Let’s say the US populace gets so sick of being involved in the middle east that even the politicians say “enough” to the foreign and US special interests who want us to be involved.
How would the middle east get along if we just took our ball and went home?
What would really happen? Does the world go to hell in hand basket, do problems finally start to get solved?
I think slightly more info is required.
The U.S. provides Egypt, Isreal, and Saudi Arabia money, tech, and intel. Are you talking about stopping that?
In terms of troop pullouts in Iraq and Afghanistan, I suspect that there will be some blood spilled as folks scamble to fill any power vacuum left by us, as well as trying to take over from whatever groups that are perceived to be weak. My guess is that Iraq will probably return (eventually) to some kind of (more or less) stable nation state, Afghanistan not so much.
If you mean, we disengage from being involved with the “peace talks” that have gone on forever, I’d say not much would change.
If you mean we just tell them in every way, “Bugger you. We’re out.”, then I think Israel would see itself as being in a lot more danger of attack and would become much more aggressive. Full out war would start pretty much immediately as Israel tears a new one out of everyone who could possibly nuke them within ten years, then they expand their borders for greater security.
If the US disengages from involvement in middle east affairs what would happen?
When your car runs out of petrol you would not be able to purchase any more.
I suspect the OP is more aimed at would there still be terrorism.
Terrorists are not, as they claim to be, Holy Warriors who discovered an evil in the world and are set out to end it. They are people who have been disenfranchised in some way and are looking for both someone to blame and a new purpose in life. Islam makes it a little easier, since the religion was founded by war and has religious texts that can easily be interpreted to glorify war.
So Terrorists would still be there, and its possible they may not see us as the obvious targets or at least they’d have a harder time justifying the US/Europe as targets without our backing Israel as the backbone of their arguements. We buy our oil from them, we don’t take it. Its still a saleable idea that we are raping them of their resources, but its not an easily saleable idea. Eventually people will realize that without our buying, they would still be selling elsewhere or poorer. Oil, itself, makes a poor street currency and they’d really rather have the dollars than more oil than they can actually use.
Israel would cease to exist. Sure, there’d be a little nuclear war, but the oil is underground - unaffected in the long term and the area isn’t a source of anyone else’s food. Israel has nukes but not enough to wipe out all the local enemies they’d make by using the ones they have. Tehran and a couple cities in Lebanon and Syria would disappear. Mecca is also likely as a last stand Nuclear attack target from Israel.
Pakistan and India would go back to border skirmishing. That wouldn’t escalate though with the fresh reminder of the horror of atomic warfare in the smoldering ruins of Tehran.
I’m assuming the OP implies we’d remain out of affairs. Only charitable organizations would then be helping with the rebuilding of the area. Turkey would expand it influence southward - mostly avoiding the ire of Israel, but taking ownership of the land after the war. Persia - reformed from Iran and Iraq would think about it, but be too busy consolidating power in the old borders to really want to keep palestine.
All human society needs hierarchy, whether it’s at home, in the work place, in international affairs – that’s why empires succeed empires.
In the Middle East the USA replaced the British, if the USA withdraws another will fill the vacuum because that oil matters, it gives great power.
If the USA was serious about abating the threat to the US mainland from extreme Islam it doesn’t need to withdraw from the ME, instead it must stop implicitly supporting the oppression of the Palestinian people, as well as withdraw from Iraq.
Those are pretty much the remaining demands of ObL.
If the US just quits, first of all Iraq would be divided into warring parts, the Kurds north, the Sunnis central and the Shi’as in the south. What would happen is anyone’s guess.
The Kurds are problematic, as first off the Kurds and Shi’as would want revenge on the Sunnis for they ruled Iraq under Saddam. However, this alliance wouldn’t be long lived. The Kurds also live in Iran, Turkey and Syria, none of which wants and independent Kurd states. So there would be offers and withdrawls of help to keep the Kurds busy warring in Iraq and keeping their own Kurdish populations so busy worrying about Iraq they’d have trouble fighting in their own countries.
As for Israel ceasing to exist. Nope and there are several reasons for this. Ever wonder why the Israelis were always able to beat the Arabs? Even without Nukes? Mainly 'cause Arabs are divided. Oh yes they certainly all agree Israel = Bad. Well up to a point.
Israel is a pain to them, but it does have its purposes. Let’s look at Egypt and Syria. They’re friendly even at one point they formed an actual union called the United Arab Republic, and that lasted a few years till the Syrians realized Egypt was more interested in being “Top Dog” then promoting unity and good will.
Syrians hate Israel, but they also aren’t found of Egyptians either. And Egyptians are cold to Israel but they aren’t much warmer to Syria.
But by allowing Israel to exist, Syria can be certain that Israel is so busy tied up with worrying about Egypt that it has less time to attack Syria. And it works out that having Israel occupied dealing with Syria, give Egypt a chance to deal with other things without having to worry about Israel attacking.
Even during the 1973 war, we now know Jordan warned Israel in advance, and Israel failed to take it seriously. (Kind of like Britian warning Stalin before WWII).
The big myth is all Arabs like each other and this is so far from the truth it’s laughable. The only thing Arabs have in common is dislike of Israel but once you remove that, then the next thing is to deal with the dislike of other. Israel makes the “enemy of my enemy is my friend” thing work. Look how long the Soviet, British, American alliance held up after Hitler died. Not long. Same for if Israel was to be destroyed
Israel wouldn’t even need to use Nukes against Egypt, taking out the Aswan High Dam and the Answan Dam would cause flooding and disaster in Cairo and any other big place on the Nile.
With the US withdrawl as another poster said, you’d find another regional power to step in an take its place. perhaps China would try to expand and purchase more oil to keep it’s industry running. You’d probably see a lot more internal strife among the nations of the Mideast
I figure the Chinese will step up their involvement, and the first terrorist-style attack directed at them will receive a response that will be impressive in its brutality.
Actually, the U.S. should step up alternative energy to bankrupt the region and the dictatorial regimes within, which doesn’t happen to include Israel.
Agreed with the last point. We should make a much stronger collective effort as a nation to free ourselves from even buying or needing any natural resource from that region at all (I’m definitely hoping that Volt will be a success). Leave those morons alone and let them kill themselves into a new stable order without our money and blood.
What gives me hope is that I believe the days of oil being such a coveted commodity are near the end.