It would seem like the simplest way to counter a local weather argument is to provide stats on global winter averages, are they increasing, decreasing or staying the same?
Of course not, since he can’t be bothered to simply quote what he disagrees with, or is talking about. I can guess, but that wouldn’t be scientific at all.
Of course, but that would require actual effort, and understanding climate science, and lifting a finger now and then.
Who can be bothered to do all that work?
:smack:
Now the examples from kidchameleon (you can put more than one quote in a post, FYI) are something that may be the source of some confusion.
As an astute observer noted earlier, posting a weather event and claiming it means something about global climate change is done all the time, when it’s a heat wave or record high. Posting a cold event and claiming it means something, is holding up a mirror to this behavior.
But it’s more fucked up than just that, since I am also claiming the cold proves global warming is happening. On the face of it it would seem like simple mockery, but I also introduced early on the story that colder winters, record cold events, are now being blamed on global warming. (post 22).
But I didn’t just mention this, I posted multiple times links to scientific studies, papers, as well as Cohen’s theory about how this could be happening. (I also posted links to several other theories from working scientists about the changes)
So mentioning horrific unusual cold, and blaming it on global warming, is a double irony, which certainly could be confusing as fuck at times. You don’t see too many examples (yet) of the media or climate scientist blaming cold on warming, but it is happening.
So it’s complicated. Which is exactly why trends are more important than single events. If the trend shows warming, a cold winter, or even several, would mean little. But if the trend show cooling, over decades, it’s another story.
See something ridiculous in your mirror, do you?
FX, you’re a fucking idiot.
Pepper, so are you.
::shrugs::
I take predictions seriously when they’re falsifiable, and react accordingly when they aren’t; I cannot do otherwise; folks who do the opposite are routinely scorned here on the SDMB, but for some reason I’m drawing your scorn for doing so here.
If you have a falsifiable prediction to make, I’ll take it – and you – seriously. If all you have are insults, I’ll try real hard to work up enough enthusiasm to care.
Here’s one, and it’s right on topic. Large regions of the NH have been suffering unusual, even record cold winters. Nothing at all like global warming theory predicted, or predicts.
Cohen’s SCast modle (based on his new theory about what is happening) predicts this winter to be very cold for large areas of the NH, based on snowfall already recorded in Siberia (record early and record amounts)
here’s some sources
http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/perspective/13043/burning-questions-about-winter-cold
http://www.andhranews.net/Intl/2007/August/21/Scientists-verify-accuracy-12588.asp
http://www.iop.org/news/12/jan/page_53414.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/02/why-prosperous-autumn-snows-in-eurasia-may-portend-a-brutal-east-coast-winter/
Here’ an actual paper from Cohen et al. http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers/CohenandFletcher_JC07.pdf
Here’s somebody predicting the same thing
http://firsthandweather.com/374/siberian-snow-cover-may-bring-a-brutally-cold-2014-15-winter/
(I don’t know anything about the firsthandweather blog, just found it)
In case you somehow missed it, recent research based on actual observations (not models) theorizes that the colder winter trend (and it is global, not local), might actually be a result of arctic warming, which is due to greenhouse warming.
This is no small thing. First, if it’s true, it’s fucking huge. If it turns out to be what is actually happening (and this is by no means settled) it directly destroys the consensus greenhouse theory of global warming, as well as the models based on the theory.
Second, and much more important, if it is true, it means the trend will continue, or get worse, which is a seriously fucked situation for our modern civilization. (it will also have huge effects on fuel use in winters, as well as all kinds of other winter issues)
While fuckheads will focus on going “Aha! I told you global warming was bullshit!”, the prudent person will want to know more about it. Especially the predictive value of models like Cohen’s, as well as planning for what to do about it. Other modelers (begrudgingly of course) will change their models, and we might actually get closer to being able to understand the very complex climate system of the earth.
FXMastermind certainly has. If he has changed his mind, that’s okay.
Not yet; give me some more time for research. (Anyway, I definitely am correct that they have been observed.)
Here’s a simple diagram about forecasting using Siberian snow cover
https://www.aer.com/node/740
Here’s some complicated predictive stuff
Cohen has been reasonable accurate with his forecast, much better than the GCMs, when it comes to NH winters.
If we live long enough, we might actually find out who is right.
