Let’s say the Chiefs were willing to trade down in the 1st round, and a team made the following offer:
1)Our #1
2)Our Day 3 picks (5-7 IIRC)
3)Our 3rd string QB (or whatever position the projected pick plays)
How far down should KC be willing to move?
Off the top of my head, only a pick or two.
Checking the NFL trade value chart, 5-7 rounders plus a 3rd stringer is not even enough to move up from #2 to #1 in the draft.
It also depends on what position they intend to draft. If you are looking to pick up a QB in round 1 you can drop further than if you need to draft the replacement for Branden Albert.
Draft value charts are nice and all, but I’d be willing to move down more than a couple spots this year if I got picks out of it. Those can be traded elsewhere, maybe even for better picks in future years.
This year’s draft looks to be short on quality QBs at the top of the draft. The buzz is there’ll be more front 7 defensive players taken in the first round than anything else. If so, it massively devalues the top few picks. KC could use some defenders, but there don’t look to be too many “must have” guys that you can’t find a replacement lower down.
And with that kind of pick, why take the 3rd string QB at all. No 3rd string players at other position groups are worth anything in trade at all and neither Ricky Stanzi nor Alex Tanney inspire confidence as QB projects worth trading for. Definitely “thanks but no thanks”.
Yeah, nobody is going to trade with the Chiefs. They picked the wrong year to suck. This draft is loaded, but it’s deep, not top-heavy. There’s probably only about 20 guys with first round grades - none of them quarterbacks - but there might be another 80 guys with second and third round grades. Everyone is gonna want, like, three second round picks this year, but nobody is gonna want to pick number 1.
I think any trade would have to include not just this year’s, but also next year’s first round pick, and more than a few others. I can’t imagine the Chiefs trading out of #1 for little more scrub picks and a third string QB.
But even if the price is right, there isn’t a consensus stud out there. Luke Joeckel is all well and good, but Jake Long, the last LT taken #1, still hasn’t been resigned by Miami after his rookie contract was up, so I’m not sure they’re that sold on the position. Geno Smith isn’t NFL ready, and there is no one up there that makes me drool like Andrew Luck and RGIII did last year or Von Miller the year before. I don’t see the ungodly talent that would make a team want to trade up this year.
I wouldn’t move out of the top slot for day 3 picks unless you know you want some guy and the teams that will draft ahead of you aren’t going to take him.
If everyone at the top is grouped together because there aren’t any standout players, the only reasonable thing is to move down. Who cares if someone takes your guy when everyone at that tier is the same?
On the other side, this year would be the cheapest year ever to move up into the top 5. There’s incentive to move up and incentive to move down.
KC fans can be sure that Andy Reid has his eyes on the next Mike Mamula
As others have noted, there are a lot of very good players in this draft, even a few potentially great ones… but there’s NOBODY that teams are going to trade a bunch of players and draft picks to get. This looks like a good year for offensive and defensive linemen, but teams VERY rarely trade up to get linemen.
Normally, teams will only do that to get a guy who’s perceived as a franchise quarterback. But there really isn’t a franchise quarterback in the draft this year- just a few decent prospects like Geno Smith and Matt Barkley.
So, the Chiefs will just have to take the best guy they can at #1. I keep hearing they’ll go for one of Texas A & M’s big offensive linemen- probably Luke Joeckel. Maybe then they can pick up a decent starting quarterback (Alex Smith?) somewhere else.
Joeckel looks very good, and might even be a perennial all-Pro. But I don’t expect him to excite KC fans.
Chefs fan checking in here. Yeah - this is the least exciting draft class in the history of drafts. I expect our tradition of not drafting QBs to continue (last QB we drafted to win a game for KC? Todd Blackledge in 1983), as I’d be perfectly happy with an Alex Smith placeholder until we can make a shot at someone with real potential in the draft. Build a better O-Line, draft for longevity, and don’t make any reaches. Plan on sucking hard again next year, and try again. KC fans are already pretty pissed at terrible trades (see: Royals trading Wil Myers and half the farm for James Shields and Wade Davis) - we know offensive linemen are important, just go get some value.
Emphasis mine.
So, if the Griefs can’t even pick a good year to suck, what kind of hope does that give us for their draft pick abilities?