Right wing populists are winning all over the world. If it is any consolation, since they win by making promises to the "masses’ which they either can not or will not keep, often the electorate gets smart and turns them out- trump, Boris, Bolsonaro, etc.
However, Netanyahu keeps getting in. sigh.
In some nations a right wing populist turns fascist and it spells the end of democracy (see Putin). The MAGAs here in the USA have made that clear that is their plan.
The problem is that Milei is being backed by the traditional right, between their combined power in congress and the right’s mediatic and establishment power they will be able to do a lot.
Furthermore, the last time the right was in power a lot of peronist representatives became turncoats for hidden or not-so-hidden monetary rewards or appointments to certain sinecures or positions of power.
That will be the test here, it’s by no means guaranteed that our democracy will survive, not because of the libertarian component of the winning coalition but because of their ties with the more reactionary and authoritarian elements of the right.
Both the president and the VP have said that the crimes of the last military dictatorships (kidnapping, torturing and throwing dissidents into the river, stealing their children and any wealth they had in the process) were just “excesses” in a war against leftist guerrillas (guerrillas that were practically annihilated in the year before the coup or at most a year after it).
The VP used to visit the condemned dictators in their prison cells for Christ’s sake.
The demons we thought were buried forever are back for vengeance I fear.
@Frodo all I can say is my condolences. I hope it’s not as bad as it seems it will be. Maybe as suggested, their incompetency will prevent them from doing more damage than they would otherwise.
Like a drunk person who gets behind the wheel of a car and is too drunk to start it properly, and just falls asleep in the front seat.
When Trump won, I remember saying “We survived W. We can survive Trump.”
We still haven’t survived Trump.
Great, rumors of a new pandemic in China
With a libertarian as a president, what can go wrong?
@Frodo, my condolences. I visited Argentina eighteen years ago, I loved it. I’m sorry, especially with everything that you guys have endured already in the previous century. Let’s hope he either stumbles or is booted out. May Diego Maradona lend a helping hand if needed.
In the meantime my country has gone apeshit as well, unfortunately, with Wilders in a landslide victory. We’ll see, I guess. There are protests already.
My condolences to you too, there’s a global epidemic of right-wing stupidity, who knows when and how it will end? I doubt it will be pretty.
I was so lucky to actually see him up close when he happened to travel from Amsterdam to Buenos Aires after a Boca Juniors match. Not on the same plane as we were but close by. We were just outside at Ezeiza, smoking a cigarette and all of a sudden all these cameras were flashing. And there he was. I’m not even a big soccer fan but what a guy. If he still controls la Mano de Dios who knows. All the best.
This NY Times article (gift link) gives key context about the Argentine economy and why populist proposals appeal to so many.
TL;DR: Inflation-plagued Argentina desperately needs an official hard currency. But jumping into dollarization (as president-elect Milei wants to do) without abundant state reserves and careful preparation is likely to make things even worse, especially for the precariat.
Yeah, this kind of monster doesn’t grow in stable, prospering countries, we are in a fix and no mistake, this just happens to be the classic “Clear, simple, and wrong” solution.
(That said, the US was, looking from here, pretty stable and prospering when Trump appeared)
The problem with (US) dollarization, as so many other countries have learned to their chagrin, is that the US Federal Reserve bank and the US Congress care exactly ZERO for how our monetary and fiscal polices respectively affect anyone but the USA.
To the degree your (any your) economy is not identical to the USA’s and in the same phase of the business cycle, we will be setting interest and inflation rates that make your (any your) problems far, far worse. And happily so from our end. Strapping yourself to the business end of a bucking bronco is not a recipe for a smooth and soothing ride.
But for a few countries - Ecuador, Panama, El Salvador - the benefits seem to outweigh the costs.
What zimaane said.
I do think that having your own central bank is a plus if run wisely, and for reasons you suggest. But if your country has this economic history, maybe first you need some stable peg.
When asked what country he sees as an economic model, Milei said Ireland, and they do have some central banking despite being in the Eurozone.
Milei doesn’t have the votes in the legislature for dollarization. And everything I read, except for one very well informed poster here, says that the legislature is a real check on his power. So he’s not going to be able to govern as radically as he ran for office.
His presidency probably will be a failure, as so many are in so many countries, if only because his party did so badly in the legislative elections. But, despite all his bombast, Milei does know a lot about macroeconomics. So I don’t judge him by the foreigners he associates with, and hope there is hope.
ETA: @zimaane 2 posts up:
They have each paid grievously at various points in their economic cycle.
But if indeed they have bad politicians and a set of laws that mean the central bank’s primary job is delivering a jolt of fake prosperity in the run-up to each election, then yes, the harm done to the larger economy by dollarization may well be less than the harm done by shit institutions & shit leadership.
It’s a variant on the classic tale of the husband asking his wife to lock up the booze so he won’t go on a bender. Or the wife asking hubby to cut up her credit card before she bankrupts both of them. It’s the wrong solution to a real problem.
We’ve been telling them this since this nightmare started.
Furthermore, we are our own country dammit, selling our economic sovereignty like that is disgusting.
We are not rich, never have been (except perhaps for that blip at the beginning of the 20th century, but we’ve already discussed that), but we’ve always been proud, too much so perhaps, at times.
If these bastards manage to kill that pride we’ll be just another banana republic, kowtowing to those more powerful to ourselves for scraps.
I think you are correct and he doesn’t have the votes for dollarization, today, the future is anybody’s guess but there is as of yet not enough support for that.
The legislature being check on his power… depends, if rumours are true his party is being thoroughly co-opted by the more “traditional” right, how far to the right is anybody’s guess.
If you check my OP you’ll see that the things I fear are not strictly related to dollarization, privatization of education and health, rollbacks to reproductive rights and marriage equality are the things I fear the most, and those things could pass the legislature.
Not to mentions things that are more in the executive bailiwick, like selling off state enterprises, appointing judges, etc.
The real question with a Milie, or a trump, is not what they will accomplish in their next term via conventional party politics.
It’s what they will accomplish by nefarious means such as packing the courts, suborning law enforcement into a political enforcement mechanism, ruling by executive fiat while daring the other power centers to prevent that, engaging in widespread impunious theft, etc.
It’s not about governing within the system; it’s about destroying the system. Much of the world is discovering that “the system” runs a lot more on goodwill and good intentions than we all had really understood. The bulwarks against bad actors in high places are made more of habit and tissue paper than concrete.
That’s playing with fire. It didn’t work for Republicans who supported Trump, and the reverse - keeping a traditional right winger in power but shifting to appeal to the craziest fanstics - has been disastrous for Netanyahu and Israel.
You can’t control waves of populism, that’s the whole point of populism. It either controls you, or you kill it. Coopting it either makes it control you or delegitimizes the movement you’re trying to tap into.