Idea for what the Great Filter could be

“The Great Filter” is a concept related to the Fermi Paradox: that since we do not observe exponentially expanding interstellar civilization, there must be some bottleneck that makes the development of such a civilization vanishingly rare. Of great concern to us as a newly technological civilization on the verge of expansion into space is whether this putative “Great Filter” is one we’ve already passed or have yet to face. Various candidates for the bottleneck are planets with suitable conditions, abiogenesis, multicellular life, intelligence, technological civilization, or avoiding various self-inflicted catastrophes.

I had an idea for what this Great Filter could be that afaik no one has proposed before. I was wondering if there’s something I’m overlooking or if the idea has merit. My idea is that the Great Filter is:

The development of fire.

Now most people think that fire is a pretty straightforward advance: humanity’s ancestors discovered it before they could do much more than make sharp rocks. But here’s what occurred to me: what if wood isn’t as universal a development as we’d presumed? Fire is so central to human existence, and wood so essential to primitive fire, that we take it for granted. But is this a bias on our part?

Land plants on Earth use cellulose- a polymer of sugar- as their main structural element. Combined with oils and resins to make wood, this forms a mixture that’s flammable in an oxygen atmosphere. But what if cellulose is a biochemical fluke? What if on most planets with life the sessile photosynthesizers do what animals on Earth do for rigidity: use either proteins like chitin or keratin, or else minerals like calcium carbonate? Which burn poorly if at all.

Not only is wood flammable, but biochemically it’s tough to break down again; dead dry wood can accumulate in quantity rather than being immediately eaten. And coal is a fossil fuel primarily derived from wood. Very little on Earth can compare to this; kerogen and petroleum are distant seconds only rarely found at the Earth’s surface.

Without a ubiquitous source of fuel, would any intelligent tool-using species develop an advanced civilization? Without fire you cannot smelt metal, fire clay, produce primitive lighting, or a host of other things. Even if in theory these aliens could make fire using fats or oils as in lamps, would the very idea ever occur to anyone if wildfire wasn’t a common phenomenon?

Could this be the Great Filter?

Wood fires are not the only type of heat. There are many much more common types including lava that exists on many known planets.

I think it is much simpler than that. I believe that there is other life in the universe but space-time is just unimaginably big. Combine that with C (otherwise known as the Speed of Light or the speed limit of the universe) and we have a serious theoretical and technical problem. Even if we knew for a fact that there were advanced civilizations 100 light-years away, there is still no known way to communicate bi-directionally in any reasonable amount of time. A single back and forth message would take many generations.

Low level signals are extremely difficult to receive even at short distances in galactic terms even if we knew what to look for (we don’t at least not yet). Travel at significant fractions of C presents some unusual and possibly insurmountable issues as well. A single dust particle could destroy an entire craft travelling at a significant fraction of the speed of light.

That doesn’t mean that we won’t receive an alien signal tomorrow but we wouldn’t have any way to respond in a reasonable time if we did. The only way to have direct contact is for them to visit us possibly after they were already in route for centuries and you have to wonder why anyone would want to do that. Bonfires from alien cave-men aren’t going to cut it. They would be long dead before we even detected them if we could even do it at all.

My immediate reaction is that if there really is just one Great Filter, it probably must be something more general, since intelligent life could take many forms. How does the absence of fire present a barrier to an intelligent aquatic civilization? Or do you claim that an aquatic civilization is not possible, that fire is the sine qua non for the development of any advanced technological society?

All else being equal, everything sentient species do is ultra-fast.
So if it takes Klingons 10,000 times as long to discover fire as it did us, that’s still a negligible blip set against the age of the universe.

Of course the all else being equal is significant. Maybe other species aren’t as smart as us – the runaway increase in intelligence that genus Homo experienced may be a freak event. That may be the case, but that would be a different Great Filter.

Sure, but the paradox isn’t as simple to deal with as that.

Even with existing propulsion technology, humans could probably put a probe around every planet and moon within mere 10s of millions of years. Where are they?

Wood fire has the convenience of being easily created and controlled, though, as opposed to things like lava. In terms of a generally useful, portable, quick and widespread source of energy, it’s really pretty much unrivalled. Add to this the fact that coal is basically the source of energy powering the industrial revolution, so even if one can get around the problem of having nothing directly flammable around, the absence of a ready-made high-yield easy-access source of energy such as coal could make the jump to an advanced civilization more difficult.

So two questions spring to mind: How essential is fire to jump-start a civilization? Can one come up with a plausible route to developing basic technology that doesn’t rely on fire? Is something like an advanced aquatic civilization possible?

Second, how universal is the evolutionary strategy used by plants? It seems that the downside of being flammable—mostly, burning to the ground every so often—doesn’t outweigh the advantages of a plant’s cellular composition, or that no feasible alternative exists within reach. So it might be that we ought to expect analogous strategies in environments sufficiently similar to our own.

I think a woodless civilization will discover buoyant gases like methane, and once they’re in widespread use, combustion.

We have fire but we’re not capable of exponentially expanding interstellar civilization ourselves.

