FX, you’re a fucking idiot.
So you claim. Please explain what you mean by that.
By which? The first part? Okay. You may have repeated measures of a phenomenon over time and those observations may be independent or systematically related. For example, if I have a series of coin flips, the probability associated with each event is independent. However, if I’m measuring depression over time, then your score this year isn’t independent from your score last year. People with high scores one year are more likely to have high scores the next year, and vice versa. I’m guessing the same is true for measures of climate. Thus, when you model this - depending somewhat on the kind of model you are using - you have to account for the correlation structure of the data. You can’t use a technique that assumes independence among the observations. That was the modest error in DMCs first response.
However, he or she quite rightly proposed an alternate strategy that does not suffer from a systematic relationship among multiple events. Evaluating the odds associated with one particular score does not violate assumptions of independence.
The butthurt is strong in this one
I usually am not that interested in stories about record cold, snowfall, or unheard of winter events. (they have become far too common)
But this one about the poor Russians suffering in a winter hell beyond words, is too horribly ironic to pass up. Especially the lone picture with the story. What the fuck?
http://www.vocativ.com/world/russia/heating-electricity-20-siberia/
Checking the Russian version (you have to translate it) reads like an old Soviet era comic nightmare.
How the fuck to know if it’s true or not? But it reads like something you can imagine happening. “It’s not the unheard of deadly cold that’s the problem, it’s those damn Facebook posts about how there is no heat or power, that’s the real problem. But we will find them, those troublemakers. Oh, we will find you.”
Goddamn global warming.
Except that you refresh this thread every single god damn time there is a cold snap anywhere in the northern hemisphere.
+6C in Saskatoon today. Unheard of warm spell.
Seriously? Because that’s not what the weather history shows at all.
Sure. At this very link, starting on the 14th the daytime highs run from 10-19C above normal (that’s 18-35 degrees F above normal for you goofy unit people), with nighttime lows 8-17C above normal. It’s not uncommon to have a couple days above freezing in January, but coming up on 2 weeks straight at or near freezing is rare.
It’s also probably the result of ocean currents in the Pacific, or some jet stream perturbations like those that gave us all the cold last year.
But it’s nice to see that you understand that extreme weather in a single location doesn’t say much about climate.
Your posts in this thread suggest otherwise. Three of your first four posts (including your OP) are just that.
Hmm actually just looked at that first link and see the source of your confusion. It’s wrong. It shows -9 high on Fri and -10 Sat. Don’t know where they got that. Snow was melting. It doesn’t do that at -10. Check Environment Canada’s historical weather data if you need a cite.
And don’t bother going to dig up data on similar warm spells. I was making a fucking joke. Every time there’s a cold snap somewhere or a record low temperature is recorded you’re posting it here like it means something. So a bunch of record high temperatures were reported in the province over the weekend and I thought I’d make a silly post in your silly thread.
I sort of got that.
But since you live there, I thought your experience would trump the reported data. It does seem like there is a problem with the figures. The weatherunderground looks more accurate.
One of the first things I did was check the January trend data. Based on that, I would say that area is experiencing warming for the month of January.
Short or long term trends show warming for there, for January.
But oddly, not for February.
edit - So I checked winter, which shows cooling. Which is an example of how seasonal averages can hide things. December and February show cooling, but obviously January shows a warming trend. There is either something very strange going on with the weather/climate, or the measurements are wrong.
Or you’re looking at much too localized data (by time or place) to draw any conclusions about climate as opposed to weather. Which is, of course, the massive blind spot you’ve been displaying for almost 4000 posts now.
The troll has had that pointed out hundreds of times, even by an elementary school kid in this thread. Yet he keeps trolling and the mods here allow it.
Climate is weather over time. And it depends on the region.
How can you not know this?
climate
: a region with particular weather patterns or conditions
: the usual weather conditions in a particular place or region
: the usual or most widespread mood or conditions in a place
You seem to think climate means something else. What are you thinking climate even means?
One of the first things I did was check the January trend data. Based on that, I would say that area is experiencing warming for the month of January.
Short or long term trends show warming for there, for January.
But oddly, not for February.
edit - So I checked winter, which shows cooling. Which is an example of how seasonal averages can hide things. December and February show cooling, but obviously January shows a warming trend. There is either something very strange going on with the weather/climate, or the measurements are wrong.
Yes, weather/climate for Saskatoon. You have to pick a region to look at trends, and time period. (which in this case I used short and long term trends)
What the hell are you thinking climate means?
A one-note troll to boot: he never posts in other non AGW threads.
The most important thing is that when there is a warming trend, we need to expand or narrow the data to find a cooling trend.
The second most important thing is that when there is a cooling trend that we not delve into it further.
The most important thing it’s that you’re an idiot.
The weather network picked up the story, more pictures.
Now it makes sense, the water main burst, which is why the vehicles (and town it seems) is frozen in ice. How fucking horrific.
Thanks global warming. Thanks for nothing.