I’m trying to get the sense of, if you were an average man on the street, right before war erupted, was the common opinion that “conflict is inevitable, it’s just a matter of when” or “war is unthinkable, nothing would suggest it’s about to happen” or somewhere in the middle?
In short, if people a year before the start of the war had to lay odds on whether it would happen, what would the popular sentiment be?
“conflict is inevitable, it’s just a matter of when” - Yes
“war is unthinkable, nothing would suggest it’s about to happen” - Yes
somewhere in the middle - Yes
Who are you asking? People in the U.S.? In Britain? In China?
You’d get about the same amount of agreement if you asked 1000 people on the Dope who was going to win the Presidential election in 2016.
Japan declared war on China in 1937 (and others date the beginning of WWII even earlier) so war had already started by 1938. In fact probably somebody was warring on somebody else just about every year from 1900 to 1939, so you’d have to be a lot more specific to get precise odds.
If you’re asking for the answer to “What are the chances of the U.S. becoming involved in a European war withing the next 5 years?” I’d have to say it was likely considered much higher in 1938 than 1913. And I’d think it was considered quite small in 1913.
Wars don’t (usually) happen at the drop of an insult, but instead are the culmination of a length period of increasing international tensions.
From at least as far back as the late 1800’s, the European nations had been jostling for power and influence, and tensions among the larger powers (England, France, Germany, Italy, Russia at least; probably Spain and Portugal too in those days; also Austria/Hungary and Prussia) had been growing. Every time any nation seemed to be gaining power, alliances would shift and the other nations would align against that nation. When one of those allied powers began to gain influence, then alliances would shift again accordingly.
This evolved into a quasi-stable understanding among the nations that this was the way it was to be; around that time, the phrase “World Order” came into use to describe this. But as nations jostled to gain power, this led to a gradual but ever-escalating “battle” for power, and ultimately it wasn’t so stable.
It was well-understood at the time that this was happening, and diplomats of the era tried to work with one another to contain it (each, of course, while also aiming for his own country’s advantage).
Tensions had become quite high by the early 1900’s, and it was widely foreseen that some blow-out was likely coming. Nobody knew specifically that it was going to be an assassination by a crank in Bosnia. But by the time that happened, that was all it took, and all of Europe went kablooie.
Primary source: The book Diplomacy (Overview on Wikipedia) by Henry Kissinger, 1994, discusses this era of diplomacy in detail.
In 1888, the German leader Otto von Bismarck, remarked, “One day the great European War will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans.”
Betting on a war in Europe every 25 years or so was a smart move.
In both cases, odds on war breaking out within 18 months, 5:4 and pick 'em.
Nitpick, Japan didn’t declare war on China in 1937. Japan described their military activity as a series of incidents, to avoid international involvement.
It wasn’t until 9 December 1941 that China formally declaredwar on Japan.
There were two separate wars confined to the Balkans in 1912 and 1913. So likely even money on their being “a war in Europe” probably. Probably longer odds on a single war involving all five great European powers at once though.
Wars are like a lot of things in life.
Everyone thinks they are some far off event that will not involve them. Never will happen, Never will happen, Never will happen …Right up to the moment when all of a sudden the troops are on the move.
True in 1913, 1938 and true now.
In 1938 Germany was threatening to invade Czechoslovakia. That threat was supposedly resolved by the Munich agreement (Chamberlain’s infamous “Peace for our time” quote). So there were clearly spark points that could lead to a general European War, but they looked to be contained. So it was definitely somewhere in the middle.
It depends on what you really mean by “odds on war breaking out”
If the bet was, “There will someday be a war, anywhere in the world” the odds would be horrible, as everyone would expect this.
If the bet was, “The United States will declare war on Germany on April 6, 1917” the odds would be very long indeed.
If the bet was somewhere between the two in terms of specificity, the odds would be somewhere in the middle.
Since there’s no simple factual answer to this, let’s move this to IMHO.
Colibri
General Questions Moderator
WWI is interesting. Many Diplomats thought the interlocking series of alliances would prevent war, or at least a major war. And everyone though that any war “would be over by Christmas.”
Of course, some minor squabble was expected.
So the odds of a major war in 1913 would be low.
But by 1938 everyone thought war was coming. This is why dudes even bought into Chamberlain’s “Peace in our time” with a sense of relief.