I think you might mostly be measuring that colder areas tend to have more economic development, and can run more tests.
The New York numbers now include all people who weren’t tested but “presumed” to have died from covid-19. I am not sure I’d be comfortable calculating the fatalities rate from it atm.
Billion not million.
Wanted to add, that’s not really my biggest caution about extrapolating NYC numbers to figure the fatality rate. A big crowded city that has its healthcare system overloaded is going to have higher fatalities. That’s the whole reason for that flatten the curve thing. Most jurisdictions seem to be keeping within capacity which should produce a much more positve recovery rates.
I believe that “presumed” covers people who presented with symptoms but did not get tested. It does not cover a number of other deaths above the baseline that were not tested.
Cite. See the chart that shows that while deaths attributed to covid-19 were ~3000 in the month ending April 4, there were an additional 2000 deaths above baseline. My claim of undercounting by a factor of 2-3 was based on a chart I saw on twitter that I can’t find right now that was more recent data, but maybe that’s too much.
It’s likely true that some of those deaths are from general health system being overwhelmed, but also some of them are probably people who had covid-19 and didn’t seek treatment.
The data are noisy, and my estimates could easily be wrong, but you have to really torture the data to come up with a 0.1 to 0.2% infection fatality rate. South Korea has done extensive testing to find cases, even asymptomatic and presymptomatic ones, and their health system has not been overwhelmed, and their case fatality rate is about 1%.
This is what I’m wondering as well. What if it takes 3 or 5 years for a vaccine? Will we not have any mass sporting events, concerts, or large weddings for that long?
I expect a cruelly Darwinian process. Locales that open up early and allow crowds will suffer spikes of morbidity and mortality. That assumes event organizers will risk liability. Crowd events were canceled before lockdowns were ordered because too risky. And most people will avoid such viral petri dishes. I suspect a government that ORDERS mass gatherings will not last much longer than the incubation period.
Welcome to the 18th Century.
What, we aren’t gonna have cars?
What would happen is more people would die than would otherwise be the case, but so many people - most, actually - would have been infected by then, the pandemic would have long died down due to herd immunity. Life would go on.
You might as well prepare yourself for this possibility, because it’s quite possible.
You’re saying this would happen much before 12-18 months for a vaccine?
The first paragraph is just plain stupid. The 2nd paragraph is my key point. That’s what they did in the 18th century. And so “preparing myself” for what I already consider a likely outcome is redundant.
Other than that, nice counter-post.
We didn’t have latex gloves in the 18th century let alone anti-virals and ventilators, so your post is pretty dumb regardless.
The fatality rate depends on the circumstances. I wouldn’t be surprised if some degree of herd immunity kicks in at some point to lower the death rate, but for the moment, there isn’t a consistent mortality rate because it mortality varies according to the population where the disease is present and the quality of the health response. South Korea and other countries show what’s possible, but that’s of little consolation to people who live in countries where the health response has been inadequate or in places where the disease has already circulated among the elderly.
Asahi,
Just to point out the obvious yet again- the biggest contributors to the reported case fatality rates are the number of confirmed cases which has at no point in this process been any sort of consistent reflection of true infection rates, and yes the demographics of the infected. Very likely true all population IFR is not so very far apart across the world.
My sense is some significant impact at points of systems getting past peak capacity I am sure but not as big of an impact on the fatality rate than the first two. That gives more of an impact on the sense of horror.
(The exact same 0.2% IFR hitting 50% of a population over 5 weeks versus its occurring over 4 months would be experienced very differently, just as the roughly 3000 who died on 9/11 gave a sense of terror that the same number as gun shot deaths over a month does not.)
The real problem is that it’s impossible to know the death rate without knowing the infection rate, and right now, we really have no idea whatsoever what the infection rate is in the US.
Yes. If no vaccine happens in 12-18 months, the virus will sweep through most of the population and many, many people will die. There is no chance, absolutely none, that a lockdown can last that long.
I don’t think we can go full open, either, because that would also result in many many deaths.
I do think there is room to discuss modifying the rules.
If a non-essential business can come up with a plan to open up while minimizing risk of transmission I’m all for them opening up. Let people get creative with this thing. That would be great.
But lifting all restrictions would be a nightmare, just as a 12 month lockdown would be a nightmare. We really do have to find the least-objectionable middle ground.
There’s a lot of blather about getting the economy started but I think even the big corporate crony politicians are going to be a little cautious in actual deed. I’m sure the scarier worst case scenarios they’re seeing gives even them some pause.
Covid-19 will need to be accepted as just another danger in a dangerous world. There is not going to be a silver bullet vaccine that will eliminate the disease ala small pox. That is never going to come.
The best we can hope for is something like the flu shots many people get each year, that hopes to prevent or lessen the impact. And yet around 18,000 people still die from the flu every year in the US alone. And that is just accepted as a part of life. These deaths aren’t even talked about any longer.
There are certain things, like a flu shot, that will be done to mitigate the infections but Covid-19 is here to stay and that is part of the healing process that people are going to eventually have to accept.
Dreams of the magic of a vaccine eliminating the problem, if we just shut down long enough, are just a fantasy.
Its not the large corporations who are leading the charge to reopen, its mostly small to medium enterprises who are staring bankruptcy in the face.