Bill Maher is predicting Trump will win the 2024 election because republicans will take over congress in the upcoming election.
Maybe. But both Clinton and Obama lost Democratic Congressional majorities in their first midterm and were reelected comfortably. Both were able to use a Republican Congress as a foil to contrast their centrism against a radical Republican agenda. Given the potential makeup of a Republican Congress next year, I don’t imagine it will be too difficult to run that playbook again.
The bigger threat to Biden’s reelection probably lies in state-level elections that could give MAGA Republicans in several swing states unfettered control of the electoral process in their states.
Leaving aside the consequences for governance in 2023-2025, losing the Senate in 2022 also means losing it in 2024. Democrats are pretty much maxed out on that map; there aren’t really any realistic pickup opportunities, but there are several seats that will be very difficult to keep with the level of turnout that we see in presidential elections.
Yeah, 2024 is gonna be brutal for Senate Democrats no matter what. As you say, there’s not a single incumbent Republican who’s likely to be seriously challenged, whereas Democrats will defend seats in AZ, MI, MT, NV, OH, PA, WV and WI.
It’s interesting the expectations leading up to an election for the party in power: Republicans: “We can’t lose, and they can’t win” and Democrats: “We can’t win, and they can’t lose”.
On the bright side, if Republicans control both the House and Senate, they’ll own a large percentage of the bad things that happen over the next two years, inhibiting their shot at the Presidency.
If only.
They didn’t “own” anything that happened in the Trump presidency; it was all “the deep state”, the media and China’s fault.
And, in these midterms, a number of Republican incumbants are campaigning with messages of, for example, crime spiralling out of control in their state. Or have been indicted on corruption charges. None of it matters to the modern day republican voter. Who, right now, seem to constitute an electoral-college majority.
Most republicans still believe that the republican party is better at the economy, in spite of all the actual real evidence.
So, there’s that.
This.
Plus, a Republican house/senate will lead to investigations of every Democrat for any reason whatsoever. We’ll see investigations opened up into Benghazi (again). Hunter Biden. Investigations into Obama’s tan suit. Republicans see investigations not as a tool to find out the truth, but rather as a political tool to score points.
Also this.
Some Republicans have already promised that if elected in their state, they will ensure that no Democrat wins any election ever again. They’re saying the quiet part out loud, quite explicitly.
Also: More delays and denials from the Republican congress to do anything smart about systemic racism, climate change, ignorance in schools (Thanks to the CRT boogeyman, Republicans are using that ruse to remove anything that deals with the teaching of history), Worker rights, college debt relief, Immigration (Dreamers will continue dreaming), abortion, health care reform, etc.
A return to the '50’s. The 1850’s
As Plato could say it, most will vote for the candy makers in this election… they will not get the candy either.