Is oil really the binding issue here? Iraqi oil has long been unavailable to begin with, we’re voluntarily depriving ourselves of Iranian oil, and Saudi Arabia has the 4th largest mitary budget in the world. ISTM this is mainly about the domestic politics of Western war journalists and aid workers being beheaded on the Internet.
Look at a map…then look at this map. Then think about where ISIS is fighting and what countries are around it. Seriously, most of the worlds current oil production (not to mention reserves) are in the area that’s under threat. I’d say that this is a large reason most countries care. In addition, we do have a relationship and at least some responsibility for Iraq, since we basically broke it. But in the end it’s about the oil, IMHO, since strategically the US totally relies on it to continue to function. Anyone who thinks ‘we’ (again, basically the entire industrialized world) should just ignore threats to the supply and reserves doesn’t understand this basic principal.
I completely and totally disagree. IS has done well because things in Syria are so fractured that any organization with some battlefield momentum gains a bandwagon effect: many fighters just want to be with a winner.
IS has shown no ability to provide basic services in areas they control or look out for even their own fighters. Nobody is loyal very long to an organization that’s a complete fuckup.
I bet you $10 that IS just starts a long period of falling apart within the next few months. Not “OMG fighters are blending in to the population!” I’m talking, “Gee, looks like thousands of our fighters just kinda… left.”
US withdrawing from Lebanon.
You think all that oil would not be trafficked in much the same way it is now? I think it will all even out and the markets will attain near-equilibrium after short-term disruption.
Actually, Ken001, IS’s conduct and brutal modus operandi have alienated almost all the layers of Islam and radical Islam practiced anywhere, save for maybe one or two ultra-radical clerics here and there that don’t really have a popular base. Yes, there is an inflow of jihadis or fighters from the region and beyond, but they’re mostly in for the killing and bounty-taking, without any religious pretext to their practices save for what is necessary for photo ops. Even other radical groups such as al-Nusra Front and al-Qaeda have distanced themselves from IS. The thing about IS is that they are so extreme in what they do that they have somehow become appealing to certain individuals or groups of people, and this is all there is to it. Another reason they’re making sure everyone gets a glimpse of their brutality is that they want to instill fear in the hearts of the soldiers of any opposing force that decides to launch a ground offensive.
Also, bear in mind that IS doesn’t offer any more radical interpretation of Islam than the one used by the Taliban or al-Qaeda for example. It’s just that they’re applying the workbook down to the edge of the knife, but without really adding anything new to it.
That would be true in the case of dormant militant groups, or others that are only operating domestically, such as the Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan or Abu Sayyaf in the Philippines. The problem with IS is that, not only are they expansionist and have invaded vast lands in just a few months, but they’re also conglomerating; they’re receiving pledges of allegiance from other radical groups, such as Boko Haram and Nigeria and radical groups in Libya. And so, while people may differ on the danger of these radical groups without being associated with the IS, the IS needs to be battled first, and it needs to be battled at home.
Might something like Lebanon-style “confessionalism” perhaps be the way to go?
With Iraq’s Shias taking on the role of Lebanon’s Christian plurality - guaranteed the top spot, but reserving key governmental roles to representatives of the country’s minorities?
Now, I realise that, short-term, Shia-on-Sunni atrocities are all but unavoidable - but long-term? Maybe? Perhaps? Why not?
Hell, look to Iran. Though the percentages and the history there are obviously quite different, that place, too, has a Shia majority governing a Sunni minority. (I think it’s roughly ca. 90% vs. 10% in Iran, compared to ca. 65% vs. 35% in Iraq.)
I’m sure there is widespread discrimination - I seem to recall that Sunni mosques are a no-no in the capital, for example - but it seems the Iranians have, at the very least, found a solution short of Quartz-style genocide for co-existing with their Sunnis.
Perhaps, in the post-ISIS-era, the Iraqis could find a similar arrangement - far from perfect, but at the very least enough to keep the peace.
I don’t think that the Lebanese model is admirable enough to implement anywhere in the world. It’s a sectarian model based on dividing money and power among the strongest families representing their own sects, thus guaranteeing that a civil war might be break out any moment if two douche bags belonging to opposing families/parties/sects had a fight in a bar one sordid night.
Also, as you know very well, what’s happening in Iraq is a proxy war between regional and global powers, and it’s much lesser of an Iraqi problem than it is an international one. The Shias in Iraq are armed and funded by Iran, and the Sunnis by Saudi Arabia, and all the other ethnicities and sects, such as the Yazidis and Assyrians, are caught up in the fray. There are the Kurds too, but they’re mainly a defensive entity that wants independence without getting into fights with anyone.
