The “correct explanation” for what? It’s a universal truth that the “right answer” to a question depends on what the question is! And ISTM that the reason we’re going around in circles on this is that the OP’s simple question has been misinterpreted and over-complicated, despite Herculean efforts by some to answer the original simple question. Let me try one last time.
The OP re-iterates the thread title in the third post thusly:
I have a bucket of water at sea level, and the water is at 1 atm at its surface. I then drop the bucket from some height. Does the air pressure on the water’s surface change?
Now, if we go back to the thread’s original post, the first sentence is (emphasis mine):
My initial thought would be that without the column of air pushing on the surface, it would decrease until it reached some new equilibrium with the terminal velocity of the water bucket.
Clearly (unless I am now the one misunderstanding the question) the OP is wondering whether the downward acceleration of a bucket of water affects the static air pressure exerted by the column of air above it. Not about dynamic pressure. Not about aerodynamic drag. Not about “drafting”.
And the answer, once again, is no – the downward acceleration of the bucket does not affect the static atmospheric air pressure at all – not one bit.
OK, end of story. Now, if we wanted to explore the effects of changing air pressure with altitude, or aerodynamic effects like air resistance, drag, draft, and turbulence, it’s a whole different question and the answer becomes a whole lot more complicated.
I might note, though, per my post #25 that if the bucket was dropped from only a modest height such that its maximum velocity was 30 mph, the aerodynamic pressure at the front (bottom) at that point would be just 0.016 PSI. Calculating the effect of draft on the top surface of the water becomes a complicated matter of fluid dynamics but it would likely be much less than the dynamic pressure at the flat front, so pretty insignificant. But that’s not the question that was asked!
You betcha! 