I was just watching ESPN First Take, and they had a guy on from Baseball Prospectus who was apparently the only person in the known universe to predict that the Tampa Bay Rays could win the AL East. That person created a program to analyze and predict each individual player’s performance in order to come up with a prediction that even Vegas thought was preposterous. His name? Nate Silver.
At the end of the show, they gave him a generous plug of FiveThirtyEight.com. The whole time before that, I was thinking “Is it possible there could be more than one stats freak out there named Nate Silver?” So it is definitely the same guy.
Now, I haven’t looked to far into the methodology used on FiveThirtyEight, but if he could come up with something that predicted the Rays going this far, I have to think that the guy knows what he’s doing, more so than I thought before, when he was just some Democrat crunching numbers.
I’m not sure if there’s much of a huge debate here, but do you think more of Nate Silver after hearing that? Or do you think that there couldn’t possibly be enough crossover between the two arenas (statistical analysis of sports vs. politics) for him to be equally as precise at both?