If the housing crisis doesn't destroy us all, the entitlements crash will.

Great Debates
#1

It’s a good time to scare people economically. And I do mean that, because it’s a lot more likely people will at least listen to what you have to say.

I have no idea of who this guy is or what interests he serves. But I thought his scenarios deserved airing, especially in light of my other thread and the interesting replies therein.

Any thoughts on what this guy is laying out? Even if you can’t disagree with the coming need to dismantle the entitlements system entirely (some people here fear that the whole financial crisis is an excuse to do just that), what do you think of his projection of the consequences?

#2

Even a superficial reading is enough to get an idea of where this guy is coming from. He’s predicting that in 2012 VP Palin will defeat “an aging and bitter Hillary Clinton.” We’re dealing with a crusading anti-social programs Republican. As such, his “facts” deserve some investigation and (surprise surprise!) they aren’t what they seem.

Here’s the letter the CBO sent to the Republican asking for the study:
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/92xx/doc9216/Letter-to-Ryan.1.1.shtml

Here’s a chart of the Alternative Fiscal Scenario that is mentioned:
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/88xx/doc8877/Chapter5.8.1.shtml#1069070

It’s a hatchet job. The Congressman carefully requested his study to produce the most alarming statistics. The 150% tax increase is based on the assumption that we don’t let the Bush Tax Cuts expire and we index the AMT to inflation- thus further lowering revenue. And from this low revenue estimate he asks to fix the budget hole only by raising personal income taxes. If we apply a more sensible tax plan to the problem it’s more easily managed, of course.

Just my 2sense

#3

Aha, thanks. I didn’t see him write that.

Of course, even if I had, that wouldn’t necessarily mean the numbers he presented were inaccurate. But thanks for the additional info.