The Turkish military is apparently crossing the border into Kurdish Iraq as I type this. It is feared by some they might take this opportunity to crush the Kurdish separatists fomenting to form their own ethnic state, and engage them in battle. Will the Turks really try something this disruptive? What would/could we do in this case?
IMHO the Turks will act in their own interests, using the same doctrine of pre-emption currently in vogue.
The US will need to divert sufficient resources to protect the Kurdish homeland from incursion. Then, at the end of this enterprise, the US is going to have to get the Kurds to accept a manner of regional autonomy within Iraq, possibly along the lines of the Basque movement in Spain, and deny the creation of a Kurdistan. Elsewise the US is going to find itself in midst of a guerilla war between an ally and a protectorate.
“hey, look over there… those people are peacefully going about their lives and educating their kids!, we’d better figure out a way to fuck them over again”
I would be happy to see an official kurdistan exist… maybe as a province of iraq? these people seem like the only sane people in the region.
Btw… in intervention to stop the turks from screwing with the kurds is about the only war effort i would support in this region.
As Turkey is a member of NATO, wouldn’t an attack on it by the US require the rest of NATO to defend Turkey?
I don’t know whether the Turks would be insane enough to start an all-out pre-emptive war in Iraqi Kurdistan; I sure as hell hope not. If they did, though, I’d hope the U.S. would do everythng in its power to stop them. It sure could blow up quickly, though; it would be nice if there were someone else there to hold off the Turks besides the U.S. and Brits, both of whom have their own checkered history in the region, but I don’t see how there would be time to get anyone else in to cool things off.
Boy, that could get ugly quickly.
Anyone care to make a guess as to whether the Turks would roll over and allow any level of Kurdish regional autonomy in a reconstructed Iraq? What’s the maximum they would allow without making a fuss about the security of Turkish terrtorial integrity?
Depends. Where’s the checkbook?
I don’t know, Eva. The only nation in the region I can think of would be Israel, but that probably wouldn’t be a good solution.
This situation could be very serious. I don’t really know what is going on up there. However, the Turks said a long time ago that they were going to establish this “buffer zone.” Given the history of Kurdish terrorism - not to downplay Turkish brutality - and the liklihood for a massive influx of refugees, I can understand some of the Turks’ concerns. I just found this, on Turkish Iraq policy (according to the Turks). I’ll be reading in now.
BUT, if the Turks are making a land grab into Iraq, I don’t see how we can allow it (we are the protectors of Iraq right now - like the Iraqi Army can do it). Bullshit “preemption” rhetoric spewed for effect aside, this would be a pure land grab. But, no, I don’t think we can attack Turkey either. Finally, we can’t sell out the Kurds.
If you combine, must stop Turkey, can’t attack Turkey, and must protect Iraq’s integrity and the Iraqi Kurds - something has to give. My guess would be the second one, NATO membership notwithstanding. Of course, no, we still can’t do that. I would expect not to hear about the threats going from Washington DC to Ankara, but that does not mean they aren’t being made.