Assume that there is some sort of localized event that completely wipes out the US permanently, but leaves all other countries untouched. The effects stop precisely at the border.
US citizens overseas survive, but the carrier groups do not. US troops that are stationed in other countries survive, but there is nothing left that resembles national leadership.
What country, or group of countries, would rise to dominate the Americas? Canada and Mexico would vie for dominance in North America, while Brazil and Argentina would duke it out in South America. Would any single country be able to dominate both continents?
Edit: I forgot to make the poll multiple choice. Perhaps a mod can do that?
Canada has the best military, but the nature of the “localized event” is crucial. If the former continental US is now a radioactive wasteland, “domination” of North America becomes moot. Also, what about Alaska, and the military assets therein?
In North America, if the geographic space is takeable, Mexico has a manpower advantage to reclaim what used to be Mexican/Spanish territory until supply lines stretch too far out; Canada would want to secure Alaska, the Midwest and Northeast but they have far fewer total people with whom to do it; it has on day D minus 1 a far, far larger economy BUT one maybe even more joined at the hip to that of the USA as Mexico’s.
Otherwise you have a thinly populated resources-rich strong-social-capital high-wealth established G7-economy vs a very highly populated resources-rich but high-social-inequality emergent economy, but both of whom just had Mark Trumbo take batting practice upon their delicate glands. It becomes a matter of who can better restabilize their economy in the ensuing massive fiscal crash so they can actually feed the rebuilding of a continental power.
On top of it, Canada still has to think beyond North America as it wold be now by itself as the Other Arctic Power, to balance out Russia.
If some US locales are re-occupiable the Canadians may call on the Japanese, South Koreans, Australians and NATO to aid in quickly repatriating the remnant US forces in Asia/Pacific, and many of those who would want to return to rebuild may be more willing, temperamentally, to do so within the Canadian aegis. Plus even if it weren’t, much of those forces may wish to continue being linked with North America as part of Canada.
In South America, Brazil again has a clear advantage in population and size of economy on day minus one. There being no literal local “vacuum” created by this event, other than the (perhaps slightly not-as-huge version of the) economic/financial bat-to-everyone’s-balls, the lines of potential alliance games would stay largely where they are. Mind you, though, once they were done with independence the Hispanophone countries have less than brillant record at forming a united political and economic front even when their lives depend on it. If Argentina tried to say they want to bid for great regional power status they may find themselves standing alone.
To boil down what JR said, territorial boundaries would snap back to pretty much what was historically Mexico before the US took over those areas, Canada would take some and assist in repatriating troops and peoples from overseas to rebuild in what is left. Ummm, I see a greater amount of influence from France and England, but I’m not sure if it would rise to the level of “domination”. I think you would see the official formation of the nation of Oceania with at least part of Florida in the mix there.
For South America, I got nothin. Mexico would certainly have to adjust along its southern border, perhaps we would see the emergence of nation-states somewhat along the lines of the old (pre-European invasion) cultures?
Personally, I look forward to being a Southern Canadian. (just call me Bub, oh and hold my beer while ya watch this!)
I voted Mexico for North America only. Without the United States, Mexico could simply legalize marijuana, allowing them to extirpate the drug cartels, and thereby make a good start in rebuilding a stronger civil society and economy. They have the numbers and the drive. Canada will take Maine, that’s a given (according to Stephen King in 11/22/63). Otherwise Canadians are too polite to insist in the face of Mexican expansionism. The votes for Canada being in the majority are not connected with any ethnic bias in favor of Anglophone nations, are they? No, of course not. Mexico will immediately reoccupy the lands we took from them and press their prior claim to them (successfully) on the grounds that the treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo is abrogated by the extinction of the United States. It would not be long before Mexico returned to the early Spanish colonial claims to the entire Pacific coast and Gulf coast and Florida. Next would be the Great Plains and eventually the Southeast. As for the future of the Great Lakes region in this scenario, my hunch is that Mexico has the numbers and the drive to get control of at least some of the Great Lakes (Lake Michigan, if nothing else). They need the water for their vast tracts of marginal land; with it, they could prosper as never before. Canada is well supplied with water and would not see a need to fight for the resource.
I know less about South America, but my impression is they would continue much as they are now, with Argentina and Brazil being the two rival powers. Colombia could legalize cocaine and proceed as above and that would help.
Depending on the nature of the “destruction” visited upon the US, the answer might well be “the successor state to the US”. After all, the Russian Empire was destroyed, to be succeeded by the Soviet Union, which before long was a significant power. The German Reich was destroyed but the Federal Republic of Germany is a fairly significant player today. The Republic of China was all but destroyed; the PRC is now a major power. And so forth.
Admirable though the US constitution is, the US isn’t a great power because of its political arrangments, but because of its economic, industrial, etc resources. If these survive the destruction of the Union, the successor state or states will still be very powerful.
If you are talking military, then count out Canada. Our military is too small and our government too weak-kneed and afraid to offend anyone.
If you are talking economics, then Canada would come out over Mexico.
Canada would take Alaska, Washington, Oregon and maybe the northern half of California. Don’t think we would want L. A. Mexico can have it.
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