Now this is pure supposition but, judging by human nature, it is probably correct.
This is most of the reason I believe that the removal of troops from Iraq will be a grave mistake. I harbour no Illwill towards Spain. It is a country I admire greatly. I have been there twice on holiday, once to barcelona and once to Andelucia. If the attacks hadn’t happened then I probably would have supported the stance Spain is taking now. It shows that there are people with the bravery to stand up to people like the big dubbuyah but to the Jamah Islamir’s and AQ’s of this world it is an invitation to attack.
[aside] Don’t take my comments the wrong way. Caucasians are generally throughout history the worst perpatrators of fear based attacks. Witches, crusades and others prove this. Also, look at your own boards, it is generally the caucasians that provide racist view points. And before you think I am a black panther or similar, I am caucasian [/aside]
Translated for those who may still be lost: In the recent history of Anglo-American politics, (“social”)“conservatives” tend to be identified with policies favoring an expanded military, and a strategy of using said military in-force to total victory; an uncompromising, even confrontational stance vis-a-vis potential enemies; intervention, unilateral if need be, when necessary for the national interest; a realpolitik-based choice of foreign clients who will enforce our policies even if they’re bastards at home. (“social”) “Liberals” tend to be identified with a more limited military, a strategy of containment and limited engagements; a policy of compromise and engagement with potential adversaries; intervention based on multilateral consensus; expecting foreign clients to clean up their acts at home. The correlation of Hawk/Dove with conservative/liberal has to do with how the liberal would spend a “peace dividend” from a reduced military stance on social programs.
This is not always absolute in historic terms – pre-WW2 it was a respectably “conservative” position to be an isolationist who kept America unentangled from European conflicts.
Again, why do you believe al-Qaida needs an invitation to attack? Do you suppose that in the absence of Spain’s (eventual and conditional) withdrawal from Iraq they would be sitting on their hands just waiting for a sign?
Incidentally, the leader of your Liberal Party, PM Howard and his Foreign Minister have emphatically denied that Australia’s presence in Iraq increases the risk of terrorist attacks in this country. Do you agree?
To which state branch do you belong? For those following along at home, some examples of the “socially responsible” policies of the Young Liberals of NSW:
Nicely done, and thank you.
I entirely approve of the listed education policies. What the hell is their beef with Greenpeace, though? They’re not exactly ALF.
My FEC is located in QLD. We do approve of the harsher measures to be inforced in public schools, but that is mainly due to many in my branch being educated at private schools where the practice is already enforced and generally lends to a better learning environment.
The reason I believe that groups like JI and AQ need some reason to attack is that in every society there are right wing and left wing groups. They need to be able to have something to show to the less militant factions to show that their way is best.
Dogface
How they interpret it is irrelevant. They might just as well count the US withdrawal from Saudi Arabia as a victory brought about by the effect on the world of 9/11.
Iskander
They inexplicably tried to force a UN resolution blaming ETA, did not release important known details for many hours, and are even accused of handing over misinformation. Whether or not any of this is justified or was not my point; rightly or wrongly, this certainly disgusted many Spaniards.
Oh, by the way…
Legend of Tenshi, as you can see there was nothing to fear or apologize preemptively for with your post. You have posted your opinion that a pull-out is the wrong move, AND explained your basis for that opinion, in a very sensible civilized fashion, without impugning a whole nation’s (or continent’s) manhood in the thread title or hurling gratuitious half-informed(at best) invective in the OP. Well done.
However, that hasn’t stopped some posters (Really Not All That Bright) have still seen fit to hurl gratuitous insults at him for it.
We don’t know what happened. Some people presume that Spanish chickened out, some are saying they were suddenly disgusted with PP: I think both statements are too simplistic. From the outside, we may tend to discount ETA threat as insignificant; try to imagine what Spanish think: ETA was ever present threat for more than 20 years, they murdered many people, PP and Socialist politicians indiscriminately, attempted to kill the King, were hunted both by PP and Socialists. Suddenly, when an enormous atrocity happens, Gov. is supposed to say, “This time we have to look elsewhere”, right from the start? In US there is nothing like ETA or IRA, we were hit once, we don’t know what a constant reality of terror is, year after year; are we really qualified to judge the situation in Spain?
Um… what?
You call that a gratuitous insult? No, actually you call that multiple hurled insults. Please read my posts rather than assume that they are insulting.