Fire might well be rare, but it’s probably not because of a lack of fuel. Much more likely, it’s a lack of oxidizer. We take oxygen as much for granted as the air we breathe, but it’s really quite remarkable. Plants produce it, but why? It costs a lot of energy to produce elemental oxygen, and then they just release it into the air. Now, plants do have a need to store energy in some chemical form, and this method makes sense in an environment where atmospheric oxygen is already abundant, but how would it have made sense for the first photosynthesizers? Back then, any oxygen you released into the air was just gone, and you weren’t getting it back, which makes it really hard to metabolize the sugars you also produced. So what’s the advantage of photosynthesis?

This has more fundamental ramifications than fire, too. Without photosynthesis, energy is a lot scarcer for heterotrophs, too, which would probably slow down evolution by orders of magnitude.

I also take the issue with the SoL as that filter, once exceeded the whole radio communication system may be obsolete overnight, as if you can travel faster than the SoL there also de facto exists a way of communication faster than light. (At the very least a person taking your message in their FTL starship). If they are out there, the possible reason that we don’t pick up their communications is they have shifted away from radio to this new form. And that works for them also in a prime directive sense, they can study us and exist in a way that doesn’t interfere with us, or they can guide our development without revealing themselves even we may be superseded by them.

As for fire, we as biological systems work by oxidizing things, our food will burn if we can get the water out of it, fat stores can burn. We need stuff that can burn for energy for our biologic system to have energy, so perhaps not wood, but something will as it is needed as we know life - perhaps some extremophiles don’t need this IDK.

But again I’ve heard a science fiction audio book where the author states if intelligent civilization building life starts in the water (which also makes fire very difficult), that civilization will not be able to be spaceborne. He also goes on to a planet only has enough easy to get natural resources to support one attempt at a civilization to become spaceborne, as too much easily accessible stuff will be gone and the next intelligent species will not have enough to get started. Not sure if I accept that second premise as planets can and do renew their surface over time, but perhaps the internal heat of a planet will cool to prevent this.

This is a VERY long YouTube video from one of the guys I follow, Isaac Arthur on his channel. But it goes into a lot of detail in the first 15 minutes on things he thinks could be great filters and then goes on to discuss the Fermi Paradox fairly extensively.
Anyway, as for the OP:

I think fire would be one of the developments necessary to any advanced civilization. I suppose if you had a water world then perhaps the intelligent life there might eventually figure out a way to use underwater thermals to create technology, but I do think it’s going to be very, very difficult. That said, it’s hard to imagine a world that could potentially have a shot at an intelligent species not having something that would burn (or an environment where stuff COULD burn), even if they don’t have similar plants that have something like wood. So, in a sense it could be a Great Filter, since you just aren’t going to get an advanced intelligent life form without some means to have fire.

If that was too long, in a nutshell, here is a neat short video from the guys at Kurzgesagt.

The Fermi Paradox II — Solutions and Ideas – Where Are All The Aliens?

Yet! If fire is indeed the Great Filter, then we’ve still got a shot at telling relativity to suck it.

Perhaps. I think SoL is the best proponent for a filter. Yes, we landed on the moon and harnessed the atom but SoL may be a tougher nut to crack that keeps us and everyone else from finding out about each other. Self-repairing space ships operating at light speed may one day cross the great void, they may even be out there now, but it could be centuries before they arrive here, if they are heading this way at all.

Perhaps the real problem is having only one yardstick. And –in this case- our yardstick is a mirror.

At the biochemical level photosynthesis is a way of obtaining hydrogen, which some anaerobic organisms do by other chemical pathways (reduce hydrogen sulfide for example). Long metabolic chain omitted, the hydrogen is added to carbon dioxide to produce carbohydrates- sugars mostly, which can polymerize either into starch or cellulose, or be anaerobically metabolized for energy into alcohols or organic acids. Naturally fire is not going to be possible without free oxygen, but my question was whether wood might be unique to Earth plant life.

Hey, a fellow Isaac Arthur fan! I was actually thinking of starting a thread asking if anyone else followed his stuff.

The video linked is the one that first got me into his channel.

This is actually fairly close to an idea David Brin (sf writer and actual scientist) has been posting: it may be that most habitable worlds are water-worlds, with little or no dry land. This would make fire (as we know it) very difficult, and the inhabitants of such worlds, while they might be as sapient as we are (poor bastards) they won’t have access to high-tech stuff like glass and metals.

The earth is at the sharp inner edge of our habitable zone, and we can arguably be said to be a “desert world,” with lots of land and not so much water.

This. I think the most likely reason that “we do not observe exponentially expanding interstellar civilization” is that there would have to be an extremely unlikely chance encounter in an unimaginably large four-dimensional spacetime in order for us to observe anything at all.

