On this issue, we haven’t had a decent progressive with a mouth on them in eons.
I wish to hell someone would start talking about the fundamental immorality of interfering with women’s authority to be in charge of their own reproductive capacities and why sexual equality is fundamentally dependent on women not being stuck with an unwanted pregnancy any time that birth control misfires.
I don’t want the status quo. I don’t want the status quo ante of pre-Casey. I want to see a widespread sentiment that an individual pregnant woman is the best judge of whether or not she should get an abortion, give birth to a baby and raise it, give birth and give it up for adoption, or whatever, and that no one else can step in at any point and interfere in that, nor can anyone providing medical or social assistance be targeted by laws in such a way that makes it difficult for her to exercise that right.
My expectation (and I could certainly be wrong; predictions are hard) is that if Roe is overturned, there will be a flurry of very restrictive laws passed, an electoral backlash, and by 10 years out, in 40+ states you’ll end up with laws that are approximately as restrictive as the Roe standard (maybe +/- 4 weeks in either direction, and in the remainder there will be more restrictive laws. The states with the most restrictive laws will be the most conservative and least populous. 95% of the US population will live with basically very similar restrictions to what they have right now.
That’s obviously bad for the 5%, and not really my desired policy outcome, but it still is quite a lot like the current situation. I’d extremely surprised if 10 years out the national situation looks more like a national abortion ban than more like the status quo ante.
I am aware. And my prediction is that that will be the first-order effect, and then there will be a lot of legislative upheaval, and the eventual result will be the thing I said. Definitely not great for a bit, and probably slightly worse than the status quo for a minority in the medium-term. But not the worst-case scenario many are envisioning.
Indeed, if your prediction comes to pass (and I agree that it is a reasonable one to make), we may eventually get the filibuster proof democratic majority in the senate that would manage to actually pass their legislative agenda. It wouldn’t just be abortion rights that are passed into law.
I agree it may not have the result in voting many expect. Because of the widespread availability of other methods of birth control fewer young women and suburban women have had situations where abortion was a necessity.
Of course, outlaw The Pill like Rick Santorum and others have advocated and the uproar would put the GOP in the minority for at least a decade.
I think it would be hard to outlaw the use of contraceptives.
However, I see no reason why they will not outlaw the sale or prescription of contraceptives within the state.
Having to drive to another state in order to get an abortion is one thing. Having to drive to another state every time to pick up condoms or to get a refill of birth control pills will be a whole nother level.