This is a pure speculation thread, though honestly I think we are on the brink of a new cold war right now, personally. That is probably not a popular or agreed upon conclusion though, so for the purpose of this thread let’s say that it happens. A new cold war between the US and China is a reality. Who do you think would side with China, who with the US…and who attempt to stay neutral, assuming either side would allow that? This thread came out of a discussion this weekend with some friends of mine from the UK who were saying that a lot of mainland Europe, especially Germany seem to be moving further from the US and more heavily into the Chinese sphere. Personally, I find this hard to believe, though I do know that there is a lot of frustration over Trump, but this was the claim. This got me thinking…who WOULD side with the US in a new cold war, and who with China? And who would attempt to straddle the fence? I have my own ideas on this, and in a break from my usual threads I’ll put those down.
I think countries that would side with the US are our traditional allies, as well as countries who are both threatened by the CCPs expansion and aren’t too heavily entwined with China economically, or at least who see the threat as greater than the benefit. The UK I think would side with the US, as would Australia, Japan, Canada, and Taiwan. Those are countries I’m pretty confident would side with the US, or at least see their interested more aligned with the US than with China. Countries I’m less sure of, or who aren’t traditional allies but who I think might side with the US to an extent are India, South Korea, much of Western Europe, and much of Eastern Europe as well. Russia will never align directly with the US, but I think they won’t fully be in China’s camp either, but instead play their own game. Vietnam will I think align more with the US, as they definitely see the threat, though again I don’t think this will be a full alignment. Mexico I think will more align with the US than China, though I’m unsure of the level. I think the Philippines will align with China, though I don’t think fully, as will several countries in Central and South America as well as in Africa. Iran of course is already aligned with China and I think with the recent deals that will be even more tight. I’m unsure of the rest of the Middle East, but Saudi will probably align more with the US than with China. North Korea, of course, will continue to align with China, probably even more tightly as they are almost completely dependent on China now.
What say you, 'dopers? What countries do you see fully aligning with one or the other, which ones do you see straddling the fence or trying to stay neutral?