If society collapses is gold really going to be that valuable?

[septimus]

I’m no goldbug, and I despise the idiocracy (“The Kenyans who want to give your kids autism are the same ones printing your banknotes”) rampant in the U.S.A.

However I think those worried that gold might lose most of its value are wrong. Can anyone point to an historic example of a society where gold had little value? (Never mind islands unacquainted with the metal. And never mind that iron was more valuable than gold before ca 1300 BC.)

I do agree that in a scenario with very severe collapse, being well-armed would be a much bigger concern than worry about one’s gold losing value.

[msmith537]

@septimus

However I think those worried that gold might lose most of its value are wrong. Can anyone point to an historic example of a society where gold had little value? (Never mind islands unacquainted with the metal. And never mind that iron was more valuable than gold before ca 1300 BC.)

Well the price just dropped a few days ago:

'Armageddon' Trade Is Off as Gold Price Tumbles

If you want to buy gold as a hedge against a short to medium term economic crisis as part of a greater investment and wealth preservation strategy, that is rational. If you want to buy gold as a hedge against the end of civilization as we know it, that’s a bit paranoid.

[AK84]

So what comes before gold? That old reliable;sex?

[NeonMadman]

@msmith537

Do we even have a model for what the collapse of a modern democracy would look like?

Not yet, but give it a few more years.

[Shodan]

@msmith537

Do we even have a model for what the collapse of a modern democracy would look like?

Weimar Germany, perhaps? Gold was worth a lot more than useless paper currency.

Regards,
Shodan

[Learjeff]

@Roderick_Femm

That’s why you have silver coins as well as gold, for smaller transactions. The gold is intended as a larger store of value. Believe me, people will figure out how to make change (there are also smaller gold coins, not everything has to be one ounce).

My take on this question is this: for anything higher than utter subsistence existence, there will always be people who value gold and silver, and will trade goods for it. That’s how they came to be used as money in the first place.

I’m sure even hunter-gatherers want some gold. Shiney, pretty!

I remember reading an article in Money (back when I thought I had some, late 90’s) about how to invest a $1M windfall, and they had several contributors, mostly saying the same stuff about asset class management blah blah. Peter Lynch’s article was the best. He said to do the usual stuff with most of it, but if you want a hedge against disaster, take a tiny fraction (IIRC, $10K) and convert it to silver coins, low grade, in dimes, quarters, half-dollars and dollars. Bury it somewhere safe but reachable.

He mentioned that some folks hedge against disaster by investing in diamonds. The problem is, nobody will know what a diamond is worth or even if it’s real, and you’re more likely to need a lot of small transactions than a few big ones.

But everyone will have some idea of the value of a silver dime or dollar. Just don’t carry more than you can afford to lose!

If I were preparing for disaster, I’d get gold coins (like krugerrands) and old US silver. But I bet that lead and brass would also be handy to have in stock!

[msmith537]

@NeonMadman

Not yet, but give it a few more years.

I don’t see that happening anytime soon.

[Voyager]

@kopek

Come total collapse, I prefer lead and brass. With the proper application of those in the proper calibers, I can get all the gold and damn near anything else I want.

Yeah. And people with the guns are going to go after the people with the gold, not the people like me with lots of books.

[JohnT]

@Shodan

Weimar Germany, perhaps? Gold was worth a lot more than useless paper currency.

Regards,
Shodan

So were US dollars, French francs, and British pounds.

Gold, like fiat money, only has value when people agree it has value. As mentioned earlier, in a “collapsed civilization” scenario only things with utilitarian value will have true value. You may get somebody to trade their gold for your chickens, but in a month they’ll have eggs while you still have inedible metal.

The collapse of civilization is an extremely unlikely event - it’s just too widespread nowadays and the cause would have to be a disaster of Biblical proportions: asteroids, super-volcanoes, alien death rays.

[Magiver]

Gold would be the trading standard on foreign markets. The problem is that if the United States implodes economically it’s taking a bunch of countries with it. The world economies on average are already heavily extended (financially).

[aruvqan]

@Learjeff

Peter Lynch’s article was the best. He said to do the usual stuff with most of it, but if you want a hedge against disaster, take a tiny fraction (IIRC, $10K) and convert it to silver coins, low grade, in dimes, quarters, half-dollars and dollars. Bury it somewhere safe but reachable.

If I were preparing for disaster, I’d get gold coins (like krugerrands) and old US silver. But I bet that lead and brass would also be handy to have in stock!

There are digs in Northern Europe with what was originally jewelry with bits chopped off, and small bits of what was once jewelry, and chains and links - all the bits and bobs were being used as money. I believe you can still get Baht jewelry in Thailand [a wrist bangle that is 1 baht worth of gold, 2 baht worth and so forth. Talk about your portable wealth ] <found a commercial ebay link, I am not connected in any way, just googled for an explanation of baht jewelry>

Hm, if you are certain you are going to stay in one place, stocks of different useful metals in ingot form ready for casting and forging might be useful.