[QUOTE=Alessan]
Yeah, that’s about right.
I don’t want a war. However, so long as Hizballah exists it will continue to attack Israel, because they have no other reason to exist. They have no real demands from us, nothing to discuss in any potential peace deal, and nothing we could do to mollify them. The only entity capable of holding them back is Iran.
And Iran, in its turn, sees conflict with Israel as a matter of state policy. Not because they consider armed conflict as an alternative to negotiations, but becasue they need conflict *qua *conflict as a means of achieving their goal of Mideastern dominence. Therefore, any talks of peace conferences, of detant and of compromise are ultimately futile, because other than the utter destruction of Israel - and barring any sort of terminal damage of Iran itself - they won’t find it profitable to stop fighting.
That’s the pan-Middle Eastern war I was talking about. It may just stay a “cold” war, fought largely with proxy forces, but it won’t end so long as the balance of power in the region stays as it is.
In short, what happened last summer will happen again, and again, so long as Hizballah stays in existance and Iran stays ambitious.
[/QUOTE]
Okay. I better understand your POV. But I question some of your assumptions.
Hizbollah exists for many reasons. Power for a few. A sense of rightous purpose in serving the cause of Islamism for others. Animosity towards modernity. Hatred towards Israel is probably low on the list but it serves the cause so very well. Their power is contigent upon having an other to rally people against. You fight that least well by providng the prop any more than you absolutely have to. Look back at the start of the Lebanese fiasco, before Israel did more than a few measured responses. There was real dissent in the Arab ranks. Heads of Arab states were daring to condemn the kidnappings and bombings. World opinion was clearly in Israel’s court. Hizbollah was at a low point in Lebanese public opinion and foreign influences were gradually being pushed out of the country. A snapping response would not have squandered that while still making Hizbollah sting. Without an infidel to unite against they would have been forced to deal with the oppression that they impose upon each other.
Iran? It doesn’t want to destroy Israel. Like Hizbollah it needs Israel like Big Brother needed his Goldberg. It needs the state of never-ending conflict. No question, Israel will need to take a nuclear threat seriously and action may be required. But the reality is that an Iran that gradually enjoins the modern world and develops real influence and broad economic ties is an Iran that needs the distraction of neverending conflict less and one that has more to lose by risking isolation.
The forces of modernity will eventually win in the Arab world. It may take decades but they will prevail and the less the West provides an easily exploitable other to rally against the sooner modernity will succeed. Bibi’s way, like Bush’s way, retards that slow progress. That way has no hope. It ensures that Iran remains a country bent on regional influence by conflict qua conflict and that Hizbollah remains a regional force bent on harming Israel. It offers no chance of providng security.
To be sure there is much to be pessimistic about and my “snapping turtle” “pipe dream” has little likelihood of showing results on a timescale of a few years or less. But it has “every reason for not failing” over a longer timecourse. And a slim chance is infinitely better than none at all.
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