Whether it’s “admirable” or not isn’t the question. The question is whether it could help prevent yet another civil war. In Lebanon, post-Taif, it seems that it has (at least so far!). Whether or not it would work in Iraq is, I think, certainly worth discussing.
ISIS is hardly a Saudi puppet, and there are real and meaningful differences of opinion between Iraqi Shia authorities and Iranian Shia authorities. Sure, it is also, to some extent, a “proxy war between regional and global powers,” but it’s not quite as simple as that.
I would try to get many members that escaped from IS and then get all the info that i need from them. From there the army should do the job in finding the head liders.
I believe that most Arab and Western intelligence agencies must have (or should have) infiltrated the IS with dormant agents by now.
I don’t see how it has worked in Lebanon. What’s in Lebanon right now is more of a desolate armistice than peace. Ending a civil war involves dismantling and eliminating all the factors that led to it. In Lebanon there is an AK-47 under every bed, and everyone is ready to be woken up in the morning and told that there are ‘troubles’ somewhere. After Taif there have been many political assassinations, massacres and skirmishes. The country is currently without a president. The cabinet resigns sooner than you could learn the names of the ministers. And how about the residential segregation? The Lebanese status quo is fertile soil for civil war, and this is not a system that has worked. It didn’t, and it won’t, keep anyone from getting killed. There is no rule of law, and if you’re the relative of a prominent personage here or there, you could park your BMW 7 Series on the tarmac of Rafiq Hariri International Airport.
And yet for all that, the current Lebanese situation is still better than what you have in Syria or Iraq. At least for now.
Anyway, as for long-term political solutions, what would you yourself propose?
More examples for XT:
The Peace Corps.
After WW2 the Dutch were trying to reclaim their former colony of Indonesia, using extremely violent methods. According to the Lonely Planet Publishers guidebook to Indonesia the US put pressure on the Dutch to cease and desist, and Indonesians still remember the US favorably for that. It probably pissed off a few Dutch, but it was appreciated by far more people.
There can be no long-term political stability in Lebanon without, first, it is isolated from the regional melee. Since there is no hope in change in either Saudi Arabia or Iran, then the solution is to somehow isolate Lebanon, and this can only be done if the current oligarchs dominating politics in Lebanon - who are the sons and daughters of the previous oligarchs that dominated politics in Lebanon in the past few decades - are removed from power, and they won’t be peacefully removed from power until the state - represented in the army - steps with heavy boots on the ground. The army must be reinforced and strengthened with weaponry and personnel, and this won’t be done without international support, and the international support won’t come unless there are guarantees that the army is in fact not controlled by Hizbollah, and that such reinforcements won’t be used against Israel in any way.
So this is what I’m saying:
Strong state removes oligarchs, re-writes constitution, disarms the belligerent factions, ends Lebanese participation in the Syrian civil war and re-structures security apparatuses.
Thought I might expand on this.
The current top dog in Najaf, Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani, is far from an Iranian puppet:
Likewise, al-Sistani’s most likely successor, Grand Ayatollah al-Hakim, also
Not that the Iranians aren’t trying.
Their preferred candidate for the job would be Hashemi Shahroudi, a consummate insider of Iranian politics, and extremely close to Khamenei. Now, the dude didn’t even open an office in Najaf until, what, 2012 - but ten or fifteen years down the line, if he makes the right moves, doesn’t fuck up and manages to stays alive, who knows, perhaps, maybe.
I never said a political solution would be easy. Maybe it will be impossible. In that case, there is no military solution either. Of course there is always ONE political solution. One that I more or less predicted from the beginning-- another dictator and police state. That might not defeat the SCIS, but it will minimize it.
Hey MorphinePoet, sounds like what you’re saying is that the best long-term solution in order to avoid a civil war would be… To start a civil war. Because that’s what you’d get if some Western-backed, pro-Israel strongman suddenly appeared and tried to take away Hezbollah’s guns (“disarms the belligerent factions”).
Now do Iraq. What’s your idea of a long-term solution there?
I see Sarath Fonsekais currently unemployed. Appoint him commander-in-chief of the Iraqi army and let him loose. The LTTE were at least as capable as ISIS.
Of course, whoever controls the oil is going to pump and export it. It is too valuable a resource not to exploit.
But does the Lebanese Army have the popularity/credibility to pull off a military coup and have its rule accepted by the people? The Turkish, Pakistani and Egyptian armies have repeatedly proved they have that, but does the Lebanese Army?