On the downside you’d essentially be removing a layer of low cost, relatively efficient labor that the economy in many sectors has grown to heavily depend on, on the positive you’d be removing whatever tax drain it costs to provide social services to the population of illegal workers and their families, and (I’m assuming) reduce whatever portion of crime they are responsible for. Would the economy get better or worse if they all left? Would things cost more or less overall? Who would do the backbreaking scutwork and menial jobs they do… at any price?
I cannot find any info specifically addressing the OP.
There is lots of analysis on the economic impact of illegal immigrants however and most of it seems to tend towards it not really being that big of an impact (insofar as they are a drain on US taxpayers).
On the one hand they do use services that are estimated to cost taxpayers around $10 billion/year but on the flipside they allow businesses to exist that employ other tax paying people (e.g. a lawn service may need an accountant and secretary and such) and pay taxes as a business (not to mention the benefits of providing a service). I have not seen an analysis of how this comes out in the wash.
Interestingly I saw a study that said if you legalized all current illegal immigrants the cost to the US would jump from $10 billion to $29 billion/year. While presumably more immigrants would be paying taxes by being legal they tend to be poor so would not pay much anyway and would become eligible for more government services than they take advantage of now.
There’s been a couple good cites on this in other threads (use Search), and more or less the produce prices would increase about 5%. :eek: :rolleyes:
That really about sums it up. Fast food might cost you an extra buck. A new house might cost a few thousand more.
I would trade those costs for solvent local and state governments, decent wages for citizens, reduced crime, enough jail beds to keep serious offenders in jail for the full term, solvent emergency rooms and trauma centers where you could get in to see a doctor in less than nine hours, a halt to the re-emergence of such diseases as tuburculosis and hepatitis, and an end to the underground economy that makes everyone that plays by the rules a bankrupted chump.
Of course if you have a nanny or gardener that you are paying slave wages it might affect you presonally, but you are just scum taking advantage of human desperation to make your life more comfortable, so I really don’t care.
“If all the illegal workers up and left the US what would really happen?”
The businesses who have been hiring them will start smuggling replacements back into the country.
Does anyone have any information on the amount of money that illegal immigrants actually pay in to the system, i.e. income tax and social security, by using counterfeit social security cards. Most of them that do this don’t get anything back in the way of refunds or social security benefits. Do they?
One of the things that I’d think would have to happen is that those businesses employing many current illegals would have to pay decent wages to fill their slots. The idea that there are jobs that no American will do is silly; offer enough money, and you’ll find someone who’ll be happy to do those jobs. Some if these companies, those operating on a very low margin, would probably go out of business.
Of course, this would result in higher prices for consumers, and an even less competitive position with respect to Asian imports than we have now.
[hijack]I’m at a loss on this one. On the one hand, I’d like to see businesses have to pay better than the slave wages they currently pay illegals, even if it does mean that my prices go up. It’s also rather unfair to let current illegals ‘jump to the head of the line’ for green cards, and it rewards law-breaking. On the other hand, I don’t think illegals should be arrested as felons, and lord knows, the conditions back home have to be pretty damned bad for the conditions for them here to be superior. At this point, I don’t know *what * to think![/hijack]
You would see more automation on farms as labor costs increased. That isn’t a new problem.
There’s a huge debate on how much FIT taxes Illegals put in and then file and get back. IF they did use a false SSN for employment then filed with an ITIN (it’s perfectly legal and safe to file for a legit tax refund with an ITIN), then they’d get (in most cases) all or almost all of their withholding back- and if their dependents have a legit SSN, they’d get EITC and more than their witholding back. But some illegals never file as they are scared. So- some file and have their kids here in the USA and get all their witholding back plus a fat refund. Some file and have their kids in Mexico and get all their witholding back. Some file, have their kids in Mexico, but commit EITC fraud and get a fraudulent refund. Some few file, but have no dependents so pay a tiny bit. Some don’t file at all, but got paid “under the table” so didn’t pay in. Some don’t file at all because they are scared and lose what little they paid in. Exactly what is the net effect here is a matter of debate- no one knows. In general poor people don’t pay much Income tax, illegal or no. MY WAG is that the US Gov’t loses (to fraud) about as much as it makes (from scared non-filers).
As for Soc Sec- Illegals can’t collect Soc Sec (some do anyway do to better than average false SSNs). AFAIK, when & if they become "legal’ they get the benefits then of whatever was collected during their “illegal” period.
