As in the title. Suppose I have a strong belief that the Kim family regime is about to fall, and want to make an investment/speculation that would gain in value and/or produce income if this turned out to be the case.
Is there any investment that would work, other than calling a bookie? I.e. I’m actually talking about investing in a business, fund, in land, in futures contracts, in commodities, etc.
Instability of any type in N. Korea seems to have a bad effect on S. Korean stocks (it fell about 5% when Il died), so you could short the Korean Exchange.
Noting this famous picture, I would think investing in regional engineering companies that may be contracted to modernize electrical generation and distribution systems would be a pretty good bet. In fact, I think pretty much any area in which you think North Korea could get a good amount of foreign aid for, I’d probably go long in those industries. Like, Japanese and South Korean fertilizer manufacturers, construction equipment, pharmaceuticals, and so on.
Real Estate in the DMZ?
Beautiful one-bedroom shack with original floors! Within walking distance to both Koreas. The presence of tens of thousand of land mines makes it an excellent fixer-upper prospect. Must be seen to be believed!
Terrible bet. There’s landmines everywhere that will probably never be cleared. ETA: You can’t buy property in the DMZ anyways. The private land there is basically handed down from family to family.
Locate families that own land, by title deed (S Korean) in North Korea.
Offer them a watch or TV per acre.
Collect after re-unification.
Might work.
Why wouldn’t they be cleared? We’re talking about a first world nation, with all the capabilities that implies, not Laos or Cambodia. I’d imagine the South Koreans would have all but the most inaccessible parts of the DMZ fully cleared within 5 years of reunification.
Still won’t help the OP though if the land isn’t available for sale though.
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Moved thread to IMHO.
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The best I can do is Intrade, which is not a bookie but is similar. Right now they’ve only got a “Will the US take overt military action against North Korea in 2012?”, though. You can suggest new markets to them if you’d like.
Because it is really, really hard to clear land of unexploded ordnance. It’s one thing to do a good job of clearing mines – but doing a perfect job is really time consuming.
For example, here in DC, the Army tested chemical weapons in what used to be an undeveloped part of town. Every once in a while a residual weapon will be found in what is now a very nice part of town.
The DMZ has been littered with literally millions of landmines for more than half a century.
You should take a look at who made money after the collapse of Eastern Germany. When N. Korea goes you’re going to have China, S. Korea, Russia and the US all trying to have a hand in its reconstruction. The country is going to need everything from agrarian reform to cell phone towers, internet, water purficationa and electrification. Companies are going to be tripping over themselves to be the ones to provide it and in the early days there will be a lot of misteps and conmen who will be selling access that they don’t have. You will also have a lot of former N. Korea elites who will be trying to either retain their status or jump the line to get control of more of the country.
What N. Korea will have in the early days is natural resources, but not much else to offer. But there will be a huge influx of aid going into the country to try to establish some kind of functioning economy, lots of factories will be built, most will fail. Add to this the fact that the country has zero experience with rule of law or private enterprise and the first ten years are going to be the wild west with the rise of criminal gangs and new elites who look a lot like some of the old elites.
Shovels. For the bodies.
Wow you’re even more pessimistic than I am.
I was going to say stock in weapons.
And yet the former weapons testing site is now a fully developed nice part of town. So while not being absolutely cleared the land’s still usable. Anything that survives the mine flails, fires and whatever else the Koreans employ to clear the DMZ is likely to be pretty damn inert anyway. I’m sticking to my within 5 year timeframe.
Great. It is a bet, then. I wager 1,000 won.
China does not want the North Korean regime to fall because they are afraid they will have millions of starving people attempting to cross their border in search of food. So I think you should make bets against China and South Korea if you want to profit off this. I don’t know how to make those bets since it may not be easy for foreigners to short stocks in China and S. Korea.
You’re on. The five years start running from the date reunification is declared. I win if the vast majority (with the exception of the most inaccessible bits ie mountainous or swampy) of the DMZ is cleared enough to allow for ordinary civilian use at the end of that five-year period. You win if not. Loser pays 1,000 won to the winner (or the equivalent in the new reunification currency). Happy with those terms?
A square deal through and through, and I accept your terms.
ETA: I will be satisfied with won from either North or South Korea. You know, depending who wins.