They’ve been trying for 20 years. They’re not going to stop trying. Though they’ve mostly failed (except Bush v Gore, which was extremely close), they’re learning and experimenting with new strategies.
Most important, with Trump’s Big Lie, they have now secured a crucial missing piece of the puzzle - most Republicans now believe the elections are rigged against them.
And if we know one thing about Republicans, their reaction to “rigging” isn’t un-rigging, it’s counter-rigging, because that’s why they level these charges in the first place.
Why would Republicans ever stop? Their voters aren’t punishing them for it. Polls suggest their voters want them to engage in what we’re calling voter suppression, because they’ve been duped into believing Democrats have done worse and the only way to reverse it is, well, to do the same things.
Conservatives believe that the left is winning. The way you can tell is that they are preparing to overturn popular votes – on the nebulous grounds of rampant voter fraud in urban areas – and there is no pushback when those charges are made. A party confident of winning elections doesn’t resort to those tactics.
The Republicans losing in 2022 and 2024 wouldn’t have to be due to them making a mistake. Sure, that’s one possibility, but there are other ways that Democrats can succeed without relying on Republicans making a mistake.
One particular option, which I’ve thought about starting a separate thread on, is what I think of as the “calling a spade a spade” strategy. This would involve Democrats coming out swinging, calling Trump and the looney Republicans (MTG, Gaetz, Boebert, Gohmert, Jim Jordan, Ron Johnson, etc.) traitors to the country who aren’t worthy of even being called patriotic Americans, much less holding office. I’m not a politician, and this strategy seems obviously risky, which is why I assume it hasn’t been tried, but it’s something I could see coming into play depending on where things stand next summer.
The point is that there are many things Democrats can do without relying on the Republicans to make a mistake.
I think there’s been a fundamental shift. We’re only now starting to see how it ends up shaking out. I mentioned earlier that IMHO the current Democratic Party began in 1992. Parties change. IMHO the current Republican Party was born in the days and months following the election, let’s say 1/6/2021 to pick the most appropriate date. We don’t yet know if they will be punished for becoming this new party. It could turn out that enough moderates abandon the party to make it a guaranteed electoral loser. The point is the Republican Party of 20 years ago, or 10 years ago, or even the party as it was on 11/3/2020, is no longer the party as it currently exists. We don’t yet have any evidence how this new party will do at the polls.
Like many things, patriotism has a good side and a bad side. When I was younger I used to sneer at the showy displays of patriotism popular in America, but now I think they serve an important purpose in a country of immigrants, and I was an idiot for looking down on them.
Someone mentioned self-flagellation above, and that’s a good description of how the US left is currently acting with respect to the founding of their country. This is throwing the baby out with bathwater, and needlessly alienates a huge swath of US citizens.
They used to, and many still do, but it seems to be increasingly replaced by narratives of ‘privilege’ that must ring quite hollow to people who have seem their communities devastated by de-industrialisation.
Are you seriously suggesting the things I listed are necessary to improve minorities’ lot in life? Or that the only way to deal with bullies is to become bullies ourselves? I’m never going to agree to that.
AFAIK the assembly line jobs were generally skilled or semi-skilled ones, reasonably well paid, full time jobs with benefits, where you could have the satisfaction of producing something useful. Walmart or McDonalds jobs are unskilled, low status, ill paid, generally part time and with no benefits, and you have to put up with customers disrespecting you.
Maybe you can fix some of those things like the low pay and the uncertainty, although it seems doubtful any government would actually do this. I don’t think anyone can make these unskilled service occupations higher status though, or make them satisfying.
As for a becoming a professional, I guess it’s possible for a few. But they’d be competing with a lot of younger, better educated, better connected people.
How much control do they need? Obama managed to pass the ACA against the Republicans’ will. In reality I think both parties have been neoliberal since Clinton was president; pro-free trade, pro-services economy, and screw the losers of this process. I remember way back in 90s Michael Moore was advocating for these left behind people, and the response has always been a resounding silence. (Until recently: now it’s to call them racists and blame them for their own problems.)
That isn’t anything Democrats have done in the past and I see no reason they will do so in the next 12-18 months.
I mentioned this earlier but I’ll repeat it because it’s actually what’s happening not what we’d like to see happen:
Republicans are passing voting restriction rules in GOP controlled state legislatures. This will stack the deck for GOP wins in the house. The Democrats have to beg at least two of their own to vote for HR1. That’s why the Democrats are far more likely to lose in 2022.
The left has been insulting Trump non-stop, in every conceivable way since 2016. I’m not sure anyone would even notice if the Democrats implemented your strategy.
Is it correct that the R’s are generally doing better in state elections compared to national ones? What’s the reason for this?
I’m not sure you appreciate what I’m saying here. Yes, they risk being punished by the electorate for what they’ve become. In fact let’s say it’s not a risk, it’s a reality. What they’re attempting is to change the rules so that they cannot be punished at the polls. If fighting fair leads them to defeat (which it will), then they’re not going to fight fair!
Time is against them, demographics are against them, the issues are against them. They understand this and that’s why they’re trying to change the game.
That’s why I mentioned the converse value, which Republicans hold but Democrats don’t. It’s not a two way street. Hard work should = success. That doesn’t mean that everyone who has succeeded did so through hard work, which is what Republicans believe if that person is someone they identify as being a member of their own tribe. Trump himself is the most glaring example. He most certainly didn’t succeed through hard work.
It’s only doubtful that any government would try because the Republicans have been using every advantage they can think of to prevent this sort of thing from being addressed.
