When you do, and when you can tell us what your position is WRT to theta, then let me know. We will be able to debate it.

No, nothing at all like peak oil.

Peak oil means, at least, that there will be a plateua in oil production. In this scenario oil production continues to increase for the next 30 years.

The difference is not “made up for in alternative/advanced (more expensive) hydrocarbons”. The difference is made up for in alternative *oil*. Oil that is not any more expensive than liquid crude.

How is a scenario in which oil production rises indefinitely in any *way *like a peak oil scenario?

What is your evidence for this?

Yeah, it is. No reputable organisation makes such a claim. The IEA says that $113 is the highest it will reach in the foreseeable future.

All sorts of things “change the arithmetic” That is such a meaningless term that it can’t fail to be true. The internet “changed the arithmetic”, the railways "“changed the arithmetic”, spaceflight "“changed the arithmetic”, nuclear weapons “changed the arithmetic”, Spet 11 “changed the arithmetic”, birth control pills "“changed the arithmetic”.

As you can see, all sorts of things have “changed the arithmetic”. None of them led to societal collapse, or even transformed society at any greater rate than it was already changing.

“Changing the arithmetic” doesn’t lead to social collapse. It doesn’t even lead to gross societal change. “Changing the arithmetic” leads to changes that are unpredictable, though minimal in the overall scheme of things and, most importantly, of gradual onset. Changes brought about by “changing the arithmetic” are almost never significant and certainly nothing that will overshadow other late 20th century economic changes.