But you’ve missed my point, that one thing is making an ontological claim about the universe, and the other is not.
If you are about to roll a die, and I say a roll of 1-5 is more likely than a roll of 6, that can (and is) correct whatever you roll. But if I say “I believe you will roll 1-5”, I can be wrong.
Now on the alien thing, sure we don’t know the probability of life existing, so it’s a “belief” either way (though I find belief to be a bit of a loaded term). But only one of those statements makes an ontological claim.
I wouldn’t call that cynicism a belief; not one relevant to this discussion anyway. The fact is, if Timmy asked you do sterile neutrinos exist, yes or no, you’d have to say you don’t know. Right?
No, one thing is making a statement *about my opinion *about an ontological claim - “I think it is…” not “It is…”.
I agree. But the statement wasn’t “It is likely…”, it was “I think it is likely…”
See above
Yes, I would have to. However, If Timmy asked be “Do you believe sterile neurtinos exist” (The OP question) I’d answer “No, I do not” because I recognize those as two different questions. One is, as you say, a true ontological question. The other isn’t really.
The way I see it, Timmy in the OP isn’t asking the question because he wants an answer to a truth of the universe. He’s asking a question to arrive at an insight into his own parent. Completely different spheres of reference.
Cognitive dissonance is only possible if you have conflicting beliefs in the first place - in this case, a spontaneous belief in the truth of a statement vs a belief in the accuracy of having that belief at all.
Agreed. But meanwhile, somewhere in the multiple streams of thought that make up your consciousness, you are going to have an opinion despite yourself. You may have to suppress it, or later change it with better information, etc, but you’re going to have an opinion despite any intentions not to. Human brains are little bias machines - we can’t help but have opinions on everything under the sun. I’m not saying this is a desirable state - far from it, withholding judgement until more information is in would be ideal -but it’s how we actually are.
Yes but your original point was that the statements “I think it is likely that aliens exist” and “I believe that aliens exist” are effectively saying the same thing. They are not.
Well at this point then it comes down to semantics and exactly what meaning of belief was intended. Personally I would prefer to clarify with Timmy (who I named btw, just cos), as the OP has tried to.
It won’t make any practical difference in this case, but in general if you tell someone you don’t believe X, they may well interpret that as you think X is unlikely and you would be surprised if X. Not just that you lack a belief in X.
I wonder if this is just a lead up to a joke? It would explain his unwillingness to accept “I don’t know” or “maybe” or any rewording of the questoion.
It makes a huge difference, and appears to be what MrDibble doesn’t get. Your wording encapsulates the difference between “I think X is more likely” and “I believe X.” Take the example given earlier in this thread about whether it will rain in my neighborhood tomorrow. Say I go look at the forecast and see that there’s a 60% chance. I would be correct in saying “Rain is more likely,” but I would not say “I believe it will rain.” Those two statements have different meanings.
A lot of people in this thread keep on trying to make this into a bet, claiming you have to choose. But they neglect to understand that I can choose not to make a bet at all. I would not bet on whether it will rain tomorrow. I do not have a belief one way or the other, because, as you put it, I would not be surprised, one way or the other.
Initial judgements and beliefs are just not the same thing.
I do not have a belief one way or the other, while I would estimate that it is more likely that they will win than any other team, given the strength of their team, their Group draw, and the fact that the WC is in Brazil, it would be inappropriate for me to identify a particular outcome. The outcome is uncertain, and I wouldn’t want to suggest otherwise.
You know, I’m just making conversation here, you’re not testifying before Congress.
I took a card and put it in a shoebox, taped it shut, showed it to the kidlet and asked him if the card said banana on it. He refused to discuss the matter at hand, only wanting to know why I was asking him such a ridiculous question. So I told him it was related to the alien question and tried to re-direct the conversation. That earned me a “you know, Mommy, this isn’t going to help you with the alien thing.” He got all excitable and just insisted on knowing what was in the shoebox. So I went into the bathroom, opened the box, tore up the card, and flushed it down the toilet, and managed to close the toilet lid and sit on it before he caught me. When I stopped laughing, I came out of the bathroom and found him melodramatically sprawled under the coffee table, moaning that he would never know if the card said banana. So I told him the truth–that the card was blank. Then he said that the shoebox had nothing to do with anything and that the alien thing really was a yes or no question, and continued bugging me about it for at least 3 minutes. When I refused to yield, he stole my phone and hid it somewhere. I feigned disinterest in my missing phone, so he immediately returned it and told me that he had hidden it in a box of breadcrumbs in the pantry. Then he went to bed.
ETA: My new name is Mommy-Who-Flushed-The-Evidence.
Does he understand the “have you stopped beating your wife? yes or no” concept? It’s not exactly the same situation but it’s the same case of a false dichotomy.
Agree with those who suggest asking why he thinks this is yes or no and why it’s important. Maybe he’s seen a YouTube video that’s convincing, maybe he heard of (or had) an episode of sleep paralysis that sounded like an alien abduction attempt.
I’d also suggest the “levels of the question” tactic - do you believe anyone has ever met an alien or been abducted by one? (no), do you believe anyone has ever seen an alien spacecraft? (no), do you believe there is life in our solar system (probably not), do you believe there is intelligent life out there somewhere, do you believe we’ll ever find life, do you believe there could be some kind of life in the entirety of the universe.
Don’t let him get your goat. Your answer is the correct one. Don’t let him goad you into making a choice. He’s doing all the work begging an answer, let him tire of it.
It’s a teaching moment. Stick to your guns!
It is NOT a yes or no question. His saying that it is doesn’t make it one.
“The possibility that we are alone in the universe is so unlikely that it is not worth considering.” said several billion people from the universe’s first civilization.
