Re thecurrent newsabout Israel indicating it will unilaterally attack Iran if no sanctions are in place by Christmas 2009, I just wondered what Iran’s military capabilities are WRT responding to an attack by Israel? Does Iran have the capability to reach Israel with missiles or planes?
Aircraft, no. Missiles, maybe.
The main fear is that they’ll respond through one of their proxies, mainly Hizballah in Lebanon, which holds missiles that can reach all the way to Tel Aviv and not-inconsiderable defensive capabilities. Iran may also order attacks on Israeli (and Jewish) interests abroad, and in the worst case scenario, drag its ally Syria into the conflict.
In short, things will get very nasty for some time if fighting breaks out
Is the ability to mount nukes on missiles still years away for Iran?
The ability tohave nukes is something Iran is years away from.
Anyway, I would really love to know what Israel will do (short of using their IRBM). They can do an Orsirak type raid sure, but Irans programme is far more sophisticated and will require a sustained campaign. Something that is definatly beyond Israel’s capability.
The news referred to in the OP is actually a remark by one hawkish ex-deputy minister. How credible is his statement seen to be? Do people think it genuinely reflects current Israeli policy?
Ephraim Sneh is definitely NOT a reliable source for Israeli governmental policy. He has held senior positions in the past, but he split from his own party, ran as an independent, got thoroughly beat, and has since fallen off the political radar screen.
What if the Israeli aircraft attack were a one-way trip? Not a suicide mission, but the pilot flies on after the attack, then ejects, and is met by infiltrated ground forces and they all leave by ground?
Walk nearly 2000 Km across desert, mountains and generally inhospitable terrain? That has to be one of the most brilliant ideas ever.
Combat aircraft are very, very expensive.
Don’t be silly: the infiltrated ground forces would have vehicles and escape to the North or East.
checks map
North and East seem to poor choices
checks map again
So do South and West :smack:
The OP has two questions really. First of all:
Does Iran have the capability to reach Israel with missiles or planes?
You would need to answer this in terms of just equimpment. Yes it does but that doesn’t really answer the question in full.
The planes and missiles could reach Israel but Israel isn’t going to just be hit blindsided. Also to get to Israel, Iran has to go over (US occupied) Iraq and Jordon. Neither is at all going to be happy with this.
The battle, if it came to that would be fought OVER those countries.
There isn’t really much Israel can do poltically without the USA. The reason is, if they act unilaterally, they lose the political goodwill. If that happens then even the Arabs that are happy living in a “cold-peace” with Israel will come out against it.
Isreal doesn’t have a lot of friends, but it has a lot of nations that are fine leaving it as it is, such as Egypt, and Jordan.
You don’t want to turn those nations against you.
Isreal won a lot of praise in hindsight for destroying Iraq’s nuclear program but the world and especially technology is much more advanced than way back in the 80s. An analogy would be, no one would fall for a Trojan Horse today.
Finally remember threats are often as good as war. Look at what it got Hitler, before he made one threat too many. Same for Stalin. And they are good for observations. Supposing Israel threatens Iran. Then the US can observe how Iran is responding to those threats. For example, if Iraq had a secret place to hide things, and Israel threatens, then the advance US technology can see exactly what response Iran is taking and can deduce what Iran has from that
Israel really cannot do an Orsirak-type raid because Iran has placed its missiles deep underground. They learned from the Iraq raid and I don’t believe Israel has the bombs to penetrate deep enough. We, the USA, recently developed a bunker-blaster that could reach the underground missiles. I don’t recall how deep this recently developed bomb can penetrate, but presumably deep enough. So Israel cannot but we can.
So we sell a few of them to Israel, and let them take it from there?
I don’t see any reason why Israel can’t develop their own bunker busters. The idea has been around since WWII and the Israelis make good weapons. But as I understand it, Iran has dispersed their nuclear sites so that it is anywhere from really difficult to impossible to hit them all at once. Iran did this as a lesson learned after Israel bombed the Osirak reactor in Iraq, blowing away Saddam’s eggs and basket in one fell swoop.
To add another twist to the saga, the Wiki article says (but doesn’t cite so take it with a grain of salt) that Iran actually supported the Osirak raid and was prepared to allow injured Israeli aircraft to land in Iran if they couldn’t make it home!
Quite likely. Remember that at that time, Iran & Iraq had just finished a lengthy, bitter little war. So the religious Ayatollahs running Iran had no great love for the secular Saddam Hussein.
Now that both Iran & Iraq are run by similar religious Ayatollahs, Israeli planes would not get such authorization.
Actually, the was was still going on at the time of the raid; Israel bombed the reactor in June 1981, and the Iran-Iraq War lasted from 1980 to 1988.
And interestingly enough, it appears that the Iranians had bombed the reactor themselves less than a year before the Israeli strike.
I agree, that’s a valid rational argument up to a point. The point is that if the choice is between: (a) losing the support of many supposedly neutral countries or (b) survival (or facing an Iranian with a nuclear bomb in a suitcase smuggled into the country) …
Israel has not held to the “turn the other cheek” philosophy, and has in the past employed pre-emptive strikes when they think the risks of waiting are simply too great.
Wow that’s terrible news. Israel really should dial back the paranoia a bit
You have to read the whole thread. It isn’t “Israel” doing this as the OP wrongly alleged, it’s one rogue ex-minister.