I don't understand what voters Trump could've picked up between 2016 and 2020

[FlikTheBlue]

@flurb

Zapata County, Texas, lies on the U.S.-Mexican border. Trump’s border wall would run right through it. It is overwhelmingly Hispanic. I’d wager 90% of the population is bilingual. Families have members on both sides of the border, cultural ties with Mexico are strong, and the economy is strongly dependent on cross-border travel and trade. Clinton carried Zapata County by 33 points in 2016.

Trump won it by 5 points this year.

@QuickSilver

Naturalized Hispanics who came here well before Trump have established themselves in a niche segment of the economy. They are not perhaps doing as well as natural born Americans, but better than the new comers, many of whom are coming either illegally or claiming refugee status. Without sufficient upward mobility, naturalized Hispanics are feeling economic pressure from newcomers because they compete for many of the same jobs and will work for less money. So they will vote for the guy who they hate but who promises to essentially protect them from competition by closing the border.

I’ve done some occasional work as the attending physician at an urgent care in Zapata, with my most recent shift during the Obama years. Zapata is a small town, overwhelmingly Latino, with the vast majority of people either bilingual or Spanish speaking only. There are very few “gringos” in town, and the few white people who are there aren’t the people in charge. The community is also overwhelmingly blue collar and not well educated, with farming and the oil fields being the primary employment opportunities.

Given all that, I can see why the voters there tilted more towards Trump this year. They likely don’t see themselves as being oppressed by white people, mostly because they don’t routinely encounter white people, so how could they be oppressed by someone who isn’t even there? On the other hand, threaten to take away their oil field jobs, which is what their economy runs on, and they won’t be happy.

[FlikTheBlue]

Putting my optimistic hat on, I think there are two strategic issues that made a difference, possibly a large one, compared to 2016. This could help explain why 2018 went better for Democrats than 2020 did. Maybe worrying about where things went wrong with policy issues misses the forest for the trees.

One is that Republicans campaigned door to door and held huge rallies, while Democrats didn’t. Obviously in 2018 this wasn’t yet an issue. By 2024 Covid-19 should no longer be the issue it is now and Democrats won’t be at the same disadvantage.

The other is that as POTUS, Trump’s lies were amplified by his bully pulpit. In 2018, since Trump himself wasn’t on the ballot, this wasn’t as big a problem as it was in 2020. The Republican candidate in 2024 won’t be the incumbent, so whatever lies they try to spread won’t have the same ability to reach the entire population.

[QuickSilver]

@FlikTheBlue

I’ve done some occasional work as the attending physician at an urgent care in Zapata, with my most recent shift during the Obama years. Zapata is a small town, overwhelmingly Latino, with the vast majority of people either bilingual or Spanish speaking only. There are very few “gringos” in town, and the few white people who are there aren’t the people in charge. The community is also overwhelmingly blue collar and not well educated, with farming and the oil fields being the primary employment opportunities.

Given all that, I can see why the voters there tilted more towards Trump this year. They likely don’t see themselves as being oppressed by white people, mostly because they don’t routinely encounter white people, so how could they be oppressed by someone who isn’t even there? On the other hand, threaten to take away their oil field jobs, which is what their economy runs on, and they won’t be happy.

I think that kind of supports what I’m saying. These people are limited in their economic mobility and upward mobility due to lack of education and lack of English language fluency (in some cases). Additionally, I don’t know how many of them own the farmland or are simply there as farm workers. Almost certainly they don’t own the oil fields. But in both cases, they know who the owners are, who hires them, or who buys their produce. So in the time you spent there, did you ever get a sense of how they viewed new Hispanic immigrants and refugees?

[k9bfriender]

@DemonTree

That’s difficult. Even in science it’s more honoured in theory than practice - scientists most often disprove each other’s theories.

There’s good science and there’s bad science. Most scientist don’t want to be proved wrong by someone else, especially not on something stupid, so do bother to double check their results.

But, that’s the whole point of peer review, to see if you missed something stupid.

@DemonTree

Do you know what drew him to those beliefs in the first place? (And why did you turn out so differently?)

That may have been my fault, kinda. He didn’t like paying taxes, and hadn’t paid them since 1989. This was late 90’s, and I was well versed in pretty much everything that existed on the internet. I told him about Sovereign Citizens, meant disparagingly, and how they also say you don’t have to pay taxes.

He went into full bore.

