Collect underpants.
Seriously, there’s a critical shortage of underpants over there. Lots of pent-up demand.
Ahh, but will we value the North Korean at the ‘official rate’ or the street rate?
“When there’s blood in the streets, buy property.”
~Arthur Case
-Margaret Mitchell, Gone With the Wind, Ch. 9
How about trying to serve some kind of economic purpose? Just looking to “profit” probably means you have to make a bet with a bookie or other willing person. For what it’s worth, I will give you evens on it collapsing during the next 12 months. Your size, big boy.
For example, if there is any dishonoured north korean debt still avaliable to buy, you could probably buy a million dollars worth for $5. I learned from an interesting book written by a guy who died of liver cancer who lived in pyongyang for a year in the late 80s they had plenty of it, but I don’t know if any of it was in the form of securities or still exists. The book, which is fascinating, is here.
Or perhaps you could start doing business there now. Doesn’t really have to make any money, just break even. If the place collapses you are in prime position to be a “consultant” - there’ll be huge demand and very little supply.
The other thing you could do that would be useful is to provide insurance to people who would be in trouble if the regime doesn’t collapse - I don’t know who these people/firms are, but they must exist. If it collapses, then you don’t have to pay out. Easy money.
This sounds like a possible winner, I wonder if there are people doing that right now. Has Jong-Un’s ascent led to increased foreign interest in investing?
You can gain exposure (long or short) to Chinese and Korean stock markets through ETFs:
Roombas. Buy stock in iRobot. Millions upon millions of exploding Roombas; it’s only inevitable.
Interesting thread-if the experience of the former East Germany is any guide, firms that make concrete, and construction firms will benefit hugely. North Korea will need many infrastructure repairs and developments-so people who supply cement/building materials will benefit. This would be a great deal for South Korea-while the cost of modernizing the north would be huge, their own idustries wold boom.
Ironically China has this problem already.
I would assume North korea, if it fell, would be replaced by an autocratic kleptocracy (but not as bad as the current one) so getting in good with those people would get you some money. I don’t know if they’d transition to an open liberal democracy, or what would happen. The North Korean people seem pretty (from the outside at least) brainwashed, physically sick and mentally ill (starvation and abuse screw with your mind). In fact I read that the North Korean refugees in South Korea are at risk of being a permanent underclass because of all the physical and mental illnesses they have from living in the North, combined with their inability to follow the fast pace of technology and it leaves them behind. So who knows what kind of government would replace the Kim dynasty. But the concept of a democracy with all its informed, fearless and activist civic participation may be a while off. But I could be wrong.
Also shorting various markets in South Korea and China may help make some money.
DAMN, beat me to it! 