Dyson’s skepticism and criticism of the models did not include any of this. But in general he seems to have been spot on.
FXMastermind, do you dispute that global surface temperatures have increased over the last 100 years?
Given that the 1800s were the end of the Little Ice Age, this seems like pretty much a no-brainer to me, but I am curious as to your opinion.
I don’t recall him doing that, but I will see what he has to say.
Seems to me you should have done your research before making the actual claim. Making claims to support your position without even knowing if there is any basis is pretty much just bullshitting.
Anyway, I doubt you will find anything compelling.
If there were climatologists with a track record of making interesting bona fide accurate predictions, one would think it would be publicized pretty widely.
I did find this prediction of colder winters…
But I don’t know if a prediction going back only to 2007 is satisfactory. I also don’t have the specific U.N. report this article refers to.
Anyway, the idea of global warming causing colder (local) winters was around in 2007, at least.
Here’s a link:
Edit: At least that’s what came up when I searched for IPCC 2007 report.
Please quote the relevant part where colder winters are predicted.
The Scientific American paper said it did. I gave you that cite. That’s all I’ve got.
Don’t ask me to parse scientific papers, because that’s above my job description. You asked for a cite, I gave you one. It’s up to you to rebut it.
No it’s not – I gave you the link to the actual report. I did a word search and found no reference at all to a prediction of colder winters. None to speak of. It looks to me like the author was bullshitting just like you.
But perhaps I missed something – feel free to quote the actual IPCC report.
I do agree that you have managed to find a prediction of colder winters, even though it is vague and apparently unsourced. But there’s a big problem with that.
Here’s what I also found from Scientific American:
. . .
. . .
. . .
And the idea of warmer winters was around too. The “prediction” you have cited is too vague, too obscure, and contradicted by other predictions to be meaningful.
It would be different, of course, if a prominent organization like the IPCC had made clear, specific, bona fide, interesting predictions which turned out to be accurate.
No, and this came up before in the topic. I pointed out that nobody posting in this topic has disputed that we have measured changes to the global mean temperatures, and that the global mean has increased in the last century. But even that isn’t a simple thing, as there was a very strong warming period and then a very strong cooling (the coming ice age scare), which is evident in all the records. Followed by a strong warming until the nineties, at which point we see this asymmetric climate change, with a strong cooling trend for boreal winters.
As I quoted above, and have mentioned a few times, the pause in warming actually seems to be more of a cooling for NH winters, rather than a pause in warming. This is what the data shows. Which is what makes it so damn interesting.
That, and the new MIT study, which certainly points to more evidence that the greenhouse theory of global warming is seriously flawed.
As I showed in the now locked GD topic, the “pause” seems to be a dramatic shift of the boreal winters, which might be due to solar influence, or as Cohen and others theorize, a strong negative feedback from the increasing snow levels.
And just for laughs (or groans and gnashing of teeth), a river in Greece, that has never frozen over before, froze over.
http://en.enikos.gr/society/22101,Venetikos_river_in_northern_Greece_froze.html
Along with unheard of snowfall and cold, a lot of Greeks are sick of this global warming.
Why laughs you might ask? Because global warming alarmists have been yelling about the dangers of warming, and how winters would become warmer. Not record cold.
Does the fact that it is colder than it ever has been mean anything? Only if you live in the real world.
People molest children all the time. Is that acceptable in your book, too? I mean, as long as the offender says “Science!”, of course.
Would you mind quoting him where he has done so?
Because I think you are bullshitting again.
In fact, I don’t think there’s anyone in this thread who disputes “global warming” as you have defined it.
But please . . . quote him.
Are you fucking kidding? Go and look at any of the threads where he’s gone on at length with GIGObuster about “Every year since 1978 has been colder than 1978,” etc. Look at how he’s mocked the “hockey stick” graph. He denied the fact of global warming for years and years!
Good fucking God, look at his post just two above yours! The one where he says that there isn’t any global warming, because one fucking river froze over!
How can you possibly deny his denialism? He’s soaking in it!
It is colder locally. In some places. You keep doing this, and then denying that you’re doing it. You cherry pick some specific place where it is cold, and try to use that to deny that the overall temperature of the biosphere is higher.
It’s clearly not possible that the climate is changing. Now, line up 100 meteorologists, and grab a rain gauge…