Indeed. There is the often implicit assumption that an extraterrestrial intelligent species will be much like us, not only in form but thought and motivation, a notion reinforced by portrayals of aliens in film and television that are essentially humans with bumpy prosthetics and skin markings. The reality is that intelligent alien live will have evolved under conditions and environmental pressures that are likely very different from our evolutionary path and will be so dramatially different we might not even recognize them as being intelligent and vice versa. Even our most fundamental methods of interaction, such as using relationships between positive integers, may not correspond to the methods they use to quantify their experience, and it is likely to the point of certainty that their language or analogue thereof will be far more different than just word substitution and a differing relationship of grammar.

The assumption of fire being a necessary technology in the evolutionary chain seems obvious because of how critical it is for us, but there are any of a vast number of other paths to extracting energy from the environment. An aquatic species might evolve the means to secrete enzymes which would act directly on minerals to extract and refine metals or produce complex substances. Or a species might eschew the need for metallic alloys entirely, instead favoring allotropes of carbon as their basic structural material and conductor (as we likely will in the foreseeable future). Or there could be any number of other paths within the constraints of physics and chemistry which would allow some kind of industrial civilization arise and travel beyond its world. There is absolutely no reason to believe that the paths we’ve followed is unique or even particularly optimal.

The other issue about the Fermi Paradox and need for a so-called “Great Filter” was noted by Shagnasty; space is so vast that there could be tens of thousands of technological society scattered throughout our galaxy alone and we may never detect a signal that was not deliberately directed at us. The greatest distance that the most powerful radio signals humanity has ever produced (somewhat ironically from ballistic missile early warning systems) could be observed only out to less than 200 light years even with very powerful antenna, and over longer distances even focused coherent signals will be absorbed by the interstellar medium, notwithstanding the duration it takes for them to travel and the intervening movement of stars within the galaxy. To have a hope of detecting and communicating with an alien species using conventional radio or optical means they’d have to be within a few tens of light years of Earth, and there are few enough stars in that region that fit the conditionswhich we currently believe support habitability (although, again, we shoudln’t allow our limited imagination restrict what totally alien life might be like or where it could develop; any location with excess radiant energy has the potential to support some kind of thermodynamically self-regulating and self-reproducing system that we could consider to be alive).

Even if we posit that life is a common occurrence within the local region around our solar system, we have to come to terms with the fact that the odds of it arising in parallel with our own is dramatically unlikely. Our planet has been around for about 4.5 Byr, and life likely formed a few hundred million years after, and yet it took until the last few million years for a tool making species to start to expand conquer regions beyond its native environment, only tens of thousands since we’ve developed the technologies to transform ourselves to be somewhat independent of the natural ebb and flow of the ecosystem, and only the last couple hundred until we could be said to have started to have a grasp on understanding and controlling even one of the fundamental forces of nature. In that time, numerous technological species could have risen and fallen or transformed into something beyond what we conceive as existance, and in the case of the latter they may regard us of having less intelligence than we do of ants. And frankly, any sophisticated species capable of communicating or travelling over interstellar distances won’t be using radio or light to communicate; they’d likely use coherent gravity waves which can travel cosmic distances unimpeded and without losing much fidelity, or something even more exotic, which we currently have no way to even detect much less decode. Such means of communication would require the command of enormous energy and detection methods so fine that they are not only beyond our technological grasp for the foreseeable future, we don’t even know how they could be workable, but the basic physics makes them plausible regardless.

If and when we meet an advanced alien species the interaction will probably be akin to that portrayed in 2001: A Space Odyssey, i.e. completely incomprehensible to us, and beyond our means to control or escape. Such a disparity in technology would likely not go well for us if they mean us harm or even if they are just indifferent to our own survival, and so if there is truly a “great filter” it is likely that the earlier species to advance technologically and explore the stars may reflexively squash others who may rise to compete with or threaten them. Or, due to a terrible miscalculation of scale the entire battle fleet may have been accidentally swallowed by a small dog. Some experts believe that this may be occurring all the time, and we are powerless to stop it.

“It’s just life,” they say.

(Apologies to the late Douglas Adams for shamelessly cribbing one of his best jokes.)

Stranger

All ignoring the point I made upthread.

Yes space is big but it’s also very old.
And it’s not necessarily a matter of bumping into another species, or catching their message in a bottle. There are countless things we can conceive of right now that a species in our galaxy could do that would be visible to everyone in our galaxy, quite within the confines of SoL. Seeding the galaxy with probes, building various megastructures etc. And who knows how many things we haven’t thought of but would also be visible.

In itself, the space is big thing doesn’t work as a great filter. Indeed, most descriptions of the Fermi Paradox begin with explaining why the unimaginable vastness of space, and SoL constraint, do not in themselves explain the lack of evidence of ETs.

Bumpy headed aliens are indeed a cliche, but so now is “They’ll be so different, we may not even recognize them as intelligent!”

If we’re talking about the set of species that are capable of interstellar travel, one thing which they’ll have in common is a generalized intelligence able to solve complex abstract problems wholly unlike those encountered in their natural environment. Otherwise they would never be able to make such technology.

To such a species, recognizing that a species is trying to communicate and then decoding their language belongs to the set of Easy Problems. Far simpler than the messy problems that nature serves up.