You might also see some of the jobs follow the people south of the border. There’s no reason why a lot of CA agriculture can’t be done in Mexico.
I think a more realistic question might be how would the economy differ if we never had the illegal worker situation in the first. Any sudden change in the economy like the OP describes isn’t going to be good. I don’t see any reason that the US couldn’t have asjusted to different circumstances had we not be flooded with illegal workers over the years.
What would really happen?
I’d go get a second job picking berries. I’d demand $15 an hour. I’d probably get it.
Sure, why not, that’d be less than they are paying now, so it’d be a bargain.
Strawberry pickers (the bottom of the totem pole in farm labor) can get $150/day.
It’s not the wages, it’s the conditions and the work.
One thing people always seem to forget is that that illegal immigrants pay the same sales taxes everyone else does. You can’t avoid sales tax by being paid under the table.
I dunno, I’ve lived in Colorado all my life, and we’ve had migrant workers in the sugar beet fields since the 1930s. Because of that, Mexican culture has had a huge impact on our society (in addition to the ancient Spanish influence that goes back to the 16th century.) Descendants of those first “braceros” have become economic, political and educational leaders. I can’t imagine how barren our culture would be without them.
More to the point, here in rural Colorado, our Big Macs don’t cost any more than the ones in Denver, where huge numbers of illegal immigrants allegedly work in fast food restaurants. Our fast food restaurants are all staffed by locals, mostly teen-agers, and they don’t seem to have any trouble finding good help. On the other hand, local packing plants (beef and turkey, mostly) are reportedly staffed largely by immigrant labor – but nobody really knows (and nobody is really asking) how much of that is “illegal” labor.
Don’t know if this adds anything to the knowledge base, but there it is.
To be honest, I wish more people held that position, rather than pretending they have THE solution, and ignoring any evidence that shows their solution might not be the best. It’s nice to hear someone say that for a change.
If it’s the money that worries you, I’d like to point out that quite a few pay income taxes legally, as I said in the Pit. To quote myself :
You make a good point, but that 1.2 millions ITINs is 1/10th the number of Illegals. Some of the rest do indeed file using their fake SSNs.
In general, no we are not “exploiting them”. Illegals do pay taxes, of course- but even if all of them paid everyhing they owed, they’d still get more services that they pay in. But that’s true of all low income residents of the USA, Legal, Illegal or even Born here. Hell, the most native of them all- Amerinds, tend (casino tribes aside) to be very low income and get quite a bit of gov’t benefits. So, those who have the most claim of all to this land perhaps get more services as a % of what they pay in than the “wettest wetback*”. :eek:
The problem is so much how much they pay in as opposed to what they pay put- it’s just that there is so damn many of them, and they tend to have large families. I read in todays SF Examiner that Californis population growth is almost entirely caused by recent immigrants- both legal and illegal. It’s not really so much that Illegals are bad for the economy, it’s the fact that that many humans are bad for everything. Traffic, pollution, housing prices, overcrowding in schools, and the list goes on. “*No mas, no mas!”
*
I have met and worked with many illegals. They- in general- have my sincere admiration. They come here to WORK, and work they do- hard, at jobs Americans generally don’t want (although that’s changing). But we just can’t afford that many more people, and like it or not- those that wuz here first get to stay. Thus, that’s why I suuport a stronger Border, no Amnesty, but a liberal Guest worker program. Let them come here to work, but I am afraid only a few can stay. 
Then, we also have to work on getting Mexico to live up the the economic powerhouse it should be, if it wasn’t fettered by rampant government corruption & incompetence. We have to *call out *their Presidente’ every time he blames the gringos for eveything, rather than trying to get something done in his own backyard. I am not a big Bible quoter here, but Matthew7:3 is too apt not to use.
- I apologize if the term offends any, but sometimes strong issues call for stoing language.
What services ? They get emergency medical care and public education for their kids, and that’s it from the government.
There is a difference between “strong” language and ethnic slurs. Partricularly in Great Debates, refrain from using the latter which do nothing to promote discussion and everything to inflame passions.
[ /Moderating ]
They are protected by our Military, drive on our roads, use our heavily subsidized mass transit, use the libraries, and get quite a bit of social services. In fact, other than Social Security- what don’t they get? 