Thankfully, I have sufficient manual dexterity to avoid clicking links that I am not interested in and, should I discover that I have accidentally clicked into something that doesn’t interest me, I am also usually able to find the back button.
You must spend an awful amount of time reading through every single post of every single thread, here on the SDMB. I’m so thankful that my powers of self-will and mouse coordination are in peak condition.
You do understand that when someone wins a jackpot in Vegas, the odds that they would win are not in fact any different than they were before?
Based on all historical statistics, it was improbable that Trump would pull ahead. That was factually true. But improbable is not impossible. Trump won the lottery. All Silver did was quantify how hard a lottery it was to win.
Trump in the primaries and Trump in the general election aren’t uncorrelated events. The odds of Trump winning both are far greater than their models had/are predicting. Statistics based on past history break down when something ahistorical is going on. Esp. when the polls and votes have been often so divergent. (Remember the GOP Michigan primary?)
Stat-wise, this is a mess. And they are not anywhere close to dealing with it. They have no real idea what the sigmas should be.
No. Trump didn’t even win the Republicans. If others had continue to challenge him, it would have gone into a brokered convention due to a lack of sufficient support. His current standing within his own party is quite low. I don’t recall the numbers exactly, but I think it was something like 55% support from Republican men and 40% support from Republican women.
Trump is unpopular with women, all minorities, liberals, and independents. If you tally that up and include the lukewarm support within his own party, Silver’s current predictions are wildly optimistic. Factually, Trump can’t win with the support he has from the general public. His only chance is that the Electoral College is full of white men (which it may be).
It’s horribly designed.
It doesn’t update in a way that I can easily understand. I see the “The Latest” column of headlines, but some recent articles don’t make it there at all. Some things seem to stay on the front page for months (why? I don’t know. Not sure they do either.). Navigation is non-intuitive. (For example, I could go to the politics tab, but then I’d miss the article called “Trump and Clinton Can Both Spin The Latest Jobs Report” which seems political to me, but is somehow just on the Economics tab.)
Plus, it’s really, really ugly.
I think there’s good information in there, it’s just very hard to get to it on my own.