TMI

But, as to what causes that sort of radicalization, he was a bit of a failure. Couldn’t hold a job, so he insisted that he hated bosses, and started working for himself in landscaping. Wasn’t too bad at landscaping, but terrible at business. He couldn’t keep an employee, I even worked for him for a bit, and it was one of the most miserable times of my life, even though I actually did like the work. He also pretty much never paid me.

But, anyway, not meaning to bitch about my brother, but use him as an example… He lived by himself, worked by himself. His only contact was with customers who he treated with contempt. He did briefly have a girlfriend, who he had a kid with, but she couldn’t stand him. He had nothing but contempt for her or for his daughter.

He even once approached me with one of those pick up artist books, and started telling me all about how great it was, even though I’m pretty sure it never worked for him.

Anyway, bit of a sociopath. Didn’t care for anyone but himself, the only attention he paid to others was for what they could do for him.

I bought him a truck for his “company.” Almost $10,000 I paid to buy this thing. He promised to pay me back, never saw a penny. But he did offer me some vouchers that I could show up at Fort Knox and they would give me the gold out of his account.

I don’t talk to him much, last time I talked to him a couple years ago he was talking about this bitcoin scam that he was into. Apparently made a bunch of money (bitcoin) the first time, but for some reason has been losing money ever since.

He went on to tell me how to run my company, which is doing quite well. He told me that I should be careful, as there was a particular date that the whole economy was going to crash down. I don’t remember the name of the guy who predicted it, but when I got home, I did a search here on SDMB, and there was quite the thread about this fraudster. He had something about a cyclical nature of things, and used Pi to predict the next crash. Didn’t happen.

For an example of investigation, he also told me all about “Trompes”, which I will admit I had not heard of. But, he started telling me things about this that I did not think was physically possible. I looked around and found this video which I realized that he had been repeating almost verbatim. I then went on to watch a couple other of that guy’s videos and his claims were even more delusional. Exactly what people like my brother eat up.

OTOH, after I had discovered the SC claims, the first thing that I did was to see if they were true. On a rather cursory glance, I found that they was not. There was even a forum, I think it was quatloos that went into great detail about the SC scam. He ignored anything that didn’t tell him what he wanted to hear.

I told him that if he followed their advice, then he would be screaming, “You can’t arrest me, I am not under your jurisdiction!” as they dragged him off in handcuffs. Which is pretty much exactly what happened.

Ended up spending a number of years in jail over child support and taxes.

@DemonTree

That last part does make it worse… do people like this see any media outside their bubble? Suppose the Democrats changed their message, would they know?

As they don’t know what the current Democratic message is, my guess is not. BTW, when he came to pick up his dog later, he had quite an earful to give me. I don’t even know how to coherently describe it. Something about how they moved the machines into a convention hall, and how he was sending Trump messages to keep him up to date… I did record it this time, and playing it back, I couldn’t make heads or tails of it.

@DemonTree

This is always gonna be the case, unfortunately. And what about the CHOP? That was real, right?

What about it was real? That there was a temporary protest where they asked law enforcement to stay out of a city block for a while? Yes.

That it was a hellscape of violence and looting? No.

@DemonTree

They’ve been in charge of the lower house for two years. I know the Republicans would probably block it, but have they tried doing any of this stuff?

Yeah. They have passed literally hundreds of bills that McConnel directs to the circular file.

@DemonTree

I forgot Obama started the kids in cages thing, I just meant find a non-cruel way to reduce illegal immigration.

Didn’t really start the kids in cages thing… there was a large influx of unaccompanied minors, and no where to put them. So, temporarily, they were held in less than preferable conditions. Every effort was made to place them in better accommodations as quickly as possible.

That is very different from deliberately putting them in these conditions specifically to deter others from seeking asylum.

But, as far as the best non-cruel way to reduce illegal immigration is to increase legal immigration. If people are fleeing for their lives, the only non-cruel thing to do is to let them in. Anything else is cruelty.

@DemonTree

From what I’ve seen the right-wing press is usually highlighting stuff AOC and other less mainstream but still popular politicians do and say. It’s all about tribalism; if part of the tribe supports something then the leadership is considered to represent that too.

Yeah, that’s a pretty stupid way of looking at things. It’s not like the leaders actually have any control over what those under them do or say.

But, it does work. Biden has been smeared with the green new deal and other things that have been advocated by the far left that he has explicitly rejected.

[k9bfriender]

@flurb

I do think that when the final analysis comes in that we’ll find that “Defund the Police” was a surprisingly effective cudgel for Republicans.

I am not surprised. It was repeated over and over and over and over again on right wing media. It was made to represent the mainstream liberal view on police reform.