He just barely managed. to get that done because the Democrats hadn’t yet realized they should have gotten rid of the legislative filibuster. Had Democrats had any real measure of control since 1992, Obamacare would never have even been created, because we would all have been living in the Hillarycare era since 1993. My guess is. the numbers that LBJ had when he was passing the Great Society legislation in the mid 1960s is what would be required.
We may be talking past each other. Let’s. use a baseball game as an analogy. What I mean is that they could possibly cheat there way to a victory in the win column even if they lost 4-3. If, however, they lose 15-3, even those efforts would prove futile. The question is what will the final score end up actually being in 2022 and 2024.
ETA: And yes, it sucks that we’ve reached this situation. From a practical standpoint, I’m not sure that there are any direct options. The SCOTUS can’t be packed. The legislative filibuster won’t be overturned. This limits the number of direct options. That makes the campaign strategies of the utmost importance. Every non-Trump voter in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona, as well as all in purple House districts, needs to be motivated to get out and vote. As I said, I’m not a politician, so I don’t know what the best strategy to accomplish that may be, but that is where the focus. needs to be.
Yes, they are doing a little better than they are in statewide and national elections. That’s because of the lopsided distribution of voters in most close states. Republicans can utilize that distribution to gerrymander legislative majorities even while losing the state-wide vote. Same principle as the EC.
Honestly that’s an element but it’s not just that.
The Democrats really have never recovered from Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America” as far as state politics goes. There are some states where we definitely see the gerrymandering effect in some states, especially ones that have flipped the governor but have utterly unchanged legislatures.
I think a big thing with state politics is that the Democrats often have trouble making their case, because a big part of the draw to Democrats is government spending on programs, but at the state level it’s tougher to raise taxes without causing flight and states don’t have the ability to borrow like the federal government does (some states have balanced budget amendments - although those are fungible - but even without them the extent of the borrowing that is possible is much smaller). So some voters wind up voting for the GOP to just keep state taxes low.
The other issue is that people are way more likely in state and local elections to either just vote for an incumbent or vote for a party without looking into the specific candidates, and connections and lobbying can be even more impactful than on the federal level. So things can stay very entrenched for a long time, and even perpetual losers in a particular state are often slower to come up with creative ways to make their case.
Very true. It makes me wonder how things will shake out now that that version of the Republican Party (11/8/1994 - 1/6/2021) is seemingly dead. Will there be a lot of state officials getting primaried? Are there going to be situations in which a Democrat who wants to vote strategically should vote in the Republican primary for the old school Republican candidate? It’s another variable to consider, but again something that I hesitate to make a prediction on how it will shake out.
Oh actually another thing is that progressive policy changes have been happening on the state level through referendum which (while generally very positive) has had the effect of hurting the Dems a bit politically - people don’t need to vote for them to get legal weed or some consumer/labor friendly law if they can just vote directly for the law.
Thanks. I think that article is very consistent with my own observations. The way I interpret it is that it’s less that conservatives are “winning”. It’s that conservatives and people with more “working class” ideologies and sensibilities see an America where their values of strong community ties, traditional family units, permanent homes, work that actually provide or support real goods and services (manufacturing, trades, local businesses, police and other first responders) etc. are being threatened by this more “liberal” world centered around urban areas where people make a lot of money doing weird or esoteric stuff they don’t understand, don’t know their neighbors, don’t really spend a lot of time with their families because they work so much (typically hiring nannies or au pairs to act as surrogates), and have these very abstracted or idealistic values on how things “should” be without any real understanding of how things are (at least in their particular world).
I’d argue two things. One, you’re right that Democrats never really recovered from when the Republicans started aggressively using a bottom-up approach to both building a bench and getting control. The Democrats seem to go top-down a lot, concentrating on federal offices and the presidency (while often mocking parties like the Green Party for shooting for the presidency first). The second is that there never has been a widely disseminated Democratic platform. Yes, I know they exist on websites and whatnot, but nobody talks about whatever is on the DNC website or whatever in the way that we all know (roughly) what was in the Contract with America 25+ years later.
That’s because there is no such thing. In the old days the. GOP used to be the Big Tent party, but now it’s the Democrats. Republicans are easy enough ro figure out, there’s the plutocrats and the white, conservative, mostly Christian (including Catholics and Mormons) followers. They’re a cohesive group. Democrats aren’t. There’s various minorities, each with varied interests. The interests of Blacks in inner city Chicago are different than Asians in San Francisco, but also different than affluent Blacks in the suburbs of Detroit, and rural Blacks in Mississippi, and so on. Gay men might not have skin in the game when it comes to trans women participating in women’s sports. Cis -white upper middle class male professionals in the suburbs don’t have the same interests as white women from red states where abortion rights. are being rolled back. The list goes on. That, of course, is why it’s so much more difficult for Democrats to come up with a cohesive strategy.
I think a big part of the issue is that the Democrats have been afraid of their own economic platform since Reagan and Gingrich and the like changed the debate.
The Democrats try to run away from anything that sounds like it’s pro-welfare, pro-regulation, pro-tax etc. And taxes are a bit different because those obviously are an unpleasant experience for everyone, but in general the Dems just aren’t very good at making a positive case for their own economic platform.
And like I said, spending money on government programs is inherently going to be tougher on the state level, but Democrats need to show up and try to make a case, and be willing to get creative with what they’ll support. They have been getting a lot better in recent years in fairness.
I agree that this is what has happened. IMHO the problem is that the. conservatives are placing the blame in the wrong place. Some of that is, admittedly due to far left liberals using slogans that then get turned against middle of the road Democrats, like “defunding the police.” In reality, though, the declines they’ve noted in their communities haven’t occurred at the hands of LGBT people, or the Blacks from inner city Chicago, or Guatemalans crossing the border, or atheists. Those losses that they’ve experienced came at the hands of the very. plutocrats they keep voting back into office.