If there is no debt ceiling increase, can the President pick and choose what debts get paid?

The latest talking point by House Republicans is, there is no hurry to increase the debt ceiling, because there won’t be a default. They contend the President can pay the interest on the debt, and fund necessary programs with daily revenues.

Is this true? Can we pay the interest on the debt, pay the military, pay Social Security, and then decide what other programs get funded? How much discretion does the President have to pay bills? Could he cut off subsidies to agribusiness and oil companies, while funding food stamps? Can he target programs that coincidentally benefit red states more than blue states?

One thing I heard on NPR yesterday was that there is a practical side to this, too. The payments are automated, and scheduled in a batch. There isn’t an option to pay A but not B. Either they all go out or none go out.

That is not to say that it couldn’t be changed, but the impression left was that it wasn’t easy.

I think the catch is in that phrase “necessary programs.” If the Government only pays “necessary programs,” that suggests it’s not paying some other programs. If those payments for other programs are mandated by law or by contract, and the Government doesn’t pay them, that’s still a default. Partial default, not a default on everything, but still a default.

All of the debt (i.e., T-bills) has to be paid, because that’s constitutionally required. It’s never been tested in court, but even if Treasury tried to stop paying, I suspect that bondholders could sue to force payments to continue.

As far as what would get cut from current operations to pay the debt, I think that’s less clear. Presumably there would be some essential/non-essential distinction like we’re seeing as to the shutdown. There’s probably also some basis for arguing that the cuts would have to come from discretionary spending as opposed to entitlements, but I’m not well enough versed in appropriations law to know if that’s true. Subsidies in the form of money going out could presumably be cut, but I don’t think there’s any way to stop or recapture subsidies in the form of tax deductions or credits.

From a technical level, there’s probably no effective way to do this. Let’s say that you have a checking account at a bank, for which you have several checkbooks, each of different colors. To run your business, you have it organized so that your employees write blue checks for payroll, yellow checks for utilities, pink checks for office supplies, etc. Your accounting department is writing these checks all the time and sending them out, and everything works fine when you have a sufficient balance.

Now business turns bad and you have no overdraft insurance. Can you call your bank manager and say, “Today, when my customers deposit checks into their accounts, I would only like you to process the orange ones. No others. Kthxbye.” The bank manager would say, there’s no way for the bank to physically do that – you have to manage your cash by how you send out checks.

Now you would have to manage on a daily basis within your company which color checks get written, whether you have enough money to cover those that are written, plus worry about what happens if someone decides to hold on to their check for a month, as opposed to cashing them right away. You know what this means right away: your business turns into a clusterfuck, and the cost of doing business becomes very great for very little output.

Although the analogy isn’t exact, that’s what happens if the flow of money from each agency (each color checkbook) has to be metered by availability of funds, rather than the liquidation of contractual obligations.

From a legal perspective, this is uncharted territory. The Impoundment Control Act generally prohibits the President from refusing to expend funds, but with a slightly different twist. Impoundment is when a President, for policy reasons, decides that certain funds shall not be spent and should effectively be a cancellation of appropriations. He’s saying, “I don’t want to spend this money, ever, because it’s for a stupid thing I disagree with.”

The President has no power to impound funds. It’s illegal. If he never wishes to spend money on something, he must propose a rescission to Congress, which would have to result in a new law being passed to eliminate that appropriation. This never ever happens.

However, there is a normal process by which the Executive Branch attempts to spend funds and for non-policy reasons, it simply is unable to. Funds provided to agencies are usually limited to a certain period of availability: typically a year or two, sometimes longer, as the law directs. There’s almost always a little bit of money that remains unspent when the funds expire, and that is not illegal. Maybe contracts came in lower than expected; maybe a program was cancelled because it wasn’t working out, maybe inflation was less than predicted. That’s just what happens in life, and nobody is breaking the law because an agency wasn’t able to spend all its money for unintentional reasons.

Now, there’s no law providing a blueprint for how to deal with the lack of money in the Treasury. There’s a law providing a blueprint for what happens if there is money in the Treasury but a lack of spending authority, which is what we have right now.

But my opinion is that the President would obviously have to make some kind of decisions on how limited dollars would be spent, and given the totality of circumstances, that there is no way that the President could be accused of breaking the law if his decisions fit some kind of understandable framework that is not overtly a means of punishing certain constituencies but not others.

So, in my view, if the President decided that debt service and Social Security would be paid to the best of the Treasury’s ability, but no money for procurement contracts, etc., that would be perfectly legal and acceptable. However, if the President said that only contracts and workers in California, New York and Illinois would be paid, that would not be in accordance with the very vague laws that are on the books.

No, it is not default, and I’m getting sick and tired of people not understanding that not paying a contract is not a default in any real sense of the term that’s used to apply to the national debt. Default is the inability to service the debt. Failure to pay a contractor on time is a delinquency.

May just be a difference in vocabulary; I’m quite used to seeing and using the phrase “in default” to mean a debtor who has not paid a contractual obligation, outside of the context of government. YMMV, as I’m operating in a different legal system.

I posted this in another thread but it’s relevant here:

So-called “prioritization” might not technically be a default. Howeverthe Treasury Department says that’s impossible, there’s no guarantee that it would prevent a default, and might not be even be legal:

And if they somehow jerry rig the system in order to not miss an interest payment, sending the global economy into a freefall?