It didn’t matter that no actual politician ever used those words. It wouldn’t have mattered if the protestors had stopped using the slogan after the first day. The moment that the right wing had a picture of a sign and audio of anyone saying the words, the damage was done.

A slogan that was used to motivate people to get out and protest against the injustice and terrorism that they experience became a cudgel of the right, just like that.

They never look past the slogan. 3 words are all they can fit inside their cognitive space at one time.

[Velocity]

@Wesley_Clark

what’s scary is this is validation that the public want fascism and white nationalism. it’s not a fluke and now the gop will go full boat into fascism without hiding it.

In 2024, the GOP will nominate someone just like Trump, minus all of Trump’s flaws.

They will conclude that Trumpism and appeal to grievances works very well; it’s just that Trump himself botched it by putting his foot in his mouth hundreds of times. They will hone and finely tune it and present a much younger, more eloquent, gaffe-free candidate who knows how to strike every Trump chord. Such a candidate could get 5-10 million more votes than Trump.

[DemonTree]

@QuickSilver

A frequent conservative poster in the election thread was presented with evidence about the Walk-Away Movement , he dismissed it because it was ‘left-wing propaganda’. Now, it seemed clear to me that he spend virtually no time looking through the linked references, most of which were wikipedia based. He just angrily dismissed it and walked off in huff, insisting he was right without a single shred of evidence . Where and how do we even begin a conversation with him?

Hmmm. And yet here he is, getting outside his bubble and talking to a bunch of liberals. That shows at least some degree of openness. But in general, I think people are much more likely to listen to members of their own ‘tribe’. If we agree on nine out of ten things and I see you as similar to myself, I’ll be much more willing to listen to you on the tenth issue and really take what you are saying on board. Presumably there’s a range of voters between die-hard Trump supporters and people who flipped their votes this time because they thought he was the best option, and it’s the latter you need to target.

[DemonTree]

@k9bfriender

Yeah, that’s a pretty stupid way of looking at things. It’s not like the leaders actually have any control over what those under them do or say.

Wait, what? Obviously they can’t stop people talking, but don’t they have the power to chuck representatives out of the party if they go too far off-message?

[FlikTheBlue]

@QuickSilver

So in the time you spent there, did you ever get a sense of how they viewed new Hispanic immigrants and refugees?

It actually wasn’t that big of an issue from what I could gather. Of course I wasn’t checking people’s papers, but unlike a lot of other border cities, there isn’t a border crossing in Zapata, and no town on the Mexican side of the border. Ordinary immigrants coming from Mexico probably wouldn’t be looking to go to Zapata. The main issue was drug trafficking rather than immigration. There is a lake on the border in Zapata, and back in 2010 there was an American who was killed while on his boat, likely by drug traffickers.

[Toxylon]

@QuickSilver

Democrats have hearts too. Their heart break when they see kids in cages, neo-nazis marching, white supremacist terrorism on the rise, so many other callous acts committed by this administration with the support of right wing activism and GOP members.

Why don’t those things appeal to the hearts (and minds) of Trump supporters in the same way?

I think the answer is pretty obvious: they cage the insignificant kids of the Other, while it’s their Friends and Allies who march for the Right Cause.

[k9bfriender]

@DemonTree

here he is, getting outside his bubble and talking to a bunch of liberals.

My emphasis.

What you mean is “at”.

@DemonTree

That shows at least some degree of openness.

No, that shows a desire to convert others, not an openness to be converted.

@DemonTree

But in general, I think people are much more likely to listen to members of their own ‘tribe’.

While I don’t entirely disagree, one of the reasons that I am more likely to listen to members of my own “tribe”, is because they have a reputation for honesty and diligence with their claims and reasonings.

@DemonTree

If we agree on nine out of ten things and I see you as similar to myself, I’ll be much more willing to listen to you on the tenth issue and really take what you are saying on board.

That’s exactly how a con works. Lies are most effective when hidden among truths.

@DemonTree

they thought he was the best option, and it’s the latter you need to target.

It is hard to target someone when they have the ability to choose what to hear.

[k9bfriender]

@DemonTree

Obviously they can’t stop people talking, but don’t they have the power to chuck representatives out of the party if they go too far off-message?

No, only the voters have that power.

AOC is not making declarations as to the beliefs or direction of the Democratic party. She is only making suggestions as to where she thinks it should go. That’s just freedom of speech, something that the Republicans should have a great deal of respect for.