But hey, let’s assume that despite all of this, they manage to not miss an interest payment, not break the law in doing so, and manage rto only skip out on paying things which wouldn’t technically default the debt. Everything would be hunky dory, right? Well, no.

Fucking Republicans.

Yes, but destroying America and the World’s economy is deffo better than having affordable health care.

I’m not at all sure that sensible and reasonable approaches to which debt is actually payable and which is not will help anything. People all over the world buy US debt. They don’t buy it because the return is so abundant, it isn’t. They buy it because US debt is reliable, safe and secure. Until now.

If everyone takes a calm and relaxed attitude toward this, a “muddle through” approach, it might be OK. But how many lemmings does it take to start the stampede? Nobody wants to be last in line in a rush on the bank, so everybody is keenly attuned to that prospect. Which means the answer to the riddle is one, or less. Because all it will take is a rumor of a stampede, and then the prediction fulfills itself. All that has to happen is for one of the lemmings to think another is making a dash for it, and all hell breaks loose.

And if the US must offer a higher return on our debt in order to finance it, that amounts to an immediate and possibly permanent increase in our deficit, the very thing that the Pubbies are in such a lather about!

Outside of the dreadful prospect that so many undeserving people might live longer and be more healthy, of course.

Obama can try to do almost anything, but enough of the people in the exective branch may procrastinate to make it ineffective. In a year or two, congress would likely impeach the president, but we would elect a new president, before the impeachment was finalized. Possibly The USA can cover necessary expenses long term.
More likely the cost of barrowing would increase drastically taking all of the tax receipts and leaving nothing for essentials. Neil

Mechanically, I understand that the system to pay interest on US debt is separate from the system to pay for everything else. CNN:

Automated payment systems would have to be overhauled: The Treasury pays millions of bills every day. It pays interest to bond investors from one computer system and makes all other payments from another.

So technically it may be possible to at least prioritize interest payments since they’re processed separately. But it would be much harder to prioritize everything else.

“Treasury’s systems are not designed to allow picking and choosing. Payments are automatically made as they come due,” former Congressional Budget Director Donald Marron told Congress last week.
Debt ceiling cash crunch: Millions won't get paid

Nitpick: it is inevitable that modern conservatives will accuse him of disobeying the law regardless of what he does. Heck current National Review ads headline the admin’s alleged, “Collapse of law”.
All of this could be averted of Boehner would allow a conventional continuing resolution to come up for a vote.

I was led to believe it was no different than my household budget.

So we just scrutinize each bill, and pay the ones we like, and skip the ones we don’t. I think I saw Lucy do that once.

What do you mean, “we?” Obama’s the Messiah and can miraculously do this all by himself, like the Republicans in the OP suggest. He doesn’t need a government bureaucracy to help him write the checks.

So, are there other options?

I’ve read somewhere (a Q&A on BBC News, I think) that the President could ignore the debt ceiling and order that things continue to be paid – it would be illegal and he’d likely be impeached. But would that work, would someone else stop that? What would be the reaction of the voters and the markets?

I don’t want to get into conspiracy theories, but are there any emergency laws Obama could use to make continuing to pay legal? National state of emergency?

If the fallout from a default is as bad as everyone says, and the debit limit isn’t raised in time it seems that Obama would have some moral justification for breaking the law?

But there seems to be a lot less panic and worry than I would have expected, does everyone just assume that the limit will get raised just in time (or is it because I’m not it the US, so not getting all the panic).

SD

Possibly. The Treasury can mint a trillion dollar platinum coin and deposit it at the Federal Reserve. It’s legal (oddly) but the Treasury and the Fed have announced that they won’t play along with that. There’s a more clever gambit of issuing a $1000 bond with a particularly high coupon. You could sell them for $2500. That would represent an end-run around the debt ceiling.

Regardless, lawsuits would follow.

What I’ve seen elsewhere is that this scenario is as bad as any other because it’s not about whether people on day X + 1 get their money, it’s about whether or not the U.S. government lets the situation happen. If Obama is paying money that he might be impeached for paying, that’s enough to shake the world’s confidence in USD as a reserve currency; further, who wants to buy T-bills when their repayment is contingent upon an impeachment failing? Who wants to gamble on the U.S. government repudiating a financial obligation incurred by a president who was impeached for incurring it?

All in all, no matter what’s done, it adds up to a huge kick in the junk to the world’s confidence in the U.S. Dollar, and that’s the outcome that leads to a massive economic downturn. It doesn’t matter what ninja moves Obama can pull–having to pull them means it’s already too late.

Indeed, and the word out from the recent ASEAN and APEC meetings is that a couple of your serious creditors are getting edgy. Of course so long as they accept USD denominated payments the US retains the right to print the spondule needed at minimal cost/inconvenience. But lose that reserve currency status and it becomes standard practice to buy EUR or RMB to fund the current US lifestyle and it’s going to get dammed expensive, dammed quickly. And the US economy needs higher interest rates even less than it needs a government shutdown.

With the degree of leverage and hedging in play, coupled with autotrading of currency positions the second one will follow in nanoseconds.

OK, how about this…the President orders shit to be paid. Maybe that is in his purview, maybe it isn’t, so we gotta go to court. Meantime, his orders are followed and the country isn’t turned into a smoking ruin. Buys some time for the nutbars to realize this shit just isn’t going to work.

Impeach Obama for saving the country? Get serious.