[QuickSilver]

@DemonTree

Presumably there’s a range of voters between die-hard Trump supporters and people who flipped their votes this time because they thought he was the best option, and it’s the latter you need to target.

I don’t know that there were. This seems to me to be a similar hypothesis that there were Obama voters who voted for Trump. There is no actual evidence this ever happened in numbers significant enough to make a statistical difference. I’d wager that the “flipped” voters in this election (blacks, hispanics, etc) are not flipped voters but new voters who did not vote previously. Given the much larger overall voter totals, that seems to be the more likely explanation for higher numbers seen in the Trump column.

But I accept that not every Trump voter is an unrepentant deplorable. A “soft” Trump voter that sat on his/her ass last time, came out in 2020 to support Trump. Now, why did they do that? What specific new argument or policy did Trump implement that would motivate a black or hispanic voter to get off the couch and vote for him? Rather than speculate and then have an argument with myself, I’d love to hear someone come into this thread and offer one, so we can have that civil conversation and see what factual basis their decision was based on. But I don’t think there is room for that given the example I used, nor various others I’ve seen to date. Now, is that me living in my liberal bubble?

[k9bfriender]

@QuickSilver

But I don’t think there is room for that given the example I used, nor various others I’ve seen to date. Now, is that me living in my liberal bubble?

To be honest, I’ve tried leaving my bubble. I’ve perused right wing forums and reddits.

And, either I’m so encapsulated in my bubble that my entire world view is wrong, or theirs is, because there is no bridging that gap. The things that they seem to be not only untrue, but impossible by logic, science, or math. They are self contradictory, and seem to have no shame about it. There’s not only no self restraint, there is no check on others as well.

Either I’m too delusional to be reformed, or they are, but I just don’t see how there can be an actual factual and civil conversation.

But, I would presume that they voted for Trump out of the belief that he is better for the economy. Anyone working in oil is going to prefer Trump, as he tells them what they want to hear, and Biden made the mistake of telling the truth that the oil industry is not sustainable long term. The economy did do fairly well under Trump. That it continued the trend that had been created by the work of the previous administration doesn’t matter, it matters that they got that job or that raise while Trump was in the White House.

Which parent do you prefer? The one that makes you do your homework, clean your room, and do your chores before you can watch TV? Or the one that brings you ice cream while you watch cartoons all day long?

I know which one I prefer(from a child’s perspective), but I also know which one raises a better kid.

The problem is that people are not willing to do the work, they just want to get the benefit. Ask not what you can do for your country, but only what your country can do for you.

[DavidNRockies]

@k9bfriender

Which parent do you prefer? The one that makes you do your homework, clean your room, and do your chores before you can watch TV? Or the one that brings you ice cream while you watch cartoons all day long?

Haven’t been here all that long, but have really come to appreciate the way you make your points.

On this one … I’ve long said that one party serves M&M’s for dinner, while the other one dishes out brussel sprouts

[QuickSilver]

Right. And given your professional, personal and family circumstance, I take the experiences you’ve shared to heart because people like you are so much closer to it than what I’ve been exposed to through various media and internet venues.

[Velocity]

Although I would dispute that analogy, it is true that one of the disadvantages of democracy is that it’s sometimes all but impossible to persuade voters to pass something that forces short-term pain but gets long-term gain.

That is - theoretically - one of the benefits of tyranny. You can force people to swallow their good-for-you medicine.

[QuickSilver]

@k9bfriender

Which parent do you prefer? The one that makes you do your homework, clean your room, and do your chores before you can watch TV? Or the one that brings you ice cream while you watch cartoons all day long?

I wouldn’t know. Mine took turns beating me.

Kidding. Mostly.

I grew up with parents that were pretty much on the same page.

[Velocity]

@k9bfriender

To be honest, I’ve tried leaving my bubble. I’ve perused right wing forums and reddits.

And, either I’m so encapsulated in my bubble that my entire world view is wrong, or theirs is, because there is no bridging that gap. The things that they seem to be not only untrue, but impossible by logic, science, or math. They are self contradictory, and seem to have no shame about it. There’s not only no self restraint, there is no check on others as well.

I’ve been suspended from a conservative message board for being too liberal, and banned from Democratic Underground for being too conservative. Sometimes the world is a weird place.

[QuickSilver]

Back on topic, you said recently that your mom voted for Trump because she heard that Biden would undermine Christian values and that you were in agreement with that to some extent. I asked you why you thought that but I don’t recall a response. Probably because there is so much going on in theses threads. So if I may ask you again, do you still feel that way and why?